Di Wu

Elise Zhang, François Mirallès, Raphaël Rousseau-Rizzi et al.

Convergent Cross Mapping (CCM) is a powerful method for detecting causality in coupled nonlinear dynamical systems, providing a model-free approach to capture dynamic causal interactions. Partial Cross Mapping (PCM) was introduced as an extension of CCM to address indirect causality in three-variable systems by comparing cross-mapping quality between direct cause-effect mapping and indirect mapping through an intermediate conditioning variable. However, PCM remains limited to univariate delay embeddings in its cross-mapping processes. In this work, we extend PCM to the multivariate setting, introducing multiPCM, which leverages multivariate embeddings to more effectively distinguish indirect causal relationships. We further propose a multivariate cross-mapping framework (MXMap) for causal discovery in dynamical systems. This two-phase framework combines (1) pairwise CCM tests to establish an initial causal graph and (2) multiPCM to refine the graph by pruning indirect causal connections. Through experiments on simulated data and the ERA5 Reanalysis weather dataset, we demonstrate the effectiveness of MXMap. Additionally, MXMap is compared against several baseline methods, showing advantages in accuracy and causal graph refinement.

Jiuqi Elise Zhang, Di Wu, Benoit Boulet

With the rapid increase in the integration of renewable energy generation and the wide adoption of various electric appliances, power grids are now faced with more and more challenges. One prominent challenge is to implement efficient anomaly detection for different types of anomalous behaviors within power grids. These anomalous behaviors might be induced by unusual consumption patterns of the users, faulty grid infrastructures, outages, external cyberattacks, or energy fraud. Identifying such anomalies is of critical importance for the reliable and efficient operation of modern power grids. Various methods have been proposed for anomaly detection on power grid time-series data. This paper presents a short survey of the recent advances in anomaly detection for power grid time-series data. Specifically, we first outline current research challenges in the power grid anomaly detection domain and further review the major anomaly detection approaches. Finally, we conclude the survey by identifying the potential directions for future research.