Rob Cornish

Muhammad Faaiz Taufiq, Jean-Francois Ton, Rob Cornish et al.

Most off-policy evaluation methods for contextual bandits have focused on the expected outcome of a policy, which is estimated via methods that at best provide only asymptotic guarantees. However, in many applications, the expectation may not be the best measure of performance as it does not capture the variability of the outcome. In addition, particularly in safety-critical settings, stronger guarantees than asymptotic correctness may be required. To address these limitations, we consider a novel application of conformal prediction to contextual bandits. Given data collected under a behavioral policy, we propose \emph{conformal off-policy prediction} (COPP), which can output reliable predictive intervals for the outcome under a new target policy. We provide theoretical finite-sample guarantees without making any additional assumptions beyond the standard contextual bandit setup, and empirically demonstrate the utility of COPP compared with existing methods on synthetic and real-world data.

Rob Cornish, Muhammad Faaiz Taufiq, Arnaud Doucet et al.

Digital twins are virtual systems designed to predict how a real-world process will evolve in response to interventions. This modelling paradigm holds substantial promise in many applications, but rigorous procedures for assessing their accuracy are essential for safety-critical settings. We consider how to assess the accuracy of a digital twin using real-world data. We formulate this as causal inference problem, which leads to a precise definition of what it means for a twin to be "correct" appropriate for many applications. Unfortunately, fundamental results from causal inference mean observational data cannot be used to certify that a twin is correct in this sense unless potentially tenuous assumptions are made, such as that the data are unconfounded. To avoid these assumptions, we propose instead to find situations in which the twin is not correct, and present a general-purpose statistical procedure for doing so. Our approach yields reliable and actionable information about the twin under only the assumption of an i.i.d. dataset of observational trajectories, and remains sound even if the data are confounded. We apply our methodology to a large-scale, real-world case study involving sepsis modelling within the Pulse Physiology Engine, which we assess using the MIMIC-III dataset of ICU patients.

Richie Yeung, Aleks Kissinger, Rob Cornish

We consider the problem of synthesizing Clifford quantum circuits for devices with all-to-all qubit connectivity. We approach this task as a reinforcement learning problem in which an agent learns to discover a sequence of elementary Clifford gates that reduces a given symplectic matrix representation of a Clifford circuit to the identity. This formulation permits a simple learning curriculum based on random walks from the identity. We introduce a novel neural network architecture that is equivariant to qubit relabelings of the symplectic matrix representation, and which is size-agnostic, allowing a single learned policy to be applied across different qubit counts without circuit splicing or network reparameterization. On six-qubit Clifford circuits, the largest regime for which optimal references are available, our agent finds circuits within one two-qubit gate of optimality in milliseconds per instance, and finds optimal circuits in 99.2% of instances within seconds per instance. After continued training on ten-qubit instances, the agent scales to unseen Clifford tableaus with up to thirty qubits, including targets generated from circuits with over a thousand Clifford gates, where it achieves lower average two-qubit gate counts than Qiskit's Aaronson-Gottesman and greedy Clifford synthesizers.

Rob Cornish

Cornish (2024) recently gave a general theory of neural network symmetrisation in the abstract context of Markov categories. We give a high-level overview of these results, and their concrete implications for the symmetrisation of deterministic functions and of Markov kernels.

Rob Cornish

We consider the problem of symmetrising a neural network along a group homomorphism: given a homomorphism $\varphi : H \to G$, we would like a procedure that converts $H$-equivariant neural networks to $G$-equivariant ones. We formulate this in terms of Markov categories, which allows us to consider neural networks whose outputs may be stochastic, but with measure-theoretic details abstracted away. We obtain a flexible and compositional framework for symmetrisation that relies on minimal assumptions about the structure of the group and the underlying neural network architecture. Our approach recovers existing canonicalisation and averaging techniques for symmetrising deterministic models, and extends to provide a novel methodology for symmetrising stochastic models also. Beyond this, our findings also demonstrate the utility of Markov categories for addressing complex problems in machine learning in a conceptually clear yet mathematically precise way.

Sahra Ghalebikesabi, Rob Cornish, Luke J. Kelly et al.

We propose a variational autoencoder architecture to model both ignorable and nonignorable missing data using pattern-set mixtures as proposed by Little (1993). Our model explicitly learns to cluster the missing data into missingness pattern sets based on the observed data and missingness masks. Underpinning our approach is the assumption that the data distribution under missingness is probabilistically semi-supervised by samples from the observed data distribution. Our setup trades off the characteristics of ignorable and nonignorable missingness and can thus be applied to data of both types. We evaluate our method on a wide range of data sets with different types of missingness and achieve state-of-the-art imputation performance. Our model outperforms many common imputation algorithms, especially when the amount of missing data is high and the missingness mechanism is nonignorable.

Anthony Caterini, Rob Cornish, Dino Sejdinovic et al.

Continuously-indexed flows (CIFs) have recently achieved improvements over baseline normalizing flows on a variety of density estimation tasks. CIFs do not possess a closed-form marginal density, and so, unlike standard flows, cannot be plugged in directly to a variational inference (VI) scheme in order to produce a more expressive family of approximate posteriors. However, we show here how CIFs can be used as part of an auxiliary VI scheme to formulate and train expressive posterior approximations in a natural way. We exploit the conditional independence structure of multi-layer CIFs to build the required auxiliary inference models, which we show empirically yield low-variance estimators of the model evidence. We then demonstrate the advantages of CIFs over baseline flows in VI problems when the posterior distribution of interest possesses a complicated topology, obtaining improved results in both the Bayesian inference and surrogate maximum likelihood settings.

Rob Cornish, Anthony L. Caterini, George Deligiannidis et al.

We show that normalising flows become pathological when used to model targets whose supports have complicated topologies. In this scenario, we prove that a flow must become arbitrarily numerically noninvertible in order to approximate the target closely. This result has implications for all flow-based models, and especially Residual Flows (ResFlows), which explicitly control the Lipschitz constant of the bijection used. To address this, we propose Continuously Indexed Flows (CIFs), which replace the single bijection used by normalising flows with a continuously indexed family of bijections, and which can intuitively "clean up" mass that would otherwise be misplaced by a single bijection. We show theoretically that CIFs are not subject to the same topological limitations as normalising flows, and obtain better empirical performance on a variety of models and benchmarks.