Yao Xie

Song Wei, Xiangrui Kong, Alinson Santos Xavier et al.

Energy justice is a growing area of interest in interdisciplinary energy research. However, identifying systematic biases in the energy sector remains challenging due to confounding variables, intricate heterogeneity in counterfactual effects, and limited data availability. First, this paper demonstrates how one can evaluate counterfactual unfairness in a power system by analyzing the average causal effect of a specific protected attribute. Subsequently, we use subgroup analysis to handle model heterogeneity and introduce a novel method for estimating counterfactual unfairness based on transfer learning, which helps to alleviate the data scarcity in each subgroup. In our numerical analysis, we apply our method to a unique large-scale customer-level power outage data set and investigate the counterfactual effect of demographic factors, such as income and age of the population, on power outage durations. Our results indicate that low-income and elderly-populated areas consistently experience longer power outages under both daily and post-disaster operations, and such discrimination is exacerbated under severe conditions. These findings suggest a widespread, systematic issue of injustice in the power service systems and emphasize the necessity for focused interventions in disadvantaged communities.

Dongze Wu, Yao Xie

Sampling from high-dimensional, multi-modal distributions remains a fundamental challenge across domains such as statistical Bayesian inference and physics-based machine learning. In this paper, we propose Annealing Flow (AF), a method built on Continuous Normalizing Flow (CNF) for sampling from high-dimensional and multi-modal distributions. AF is trained with a dynamic Optimal Transport (OT) objective incorporating Wasserstein regularization, and guided by annealing procedures, facilitating effective exploration of modes in high-dimensional spaces. Compared to recent NF methods, AF greatly improves training efficiency and stability, with minimal reliance on MC assistance. We demonstrate the superior performance of AF compared to state-of-the-art methods through experiments on various challenging distributions and real-world datasets, particularly in high-dimensional and multi-modal settings. We also highlight AF potential for sampling the least favorable distributions.

Dongze Wu, David I. Inouye, Yao Xie

Predicting potential and counterfactual outcomes from observational data is central to clinical decision-making, where physicians must weigh treatments for an individual patient rather than relying solely on average effects at the population level. We propose PO-Flow, a continuous normalizing flow (CNF) framework for causal inference that jointly models potential outcomes and counterfactuals. Trained via flow matching, PO-Flow provides a unified approach to average treatment effect estimation, individualized potential outcome prediction, and counterfactual prediction. Besides, PO-Flow directly learns the densities of potential outcomes, enabling likelihood-based evaluation of predictions. Furthermore, PO-Flow explores counterfactual outcome generation conditioned on the observed factual in general observational datasets, with a supporting recovery result under certain assumptions. PO-Flow outperforms modern baselines across diverse datasets and causal tasks in the potential outcomes framework.