Cláudio J. Struchiner

Andre de Carvalho, Robson Bonidia, Jude Dzevela Kong et al.

Infectious diseases, transmitted directly or indirectly, are among the leading causes of epidemics and pandemics. Consequently, several open challenges exist in predicting epidemic outbreaks, detecting variants, tracing contacts, discovering new drugs, and fighting misinformation. Artificial Intelligence (AI) can provide tools to deal with these scenarios, demonstrating promising results in the fight against the COVID-19 pandemic. AI is becoming increasingly integrated into various aspects of society. However, ensuring that AI benefits are distributed equitably and that they are used responsibly is crucial. Multiple countries are creating regulations to address these concerns, but the borderless nature of AI requires global cooperation to define regulatory and guideline consensus. Considering this, The Global South AI for Pandemic & Epidemic Preparedness & Response Network (AI4PEP) has developed an initiative comprising 16 projects across 16 countries in the Global South, seeking to strengthen equitable and responsive public health systems that leverage Southern-led responsible AI solutions to improve prevention, preparedness, and response to emerging and re-emerging infectious disease outbreaks. This opinion introduces our branches in Latin American and Caribbean (LAC) countries and discusses AI governance in LAC in the light of biotechnology. Our network in LAC has high potential to help fight infectious diseases, particularly in low- and middle-income countries, generating opportunities for the widespread use of AI techniques to improve the health and well-being of their communities.

Daniel Csillag, Claudio José Struchiner, Guilherme Tegoni Goedert

Quality statistical inference requires a sufficient amount of data, which can be missing or hard to obtain. To this end, prediction-powered inference has risen as a promising methodology, but existing approaches are largely limited to Z-estimation problems such as inference of means and quantiles. In this paper, we apply ideas of prediction-powered inference to e-values. By doing so, we inherit all the usual benefits of e-values -- such as anytime-validity, post-hoc validity and versatile sequential inference -- as well as greatly expand the set of inferences achievable in a prediction-powered manner. In particular, we show that every inference procedure that can be framed in terms of e-values has a prediction-powered counterpart, given by our method. We showcase the effectiveness of our framework across a wide range of inference tasks, from simple hypothesis testing and confidence intervals to more involved procedures for change-point detection and causal discovery, which were out of reach of previous techniques. Our approach is modular and easily integrable into existing algorithms, making it a compelling choice for practical applications.

Daniel Csillag, Claudio José Struchiner, Guilherme Tegoni Goedert

Many algorithms have been recently proposed for causal machine learning. Yet, there is little to no theory on their quality, especially considering finite samples. In this work, we propose a theory based on generalization bounds that provides such guarantees. By introducing a novel change-of-measure inequality, we are able to tightly bound the model loss in terms of the deviation of the treatment propensities over the population, which we show can be empirically limited. Our theory is fully rigorous and holds even in the face of hidden confounding and violations of positivity. We demonstrate our bounds on semi-synthetic and real data, showcasing their remarkable tightness and practical utility.

Daniel Csillag, Claudio José Struchiner, Guilherme Tegoni Goedert

When a machine learning model is deployed, its predictions can alter its environment, as better informed agents strategize to suit their own interests. With such alterations in mind, existing approaches to uncertainty quantification break. In this work we propose a new framework, Strategic Conformal Prediction, which is capable of robust uncertainty quantification in such a setting. Strategic Conformal Prediction is backed by a series of theoretical guarantees spanning marginal coverage, training-conditional coverage, tightness and robustness to misspecification that hold in a distribution-free manner. Experimental analysis further validates our method, showing its remarkable effectiveness in face of arbitrary strategic alterations, whereas other methods break.

Daniel Csillag, Pedro Dall'Antonia, Claudio José Struchiner et al.

Prediction-powered inference is a recent methodology for the safe use of black-box ML models to impute missing data, strengthening inference of statistical parameters. However, many applications require strong properties besides valid inference, such as privacy, robustness or validity under continuous distribution shifts; deriving prediction-powered methods with such guarantees is generally an arduous process, and has to be done case by case. In this paper, we resolve this issue by connecting prediction-powered inference with conformal prediction: by performing imputation through a calibrated conformal set-predictor, we attain validity while achieving additional guarantees in a natural manner. We instantiate our procedure for the inference of means, Z- and M-estimation, as well as e-values and e-value-based procedures. Furthermore, in the case of e-values, ours is the first general prediction-powered procedure that operates off-line. We demonstrate these advantages by applying our method on private and time-series data. Both tasks are nontrivial within the standard prediction-powered framework but become natural under our method.