Christoph Koller

Christoph Koller, Göran Kauermann, Xiao Xiang Zhu

Technological and computational advances continuously drive forward the broad field of deep learning. In recent years, the derivation of quantities describing theuncertainty in the prediction - which naturally accompanies the modeling process - has sparked general interest in the deep learning community. Often neglected in the machine learning setting is the human uncertainty that influences numerous labeling processes. As the core of this work, label uncertainty is explicitly embedded into the training process via distributional labels. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach on image classification with a remote sensing data set that contains multiple label votes by domain experts for each image: The incorporation of label uncertainty helps the model to generalize better to unseen data and increases model performance. Similar to existing calibration methods, the distributional labels lead to better-calibrated probabilities, which in turn yield more certain and trustworthy predictions.

Katharina Hechinger, Christoph Koller, Xiao Xiang Zhu et al.

Uncertainty in machine learning models is a timely and vast field of research. In supervised learning, uncertainty can already occur in the first stage of the training process, the annotation phase. This scenario is particularly evident when some instances cannot be definitively classified. In other words, there is inevitable ambiguity in the annotation step and hence, not necessarily a "ground truth" associated with each instance. The main idea of this work is to drop the assumption of a ground truth label and instead embed the annotations into a multidimensional space. This embedding is derived from the empirical distribution of annotations in a Bayesian setup, modeled via a Dirichlet-Multinomial framework. We estimate the model parameters and posteriors using a stochastic Expectation Maximization algorithm with Markov Chain Monte Carlo steps. The methods developed in this paper readily extend to various situations where multiple annotators independently label instances. To showcase the generality of the proposed approach, we apply our approach to three benchmark datasets for image classification and Natural Language Inference. Besides the embeddings, we can investigate the resulting correlation matrices, which reflect the semantic similarities of the original classes very well for all three exemplary datasets.

Yuanyuan Wang, Qian Song, Dawood Wasif et al.

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) is essential for assessing the reliability of Earth observation (EO) products. However, the extensive use of machine learning models in EO introduces an additional layer of complexity, as those models themselves are inherently uncertain. While various UQ methods do exist for machine learning models, their performance on EO datasets remains largely unevaluated. A key challenge in the community is the absence of the ground truth for uncertainty, i.e. how certain the uncertainty estimates are, apart from the labels for the image/signal. This article fills this gap by introducing three benchmark datasets specifically designed for UQ in EO machine learning models. These datasets address three common problem types in EO: regression, image segmentation, and scene classification. They enable a transparent comparison of different UQ methods for EO machine learning models. We describe the creation and characteristics of each dataset, including data sources, preprocessing steps, and label generation, with a particular focus on calculating the reference uncertainty. We also showcase baseline performance of several machine learning models on each dataset, highlighting the utility of these benchmarks for model development and comparison. Overall, this article offers a valuable resource for researchers and practitioners working in artificial intelligence for EO, promoting a more accurate and reliable quality measure of the outputs of machine learning models. The dataset and code are accessible via https://gitlab.lrz.de/ai4eo/WG_Uncertainty.