Xing Han

Xing Han, Ziyang Tang, Joydeep Ghosh et al.

Conformal prediction is a simple and powerful tool that can quantify uncertainty without any distributional assumptions. Many existing methods only address the average coverage guarantee, which is not ideal compared to the stronger conditional coverage guarantee. Existing methods of approximating conditional coverage require additional models or time effort, which makes them not easy to scale. In this paper, we propose a modified non-conformity score by leveraging the local approximation of the conditional distribution using kernel density estimation. The modified score inherits the spirit of split conformal methods, which is simple and efficient and can scale to high dimensional settings. We also proposed a unified framework that brings together our method and several state-of-the-art. We perform extensive empirical evaluations: results measured by both average and conditional coverage confirm the advantage of our method.

Xing Han, Tongzheng Ren, Tan Minh Nguyen et al.

Recent advances in Transformer architectures have empowered their empirical success in a variety of tasks across different domains. However, existing works mainly focus on predictive accuracy and computational cost, without considering other practical issues, such as robustness to contaminated samples. Recent work by Nguyen et al., (2022) has shown that the self-attention mechanism, which is the center of the Transformer architecture, can be viewed as a non-parametric estimator based on kernel density estimation (KDE). This motivates us to leverage a set of robust kernel density estimation methods for alleviating the issue of data contamination. Specifically, we introduce a series of self-attention mechanisms that can be incorporated into different Transformer architectures and discuss the special properties of each method. We then perform extensive empirical studies on language modeling and image classification tasks. Our methods demonstrate robust performance in multiple scenarios while maintaining competitive results on clean datasets.

Xing Han, Tongzheng Ren, Jing Hu et al.

We propose a novel approach to the problem of clustering hierarchically aggregated time-series data, which has remained an understudied problem though it has several commercial applications. We first group time series at each aggregated level, while simultaneously leveraging local and global information. The proposed method can cluster hierarchical time series (HTS) with different lengths and structures. For common two-level hierarchies, we employ a combined objective for local and global clustering over spaces of discrete probability measures, using Wasserstein distance coupled with Soft-DTW divergence. For multi-level hierarchies, we present a bottom-up procedure that progressively leverages lower-level information for higher-level clustering. Our final goal is to improve both the accuracy and speed of forecasts for a larger number of HTS needed for a real-world application. To attain this goal, each time series is first assigned the forecast for its cluster representative, which can be considered as a "shrinkage prior" for the set of time series it represents. Then this base forecast can be quickly fine-tuned to adjust to the specifics of that time series. We empirically show that our method substantially improves performance in terms of both speed and accuracy for large-scale forecasting tasks involving much HTS.

Hsing-Huan Chung, Shravan Chaudhari, Yoav Wald et al.

In real-world graph data, distribution shifts can manifest in various ways, such as the emergence of new categories and changes in the relative proportions of existing categories. It is often important to detect nodes of novel categories under such distribution shifts for safety or insight discovery purposes. We introduce a new approach, Recall-Constrained Optimization with Selective Link Prediction (RECO-SLIP), to detect nodes belonging to novel categories in attributed graphs under subpopulation shifts. By integrating a recall-constrained learning framework with a sample-efficient link prediction mechanism, RECO-SLIP addresses the dual challenges of resilience against subpopulation shifts and the effective exploitation of graph structure. Our extensive empirical evaluation across multiple graph datasets demonstrates the superior performance of RECO-SLIP over existing methods. The experimental code is available at https://github.com/hsinghuan/novel-node-category-detection.

Drew Prinster, Xing Han, Anqi Liu et al.

Responsibly deploying artificial intelligence (AI) / machine learning (ML) systems in high-stakes settings arguably requires not only proof of system reliability, but also continual, post-deployment monitoring to quickly detect and address any unsafe behavior. Methods for nonparametric sequential testing -- especially conformal test martingales (CTMs) and anytime-valid inference -- offer promising tools for this monitoring task. However, existing approaches are restricted to monitoring limited hypothesis classes or ``alarm criteria'' (e.g., detecting data shifts that violate certain exchangeability or IID assumptions), do not allow for online adaptation in response to shifts, and/or cannot diagnose the cause of degradation or alarm. In this paper, we address these limitations by proposing a weighted generalization of conformal test martingales (WCTMs), which lay a theoretical foundation for online monitoring for any unexpected changepoints in the data distribution while controlling false-alarms. For practical applications, we propose specific WCTM algorithms that adapt online to mild covariate shifts (in the marginal input distribution), quickly detect harmful shifts, and diagnose those harmful shifts as concept shifts (in the conditional label distribution) or extreme (out-of-support) covariate shifts that cannot be easily adapted to. On real-world datasets, we demonstrate improved performance relative to state-of-the-art baselines.

Hsing-Huan Chung, Shravan Chaudhari, Xing Han et al.

Dynamic graph learning is essential for applications involving temporal networks and requires effective modeling of temporal relationships. Seminal attention-based models like TGAT and DyGFormer rely on sinusoidal time encoders to capture temporal dependencies between edge events. Prior work justified sinusoidal encodings because their inner products depend on the time spans between events, which are crucial features for modeling inter-event relations. However, sinusoidal encodings inherently lose temporal information due to their many-to-one nature and therefore require high dimensions. In this paper, we rigorously study a simpler alternative: the linear time encoder, which avoids temporal information loss caused by sinusoidal functions and reduces the need for high-dimensional time encoders. We show that the self-attention mechanism can effectively learn to compute time spans between events from linear time encodings and extract relevant temporal patterns. Through extensive experiments on six dynamic graph datasets, we demonstrate that the linear time encoder improves the performance of TGAT and DyGFormer in most cases. Moreover, the linear time encoder can lead to significant savings in model parameters with minimal performance loss. For example, compared to a 100-dimensional sinusoidal time encoder, TGAT with a 2-dimensional linear time encoder saves 43% of parameters and achieves higher average precision on five datasets. While both encoders can be used simultaneously, our study highlights the often-overlooked advantages of linear time features in modern dynamic graph models. These findings can positively impact the design choices of various dynamic graph learning architectures and eventually benefit temporal network applications such as recommender systems, communication networks, and traffic forecasting.

Disha Makhija, Xing Han, Joydeep Ghosh et al.

Achieving fairness across diverse clients in Federated Learning (FL) remains a significant challenge due to the heterogeneity of the data and the inaccessibility of sensitive attributes from clients' private datasets. This study addresses this issue by introducing \texttt{EquiFL}, a novel approach designed to enhance both local and global fairness in federated learning environments. \texttt{EquiFL} incorporates a fairness term into the local optimization objective, effectively balancing local performance and fairness. The proposed coordination mechanism also prevents bias from propagating across clients during the collaboration phase. Through extensive experiments across multiple benchmarks, we demonstrate that \texttt{EquiFL} not only strikes a better balance between accuracy and fairness locally at each client but also achieves global fairness. The results also indicate that \texttt{EquiFL} ensures uniform performance distribution among clients, thus contributing to performance fairness. Furthermore, we showcase the benefits of \texttt{EquiFL} in a real-world distributed dataset from a healthcare application, specifically in predicting the effects of treatments on patients across various hospital locations.

Disha Makhija, Xing Han, Nhat Ho et al.

With growing concerns regarding data privacy and rapid increase in data volume, Federated Learning(FL) has become an important learning paradigm. However, jointly learning a deep neural network model in a FL setting proves to be a non-trivial task because of the complexities associated with the neural networks, such as varied architectures across clients, permutation invariance of the neurons, and presence of non-linear transformations in each layer. This work introduces a novel Federated Heterogeneous Neural Networks (FedHeNN) framework that allows each client to build a personalised model without enforcing a common architecture across clients. This allows each client to optimize with respect to local data and compute constraints, while still benefiting from the learnings of other (potentially more powerful) clients. The key idea of FedHeNN is to use the instance-level representations obtained from peer clients to guide the simultaneous training on each client. The extensive experimental results demonstrate that the FedHeNN framework is capable of learning better performing models on clients in both the settings of homogeneous and heterogeneous architectures across clients.

Xing Han, Jing Hu, Joydeep Ghosh

We introduce a framework to dynamically combine heterogeneous models called \texttt{DYCHEM}, which forecasts a set of time series that are related through an aggregation hierarchy. Different types of forecasting models can be employed as individual ``experts'' so that each model is tailored to the nature of the corresponding time series. \texttt{DYCHEM} learns hierarchical structures during the training stage to help generalize better across all the time series being modeled and also mitigates coherency issues that arise due to constraints imposed by the hierarchy. To improve the reliability of forecasts, we construct quantile estimations based on the point forecasts obtained from combined heterogeneous models. The resulting quantile forecasts are coherent and independent of the choice of forecasting models. We conduct a comprehensive evaluation of both point and quantile forecasts for hierarchical time series (HTS), including public data and user records from a large financial software company. In general, our method is robust, adaptive to datasets with different properties, and highly configurable and efficient for large-scale forecasting pipelines.