John Anderson

Lizao Li, Rob Carver, Ignacio Lopez-Gomez et al.

Uncertainty quantification is crucial to decision-making. A prominent example is probabilistic forecasting in numerical weather prediction. The dominant approach to representing uncertainty in weather forecasting is to generate an ensemble of forecasts. This is done by running many physics-based simulations under different conditions, which is a computationally costly process. We propose to amortize the computational cost by emulating these forecasts with deep generative diffusion models learned from historical data. The learned models are highly scalable with respect to high-performance computing accelerators and can sample hundreds to tens of thousands of realistic weather forecasts at low cost. When designed to emulate operational ensemble forecasts, the generated ones are similar to physics-based ensembles in important statistical properties and predictive skill. When designed to correct biases present in the operational forecasting system, the generated ensembles show improved probabilistic forecast metrics. They are more reliable and forecast probabilities of extreme weather events more accurately. While this work demonstrates the utility of the methodology by focusing on weather forecasting, the generative artificial intelligence methodology can be extended for uncertainty quantification in climate modeling, where we believe the generation of very large ensembles of climate projections will play an increasingly important role in climate risk assessment.

Jaime Garcia-Martinez, David Diaz-Guerra, John Anderson et al.

This paper introduces The Spheres dataset, multitrack orchestral recordings designed to advance machine learning research in music source separation and related MIR tasks within the classical music domain. The dataset is composed of over one hour recordings of musical pieces performed by the Colibrì Ensemble at The Spheres recording studio, capturing two canonical works - Tchaikovsky's Romeo and Juliet and Mozart's Symphony No. 40 - along with chromatic scales and solo excerpts for each instrument. The recording setup employed 23 microphones, including close spot, main, and ambient microphones, enabling the creation of realistic stereo mixes with controlled bleeding and providing isolated stems for supervised training of source separation models. In addition, room impulse responses were estimated for each instrument position, offering valuable acoustic characterization of the recording space. We present the dataset structure, acoustic analysis, and baseline evaluations using X-UMX based models for orchestral family separation and microphone debleeding. Results highlight both the potential and the challenges of source separation in complex orchestral scenarios, underscoring the dataset's value for benchmarking and for exploring new approaches to separation, localization, dereverberation, and immersive rendering of classical music.

Nicholas Skytland, Lauren Parsons, Alicia Llewellyn et al.

Artificial intelligence (AI) alignment is fundamentally a formation problem, not only a safety problem. As Large Language Models (LLMs) increasingly mediate moral deliberation and spiritual inquiry, they do more than provide information; they function as instruments of digital catechesis, actively shaping and ordering human understanding, decision-making, and moral reflection. To make this formative influence visible and measurable, we introduce the Flourishing AI Benchmark: Christian Single-Turn (FAI-C-ST), a framework designed to evaluate Frontier Model responses against a Christian understanding of human flourishing across seven dimensions. By comparing 20 Frontier Models against both pluralistic and Christian-specific criteria, we show that current AI systems are not worldview-neutral. Instead, they default to a Procedural Secularism that lacks the grounding necessary to sustain theological coherence, resulting in a systematic performance decline of approximately 17 points across all dimensions of flourishing. Most critically, there is a 31-point decline in the Faith and Spirituality dimension. These findings suggest that the performance gap in values alignment is not a technical limitation, but arises from training objectives that prioritize broad acceptability and safety over deep, internally coherent moral or theological reasoning.

Zhong Yi Wan, Ricardo Baptista, Yi-fan Chen et al.

We introduce a two-stage probabilistic framework for statistical downscaling using unpaired data. Statistical downscaling seeks a probabilistic map to transform low-resolution data from a biased coarse-grained numerical scheme to high-resolution data that is consistent with a high-fidelity scheme. Our framework tackles the problem by composing two transformations: (i) a debiasing step via an optimal transport map, and (ii) an upsampling step achieved by a probabilistic diffusion model with a posteriori conditional sampling. This approach characterizes a conditional distribution without needing paired data, and faithfully recovers relevant physical statistics from biased samples. We demonstrate the utility of the proposed approach on one- and two-dimensional fluid flow problems, which are representative of the core difficulties present in numerical simulations of weather and climate. Our method produces realistic high-resolution outputs from low-resolution inputs, by upsampling resolutions of 8x and 16x. Moreover, our procedure correctly matches the statistics of physical quantities, even when the low-frequency content of the inputs and outputs do not match, a crucial but difficult-to-satisfy assumption needed by current state-of-the-art alternatives. Code for this work is available at: https://github.com/google-research/swirl-dynamics/tree/main/swirl_dynamics/projects/probabilistic_diffusion.

Zhong Yi Wan, Ignacio Lopez-Gomez, Robert Carver et al.

Accurate, actionable climate information at km scales is crucial for robust natural hazard risk assessment and infrastructure planning. Simulating climate at these resolutions remains intractable, forcing reliance on downscaling: either physics-based or statistical methods that transform climate simulations from coarse to impact-relevant resolutions. One major challenge for downscaling is to comprehensively capture the interdependency among climate processes of interest, a prerequisite for representing climate hazards. However, current approaches either lack the desired scalability or are bespoke to specific types of hazards. We introduce GenFocal, a computationally efficient, general-purpose, end-to-end generative framework that gives rise to full probabilistic characterizations of complex climate processes interacting at fine spatiotemporal scales. GenFocal more accurately assesses extreme risk in the current climate than leading approaches, including one used in the US 5th National Climate Assessment. It produces plausible tracks of tropical cyclones, providing accurate statistics of their genesis and evolution, even when they are absent from the corresponding climate simulations. GenFocal also shows compelling results that are consistent with the literature on projecting climate impact on decadal timescales. GenFocal revolutionizes how climate simulations can be efficiently augmented with observations and harnessed to enable future climate impact assessments at the spatiotemporal scales relevant to local and regional communities. We believe this work establishes genAI as an effective paradigm for modeling complex, high-dimensional multivariate statistical correlations that have deterred precise quantification of climate risks associated with hazards such as wildfires, extreme heat, tropical cyclones, and flooding; thereby enabling the evaluation of adaptation strategies.

Fantine Huot, R. Lily Hu, Matthias Ihme et al.

Identifying regions that have high likelihood for wildfires is a key component of land and forestry management and disaster preparedness. We create a data set by aggregating nearly a decade of remote-sensing data and historical fire records to predict wildfires. This prediction problem is framed as three machine learning tasks. Results are compared and analyzed for four different deep learning models to estimate wildfire likelihood. The results demonstrate that deep learning models can successfully identify areas of high fire likelihood using aggregated data about vegetation, weather, and topography with an AUC of 83%.

Tao Wu, Ellie Ka-In Chio, Heng-Tze Cheng et al.

Many recent advances in neural information retrieval models, which predict top-K items given a query, learn directly from a large training set of (query, item) pairs. However, they are often insufficient when there are many previously unseen (query, item) combinations, often referred to as the cold start problem. Furthermore, the search system can be biased towards items that are frequently shown to a query previously, also known as the 'rich get richer' (a.k.a. feedback loop) problem. In light of these problems, we observed that most online content platforms have both a search and a recommender system that, while having heterogeneous input spaces, can be connected through their common output item space and a shared semantic representation. In this paper, we propose a new Zero-Shot Heterogeneous Transfer Learning framework that transfers learned knowledge from the recommender system component to improve the search component of a content platform. First, it learns representations of items and their natural-language features by predicting (item, item) correlation graphs derived from the recommender system as an auxiliary task. Then, the learned representations are transferred to solve the target search retrieval task, performing query-to-item prediction without having seen any (query, item) pairs in training. We conduct online and offline experiments on one of the world's largest search and recommender systems from Google, and present the results and lessons learned. We demonstrate that the proposed approach can achieve high performance on offline search retrieval tasks, and more importantly, achieved significant improvements on relevance and user interactions over the highly-optimized production system in online experiments.

Steffen Rendle, Walid Krichene, Li Zhang et al.

Embedding based models have been the state of the art in collaborative filtering for over a decade. Traditionally, the dot product or higher order equivalents have been used to combine two or more embeddings, e.g., most notably in matrix factorization. In recent years, it was suggested to replace the dot product with a learned similarity e.g. using a multilayer perceptron (MLP). This approach is often referred to as neural collaborative filtering (NCF). In this work, we revisit the experiments of the NCF paper that popularized learned similarities using MLPs. First, we show that with a proper hyperparameter selection, a simple dot product substantially outperforms the proposed learned similarities. Second, while a MLP can in theory approximate any function, we show that it is non-trivial to learn a dot product with an MLP. Finally, we discuss practical issues that arise when applying MLP based similarities and show that MLPs are too costly to use for item recommendation in production environments while dot products allow to apply very efficient retrieval algorithms. We conclude that MLPs should be used with care as embedding combiner and that dot products might be a better default choice.

John Anderson, Qingqing Huang, Walid Krichene et al.

We extend the idea of word pieces in natural language models to machine learning tasks on opaque ids. This is achieved by applying hash functions to map each id to multiple hash tokens in a much smaller space, similarly to a Bloom filter. We show that by applying a multi-layer Transformer to these Bloom filter digests, we are able to obtain models with high accuracy. They outperform models of a similar size without hashing and, to a large degree, models of a much larger size trained using sampled softmax with the same computational budget. Our key observation is that it is important to use a multi-layer Transformer for Bloom filter digests to remove ambiguity in the hashed input. We believe this provides an alternative method to solving problems with large vocabulary size.

Francois Belletti, Karthik Lakshmanan, Walid Krichene et al.

Recommender system research suffers from a disconnect between the size of academic data sets and the scale of industrial production systems. In order to bridge that gap, we propose to generate large-scale user/item interaction data sets by expanding pre-existing public data sets. Our key contribution is a technique that expands user/item incidence matrices matrices to large numbers of rows (users), columns (items), and non-zero values (interactions). The proposed method adapts Kronecker Graph Theory to preserve key higher order statistical properties such as the fat-tailed distribution of user engagements, item popularity, and singular value spectra of user/item interaction matrices. Preserving such properties is key to building large realistic synthetic data sets which in turn can be employed reliably to benchmark recommender systems and the systems employed to train them. We further apply our stochastic expansion algorithm to the binarized MovieLens 20M data set, which comprises 20M interactions between 27K movies and 138K users. The resulting expanded data set has 1.2B ratings, 2.2M users, and 855K items, which can be scaled up or down.

Francois Belletti, Karthik Lakshmanan, Walid Krichene et al.

Recommender System research suffers currently from a disconnect between the size of academic data sets and the scale of industrial production systems. In order to bridge that gap we propose to generate more massive user/item interaction data sets by expanding pre-existing public data sets. User/item incidence matrices record interactions between users and items on a given platform as a large sparse matrix whose rows correspond to users and whose columns correspond to items. Our technique expands such matrices to larger numbers of rows (users), columns (items) and non zero values (interactions) while preserving key higher order statistical properties. We adapt the Kronecker Graph Theory to user/item incidence matrices and show that the corresponding fractal expansions preserve the fat-tailed distributions of user engagements, item popularity and singular value spectra of user/item interaction matrices. Preserving such properties is key to building large realistic synthetic data sets which in turn can be employed reliably to benchmark Recommender Systems and the systems employed to train them. We provide algorithms to produce such expansions and apply them to the MovieLens 20 million data set comprising 20 million ratings of 27K movies by 138K users. The resulting expanded data set has 10 billion ratings, 864K items and 2 million users in its smaller version and can be scaled up or down. A larger version features 655 billion ratings, 7 million items and 17 million users.

Walid Krichene, Nicolas Mayoraz, Steffen Rendle et al.

We study the problem of learning similarity functions over very large corpora using neural network embedding models. These models are typically trained using SGD with sampling of random observed and unobserved pairs, with a number of samples that grows quadratically with the corpus size, making it expensive to scale to very large corpora. We propose new efficient methods to train these models without having to sample unobserved pairs. Inspired by matrix factorization, our approach relies on adding a global quadratic penalty to all pairs of examples and expressing this term as the matrix-inner-product of two generalized Gramians. We show that the gradient of this term can be efficiently computed by maintaining estimates of the Gramians, and develop variance reduction schemes to improve the quality of the estimates. We conduct large-scale experiments that show a significant improvement in training time and generalization quality compared to traditional sampling methods.

Kim Albertsson, Piero Altoe, Dustin Anderson et al.

Machine learning has been applied to several problems in particle physics research, beginning with applications to high-level physics analysis in the 1990s and 2000s, followed by an explosion of applications in particle and event identification and reconstruction in the 2010s. In this document we discuss promising future research and development areas for machine learning in particle physics. We detail a roadmap for their implementation, software and hardware resource requirements, collaborative initiatives with the data science community, academia and industry, and training the particle physics community in data science. The main objective of the document is to connect and motivate these areas of research and development with the physics drivers of the High-Luminosity Large Hadron Collider and future neutrino experiments and identify the resource needs for their implementation. Additionally we identify areas where collaboration with external communities will be of great benefit.