Xiaoqing Dong

Rui Xu, Xintao Wang, Jiangjie Chen et al.

Can Large Language Models (LLMs) simulate humans in making important decisions? Recent research has unveiled the potential of using LLMs to develop role-playing language agents (RPLAs), mimicking mainly the knowledge and tones of various characters. However, imitative decision-making necessitates a more nuanced understanding of personas. In this paper, we benchmark the ability of LLMs in persona-driven decision-making. Specifically, we investigate whether LLMs can predict characters' decisions provided by the preceding stories in high-quality novels. Leveraging character analyses written by literary experts, we construct a dataset LIFECHOICE comprising 1,462 characters' decision points from 388 books. Then, we conduct comprehensive experiments on LIFECHOICE, with various LLMs and RPLA methodologies. The results demonstrate that state-of-the-art LLMs exhibit promising capabilities in this task, yet substantial room for improvement remains. Hence, we further propose the CHARMAP method, which adopts persona-based memory retrieval and significantly advances RPLAs on this task, achieving 5.03% increase in accuracy.

Naveed Ur Rehman Junejo, Muhammad Wasim Nawaz, Qingsheng Huang et al.

The ability to accurately predict and analyze student performance in online education, both at the outset and throughout the semester, is vital. Most of the published studies focus on binary classification (Fail or Pass) but there is still a significant research gap in predicting students' performance across multiple categories. This study introduces a novel neural network-based approach capable of accurately predicting student performance and identifying vulnerable students at early stages of the online courses. The Open University Learning Analytics (OULA) dataset is employed to develop and test the proposed model, which predicts outcomes in Distinction, Fail, Pass, and Withdrawn categories. The OULA dataset is preprocessed to extract features from demographic data, assessment data, and clickstream interactions within a Virtual Learning Environment (VLE). Comparative simulations indicate that the proposed model significantly outperforms existing baseline models including Artificial Neural Network Long Short Term Memory (ANN-LSTM), Random Forest (RF) 'gini', RF 'entropy' and Deep Feed Forward Neural Network (DFFNN) in terms of accuracy, precision, recall, and F1-score. The results indicate that the prediction accuracy of the proposed method is about 25% more than the existing state-of-the-art. Furthermore, compared to existing methodologies, the model demonstrates superior predictive capability across temporal course progression, achieving superior accuracy even at the initial 20% phase of course completion.

Mahammad Humayoo, Gengzhong Zheng, Xiaoqing Dong et al.

Off-policy learning exhibits greater instability when compared to on-policy learning in reinforcement learning (RL). The difference in probability distribution between the target policy ($π$) and the behavior policy (b) is a major cause of instability. High variance also originates from distributional mismatch. The variation between the target policy's distribution and the behavior policy's distribution can be reduced using importance sampling (IS). However, importance sampling has high variance, which is exacerbated in sequential scenarios. We propose a smooth form of importance sampling, specifically relative importance sampling (RIS), which mitigates variance and stabilizes learning. To control variance, we alter the value of the smoothness parameter $β\in[0, 1]$ in RIS. We develop the first model-free relative importance sampling off-policy actor-critic (RIS-off-PAC) algorithms in RL using this strategy. Our method uses a network to generate the target policy (actor) and evaluate the current policy ($π$) using a value function (critic) based on behavior policy samples. Our algorithms are trained using behavior policy action values in the reward function, not target policy ones. Both the actor and critic are trained using deep neural networks. Our methods performed better than or equal to several state-of-the-art RL benchmarks on OpenAI Gym challenges and synthetic datasets.