Hyeri Kim

Young-Jae Park, Minseok Seo, Doyi Kim et al.

In the face of escalating climate changes, typhoon intensities and their ensuing damage have surged. Accurate trajectory prediction is crucial for effective damage control. Traditional physics-based models, while comprehensive, are computationally intensive and rely heavily on the expertise of forecasters. Contemporary data-driven methods often rely on reanalysis data, which can be considered to be the closest to the true representation of weather conditions. However, reanalysis data is not produced in real-time and requires time for adjustment because prediction models are calibrated with observational data. This reanalysis data, such as ERA5, falls short in challenging real-world situations. Optimal preparedness necessitates predictions at least 72 hours in advance, beyond the capabilities of standard physics models. In response to these constraints, we present an approach that harnesses real-time Unified Model (UM) data, sidestepping the limitations of reanalysis data. Our model provides predictions at 6-hour intervals for up to 72 hours in advance and outperforms both state-of-the-art data-driven methods and numerical weather prediction models. In line with our efforts to mitigate adversities inflicted by \rthree{typhoons}, we release our preprocessed \textit{PHYSICS TRACK} dataset, which includes ERA5 reanalysis data, typhoon best-track, and UM forecast data.

Jaeho Choi, Hyeri Kim, Kwang-Ho Kim et al.

Accurate precipitation forecasting is becoming increasingly important in the context of climate change. In response, machine learning-based approaches have recently gained attention as an emerging alternative to traditional methods such as numerical weather prediction and climate models. Nonetheless, many recent approaches still rely on off-the-shelf loss functions, and even the more advanced ones merely involve optimization processes based on the critical success index (CSI). The problem, however, is that CSI may become ineffective during extended dry periods when precipitation remains below the threshold, rendering it less than ideal as a criterion for optimization. To address this limitation, we introduce a simple penalty expression and reinterpret it as a quadratic unconstrained binary optimization (QUBO) formulation. Ultimately, the resulting QUBO formulation is relaxed into a differentiable advanced torrential (AT) loss function through an approximation process. The proposed AT loss demonstrates its superiority through the Lipschitz constant, forecast performance evaluations, consistency experiments, and ablation studies with the operational model.