4.5MLOct 6, 2025
Modular and Adaptive Conformal Prediction for Sequential Models via Residual DecompositionWilliam Zhang, Saurabh Amin, Georgia Perakis
Conformal prediction offers finite-sample coverage guarantees under minimal assumptions. However, existing methods treat the entire modeling process as a black box, overlooking opportunities to exploit modular structure. We introduce a conformal prediction framework for two-stage sequential models, where an upstream predictor generates intermediate representations for a downstream model. By decomposing the overall prediction residual into stage-specific components, our method enables practitioners to attribute uncertainty to specific pipeline stages. We develop a risk-controlled parameter selection procedure using family-wise error rate (FWER) control to calibrate stage-wise scaling parameters, and propose an adaptive extension for non-stationary settings that preserves long-run coverage guarantees. Experiments on synthetic distribution shifts, as well as real-world supply chain and stock market data, demonstrate that our approach maintains coverage under conditions that degrade standard conformal methods, while providing interpretable stage-wise uncertainty attribution. This framework offers diagnostic advantages and robust coverage that standard conformal methods lack.
6.7CLJul 16, 2025
Translationese-index: Using Likelihood Ratios for Graded and Generalizable Measurement of TranslationeseYikang Liu, Wanyang Zhang, Yiming Wang et al.
Translationese refers to linguistic properties that usually occur in translated texts. Previous works study translationese by framing it as a binary classification between original texts and translated texts. In this paper, we argue that translationese should be graded instead of binary and propose the first measure for translationese -- the translationese-index (T-index), computed from the likelihood ratios of two contrastively fine-tuned language models (LMs). We use synthesized translations and translations in the wild to evaluate T-index's generalizability in cross-domain settings and its validity against human judgments. Our results show that T-index can generalize to unseen genres, authors, and language pairs. Moreover, T-index computed using two 0.5B LMs fine-tuned on only 1-5k pairs of synthetic data can effectively capture translationese, as demonstrated by alignment with human pointwise ratings and pairwise judgments. Additionally, the correlation between T-index and existing machine translation (MT) quality estimation (QE) metrics such as BLEU and COMET is low, suggesting that T-index is not covered by these metrics and can serve as a complementary metric in MT QE.
1.2COMay 1, 2018
State Diagrams of a Class of Singular LFSR and Their Applications to the Construction of de Bruijn CyclesXiaoFang Wang, YuJuan Sun, WeiGuo Zhang
The state diagrams of a class of singular linear feedback shift registers (LFSR) are discussed. It is shown that the state diagrams of the given LFSR have special structures. An algorithm is presented to construct a new class of de Bruijn cycles from the state diagrams of these singular LFSR.