Bo Chen

Naren Srivaths Raman, Karthikeya Devaprasad, Bo Chen et al.

Even though energy efficient climate control of buildings using model predictive control (MPC) has been widely investigated, most MPC formulations ignore humidity and latent heat. The inclusion of moisture makes the problem considerably more challenging, primarily since a cooling and dehumidifying coil model which accounts for both sensible and latent heat transfers is needed. In this work, we propose an MPC controller in which humidity and latent heat are incorporated in a principled manner. We construct low order data-driven models of a cooling and dehumidifying coil that can be used in the MPC formulation. The resulting controller's performance is tested in simulation using a plant that differs significantly from the model used by the optimizer. Additionally, the performance of the proposed controller is compared with that of a naive MPC controller which does not explicitly consider humidity, and also to that of a conventional rule-based controller. Simulations show that the proposed MPC controller outperforms the other two consistently. It is also observed that the naive MPC formulation which does not consider humidity leads to poor humidity control under certain conditions. Such violations in humidity can adversely affect occupant comfort and health.

Muyao Wang, Zeke Xie, Bo Chen et al.

The influence function serves as an efficient post-hoc interpretability tool that quantifies the impact of training data modifications on model parameters, enabling enhanced model performance, improved generalization, and interpretability insights without the need for expensive retraining processes. Recently, Multivariate Time Series (MTS) analysis has become an important yet challenging task, attracting significant attention. While channel extremely matters to MTS tasks, channel-centric methods are still largely under-explored for MTS. Particularly, no previous work studied the effects of channel information of MTS in order to explore counterfactual effects between these channels and model performance. To fill this gap, we propose a novel Channel-wise Influence (ChInf) method that is the first to estimate the influence of different channels in MTS. Based on ChInf,we naturally derived two channel-wise algorithms by incorporating ChInf into classic MTS tasks. Extensive experiments demonstrate the effectiveness of ChInf and ChInf-based methods in critical MTS analysis tasks, such as MTS anomaly detection and MTS data pruning. Specifically, our ChInf-based methods rank top-1 among all methods for comparison, while previous influence functions do not perform well on MTS anomaly detection tasks and MTS data pruning problem. This fully supports the superiority and necessity of ChInf.

Muyao Wang, Wenchao Chen, Bo Chen

The forecasting of Multivariate Time Series (MTS) has long been an important but challenging task. Due to the non-stationary problem across long-distance time steps, previous studies primarily adopt stationarization method to attenuate the non-stationary problem of the original series for better predictability. However, existing methods always adopt the stationarized series, which ignores the inherent non-stationarity, and has difficulty in modeling MTS with complex distributions due to the lack of stochasticity. To tackle these problems, we first develop a powerful hierarchical probabilistic generative module to consider the non-stationarity and stochastic characteristics within MTS, and then combine it with transformer for a well-defined variational generative dynamic model named Hierarchical Time series Variational Transformer (HTV-Trans), which recovers the intrinsic non-stationary information into temporal dependencies. Being a powerful probabilistic model, HTV-Trans is utilized to learn expressive representations of MTS and applied to forecasting tasks. Extensive experiments on diverse datasets show the efficiency of HTV-Trans on MTS forecasting tasks