Wei Zhang

Wei Zhang, Yueyue Jiang, Junyu Dong et al.

Forecasts by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF; EC for short) can provide a basis for the establishment of maritime-disaster warning systems, but they contain some systematic biases.The fifth-generation EC atmospheric reanalysis (ERA5) data have high accuracy, but are delayed by about 5 days. To overcome this issue, a spatiotemporal deep-learning method could be used for nonlinear mapping between EC and ERA5 data, which would improve the quality of EC wind forecast data in real time. In this study, we developed the Multi-Task-Double Encoder Trajectory Gated Recurrent Unit (MT-DETrajGRU) model, which uses an improved double-encoder forecaster architecture to model the spatiotemporal sequence of the U and V components of the wind field; we designed a multi-task learning loss function to correct wind speed and wind direction simultaneously using only one model. The study area was the western North Pacific (WNP), and real-time rolling bias corrections were made for 10-day wind-field forecasts released by the EC between December 2020 and November 2021, divided into four seasons. Compared with the original EC forecasts, after correction using the MT-DETrajGRU model the wind speed and wind direction biases in the four seasons were reduced by 8-11% and 9-14%, respectively. In addition, the proposed method modelled the data uniformly under different weather conditions. The correction performance under normal and typhoon conditions was comparable, indicating that the data-driven mode constructed here is robust and generalizable.

W. Zhang, H. Liu, P. Li et al.

The goal of convective storm nowcasting is local prediction of severe and imminent convective storms. Here, we consider the convective storm nowcasting problem from the perspective of machine learning. First, we use a pixel-wise sampling method to construct spatiotemporal features for nowcasting, and flexibly adjust the proportions of positive and negative samples in the training set to mitigate class-imbalance issues. Second, we employ a concise two-stream convolutional neural network to extract spatial and temporal cues for nowcasting. This simplifies the network structure, reduces the training time requirement, and improves classification accuracy. The two-stream network used both radar and satellite data. In the resulting two-stream, fused convolutional neural network, some of the parameters are entered into a single-stream convolutional neural network, but it can learn the features of many data. Further, considering the relevance of classification and regression tasks, we develop a multi-task learning strategy that predicts the labels used in such tasks. We integrate two-stream multi-task learning into a single convolutional neural network. Given the compact architecture, this network is more efficient and easier to optimize than existing recurrent neural networks.

Zhaowen Wang, Wei Zhang, Zhiming Wang

Differentiable Architecture Search (DARTS) provides a baseline for searching effective network architectures based gradient, but it is accompanied by huge computational overhead in searching and training network architecture. Recently, many novel works have improved DARTS. Particularly, Partially-Connected DARTS(PC-DARTS) proposed the partial channel sampling technique which achieved good results. In this work, we found that the backbone provided by DARTS is prone to overfitting. To mitigate this problem, we propose an approach named Group-DARTS with Attention (G-DARTS-A), using multiple groups of channels for searching. Inspired by the partially sampling strategy of PC-DARTS, we use groups channels to sample the super-network to perform a more efficient search while maintaining the relative integrity of the network information. In order to relieve the competition between channel groups and keep channel balance, we follow the attention mechanism in Squeeze-and-Excitation Network. Each group of channels shares defined weights thence they can provide different suggestion for searching. The searched architecture is more powerful and better adapted to different deployments. Specifically, by only using the attention module on DARTS we achieved an error rate of 2.82%/16.36% on CIFAR10/100 with 0.3GPU-days for search process on CIFAR10. Apply our G-DARTS-A to DARTS/PC-DARTS, an error rate of 2.57%/2.61% on CIFAR10 with 0.5/0.4 GPU-days is achieved.

Wei Zhang, Lei Han, Juanzhen Sun et al.

Convective storm nowcasting has attracted substantial attention in various fields. Existing methods under a deep learning framework rely primarily on radar data. Although they perform nowcast storm advection well, it is still challenging to nowcast storm initiation and growth, due to the limitations of the radar observations. This paper describes the first attempt to nowcast storm initiation, growth, and advection simultaneously under a deep learning framework using multi-source meteorological data. To this end, we present a multi-channel 3D-cube successive convolution network (3D-SCN). As real-time re-analysis meteorological data can now provide valuable atmospheric boundary layer thermal dynamic information, which is essential to predict storm initiation and growth, both raw 3D radar and re-analysis data are used directly without any handcraft feature engineering. These data are formulated as multi-channel 3D cubes, to be fed into our network, which are convolved by cross-channel 3D convolutions. By stacking successive convolutional layers without pooling, we build an end-to-end trainable model for nowcasting. Experimental results show that deep learning methods achieve better performance than traditional extrapolation methods. The qualitative analyses of 3D-SCN show encouraging results of nowcasting of storm initiation, growth, and advection.