Yu Wang

Zeyu Sun, Monica G. Bobra, Xiantong Wang et al.

We consider the flare prediction problem that distinguishes flare-imminent active regions that produce an M- or X-class flare in the future 24 hours, from quiet active regions that do not produce any flare within $\pm 24$ hours. Using line-of-sight magnetograms and parameters of active regions in two data products covering Solar Cycle 23 and 24, we train and evaluate two deep learning algorithms -- CNN and LSTM -- and their stacking ensembles. The decisions of CNN are explained using visual attribution methods. We have the following three main findings. (1) LSTM trained on data from two solar cycles achieves significantly higher True Skill Scores (TSS) than that trained on data from a single solar cycle with a confidence level of at least 0.95. (2) On data from Solar Cycle 23, a stacking ensemble that combines predictions from LSTM and CNN using the TSS criterion achieves significantly higher TSS than the "select-best" strategy with a confidence level of at least 0.95. (3) A visual attribution method called Integrated Gradients is able to attribute the CNN's predictions of flares to the emerging magnetic flux in the active region. It also reveals a limitation of CNN as a flare prediction method using line-of-sight magnetograms: it treats the polarity artifact of line-of-sight magnetograms as positive evidence of flares.

Yu Wang, Alfred Hero

We propose a new graphical model inference procedure, called SG-PALM, for learning conditional dependency structure of high-dimensional tensor-variate data. Unlike most other tensor graphical models the proposed model is interpretable and computationally scalable to high dimension. Physical interpretability follows from the Sylvester generative (SG) model on which SG-PALM is based: the model is exact for any observation process that is a solution of a partial differential equation of Poisson type. Scalability follows from the fast proximal alternating linearized minimization (PALM) procedure that SG-PALM uses during training. We establish that SG-PALM converges linearly (i.e., geometric convergence rate) to a global optimum of its objective function. We demonstrate the scalability and accuracy of SG-PALM for an important but challenging climate prediction problem: spatio-temporal forecasting of solar flares from multimodal imaging data.

Yu Wang, Byoungwook Jang, Alfred Hero

This paper introduces the Sylvester graphical lasso (SyGlasso) that captures multiway dependencies present in tensor-valued data. The model is based on the Sylvester equation that defines a generative model. The proposed model complements the tensor graphical lasso (Greenewald et al., 2019) that imposes a Kronecker sum model for the inverse covariance matrix by providing an alternative Kronecker sum model that is generative and interpretable. A nodewise regression approach is adopted for estimating the conditional independence relationships among variables. The statistical convergence of the method is established, and empirical studies are provided to demonstrate the recovery of meaningful conditional dependency graphs. We apply the SyGlasso to an electroencephalography (EEG) study to compare the brain connectivity of alcoholic and nonalcoholic subjects. We demonstrate that our model can simultaneously estimate both the brain connectivity and its temporal dependencies.