Omer Haq

Omer Haq

Sequential prediction is challenging in regimes of delayed disambiguation, where early observations are ambiguous and multiple latent explanations remain plausible until sufficient evidence accumulates. Standard approaches based on marginal inference struggle in this setting, either collapsing uncertainty prematurely or failing to recover once informative evidence arrives. We introduce EviTrack, a test-time inference framework that operates over latent trajectories rather than marginal states. EviTrack maintains a set of competing trajectory hypotheses and applies evidence- and likelihood-ratio-based selection to delay commitment until supported by data, drawing inspiration from hypothesis management in multiple hypothesis tracking and track-before-detect. To evaluate this setting, we construct a controlled synthetic benchmark with known latent ground truth that explicitly exhibits delayed disambiguation. At matched inference budget, EviTrack substantially outperforms sampling-based baselines, achieving faster post-disambiguation recovery. These results show that, in delayed disambiguation regimes, moderate trajectory-level selection is more effective than increasing sampling coverage, highlighting selection over sampling as a key principle for reliable sequential inference.

Omer Haq

Modern probabilistic regressors often remain overconfident under distribution shift. We present Functional Distribution Networks (FDN), an input-conditioned distribution over network weights that induces predictive mixtures whose dispersion adapts to the input. FDN is trained with a beta-ELBO and Monte Carlo sampling. We further propose an evaluation protocol that cleanly separates interpolation from extrapolation and stresses OOD sanity checks (e.g., that predictive likelihood degrades under shift while in-distribution accuracy and calibration are maintained). On standard regression tasks, we benchmark against strong Bayesian, ensemble, dropout, and hypernetwork baselines under matched parameter and update budgets, and assess accuracy, calibration, and shift-awareness with standard diagnostics. Together, the framework and protocol aim to make OOD-aware, well-calibrated neural regression practical and modular.