TEMPO: Prompt-based Generative Pre-trained Transformer for Time Series ForecastingDefu Cao, Furong Jia, Sercan O Arik et al.
The past decade has witnessed significant advances in time series modeling with deep learning. While achieving state-of-the-art results, the best-performing architectures vary highly across applications and domains. Meanwhile, for natural language processing, the Generative Pre-trained Transformer (GPT) has demonstrated impressive performance via training one general-purpose model across various textual datasets. It is intriguing to explore whether GPT-type architectures can be effective for time series, capturing the intrinsic dynamic attributes and leading to significant accuracy improvements. In this paper, we propose a novel framework, TEMPO, that can effectively learn time series representations. We focus on utilizing two essential inductive biases of the time series task for pre-trained models: (i) decomposition of the complex interaction between trend, seasonal and residual components; and (ii) introducing the design of prompts to facilitate distribution adaptation in different types of time series. TEMPO expands the capability for dynamically modeling real-world temporal phenomena from data within diverse domains. Our experiments demonstrate the superior performance of TEMPO over state-of-the-art methods on zero shot setting for a number of time series benchmark datasets. This performance gain is observed not only in scenarios involving previously unseen datasets but also in scenarios with multi-modal inputs. This compelling finding highlights TEMPO's potential to constitute a foundational model-building framework.
Region2Vec: Community Detection on Spatial Networks Using Graph Embedding with Node Attributes and Spatial InteractionsYunlei Liang, Jiawei Zhu, Wen Ye et al.
Community Detection algorithms are used to detect densely connected components in complex networks and reveal underlying relationships among components. As a special type of networks, spatial networks are usually generated by the connections among geographic regions. Identifying the spatial network communities can help reveal the spatial interaction patterns, understand the hidden regional structures and support regional development decision-making. Given the recent development of Graph Convolutional Networks (GCN) and its powerful performance in identifying multi-scale spatial interactions, we proposed an unsupervised GCN-based community detection method "region2vec" on spatial networks. Our method first generates node embeddings for regions that share common attributes and have intense spatial interactions, and then applies clustering algorithms to detect communities based on their embedding similarity and spatial adjacency. Experimental results show that while existing methods trade off either attribute similarities or spatial interactions for one another, "region2vec" maintains a great balance between both and performs the best when one wants to maximize both attribute similarities and spatial interactions within communities.
When LLM Meets Time Series: Can LLMs Perform Multi-Step Time Series Reasoning and InferenceWen Ye, Jinbo Liu, Defu Cao et al.
The rapid advancement of Large Language Models (LLMs) has sparked growing interest in their application to time series analysis tasks. However, their ability to perform complex reasoning over temporal data in real-world application domains remains underexplored. To move toward this goal, a first step is to establish a rigorous benchmark dataset for evaluation. In this work, we introduce the TSAIA Benchmark, a first attempt to evaluate LLMs as time-series AI assistants. To ensure both scientific rigor and practical relevance, we surveyed over 20 academic publications and identified 33 real-world task formulations. The benchmark encompasses a broad spectrum of challenges, ranging from constraint-aware forecasting to anomaly detection with threshold calibration: tasks that require compositional reasoning and multi-step time series analysis. The question generator is designed to be dynamic and extensible, supporting continuous expansion as new datasets or task types are introduced. Given the heterogeneous nature of the tasks, we adopt task-specific success criteria and tailored inference-quality metrics to ensure meaningful evaluation for each task. We apply this benchmark to assess eight state-of-the-art LLMs under a unified evaluation protocol. Our analysis reveals limitations in current models' ability to assemble complex time series analysis workflows, underscoring the need for specialized methodologies for domain-specific adaptation. Our benchmark is available at https://huggingface.co/datasets/Melady/TSAIA, and the code is available at https://github.com/USC-Melady/TSAIA.
19.4ROJun 25
E-TTS: A New Embodied Test-Time Scaling Framework for Robotic ManipulationWen Ye, Peiyan Li, Tingyu Yuan et al.
Recently, a few works have made early attempts to study test-time scaling for embodied tasks. However, two major challenges remain unsolved: (1) reasoning can effectively improve the performance of the policy, but its scaling mechanism has seldom been studied; (2) historical information is essential, as embodied tasks are inherently long-horizon and sequential, making sole reliance on current observations for action scaling inadequate due to the lack of historical context utilization. To address these challenges, we introduce E-TTS, a modular and plug-and-play Embodied Test-Time Scaling framework that unifies reasoning and action scaling for robotic manipulation via history-aware iterative refinement with vision-language verifiers. To support joint reasoning-action scaling, E-TTS performs reasoning-action joint sampling and scoring in a pairwise manner. To better utilize historical information, E-TTS uses a history buffer to store historical context, which is then used by reasoning and action verifiers to evaluate the sampled candidates. Unlike conventional open-loop TTS methods, E-TTS introduces feedback generation into the sampling process to form a closed-loop iterative refinement mechanism, enhancing both inference efficiency and environmental adaptability. Each component functions as an independent and composable module, allowing flexible and adaptive configuration depending on task requirements. To evaluate the advantages of our framework, we conduct experiments across 4 different benchmarks, 6 environments, 3 embodiments, and 4 base vision-language-action models. The experimental results demonstrate that, without requiring additional expert data collection or retraining, E-TTS consistently improves performance, achieving up to a 33.14% increase in simulation and 26.62% in real-world scenarios.
GeoAI-Enhanced Community Detection on Spatial Networks with Graph Deep LearningYunlei Liang, Jiawei Zhu, Wen Ye et al.
Spatial networks are useful for modeling geographic phenomena where spatial interaction plays an important role. To analyze the spatial networks and their internal structures, graph-based methods such as community detection have been widely used. Community detection aims to extract strongly connected components from the network and reveal the hidden relationships between nodes, but they usually do not involve the attribute information. To consider edge-based interactions and node attributes together, this study proposed a family of GeoAI-enhanced unsupervised community detection methods called region2vec based on Graph Attention Networks (GAT) and Graph Convolutional Networks (GCN). The region2vec methods generate node neural embeddings based on attribute similarity, geographic adjacency and spatial interactions, and then extract network communities based on node embeddings using agglomerative clustering. The proposed GeoAI-based methods are compared with multiple baselines and perform the best when one wants to maximize node attribute similarity and spatial interaction intensity simultaneously within the spatial network communities. It is further applied in the shortage area delineation problem in public health and demonstrates its promise in regionalization problems.