Hao Hu

Hao Hu, Yiqin Yang, Qianchuan Zhao et al.

Offline reinforcement learning (RL) enables effective learning from previously collected data without exploration, which shows great promise in real-world applications when exploration is expensive or even infeasible. The discount factor, $γ$, plays a vital role in improving online RL sample efficiency and estimation accuracy, but the role of the discount factor in offline RL is not well explored. This paper examines two distinct effects of $γ$ in offline RL with theoretical analysis, namely the regularization effect and the pessimism effect. On the one hand, $γ$ is a regulator to trade-off optimality with sample efficiency upon existing offline techniques. On the other hand, lower guidance $γ$ can also be seen as a way of pessimism where we optimize the policy's performance in the worst possible models. We empirically verify the above theoretical observation with tabular MDPs and standard D4RL tasks. The results show that the discount factor plays an essential role in the performance of offline RL algorithms, both under small data regimes upon existing offline methods and in large data regimes without other conservative methods.

Yiqin Yang, Hao Hu, Wenzhe Li et al.

Offline reinforcement learning (RL) enables the agent to effectively learn from logged data, which significantly extends the applicability of RL algorithms in real-world scenarios where exploration can be expensive or unsafe. Previous works have shown that extracting primitive skills from the recurring and temporally extended structures in the logged data yields better learning. However, these methods suffer greatly when the primitives have limited representation ability to recover the original policy space, especially in offline settings. In this paper, we give a quantitative characterization of the performance of offline hierarchical learning and highlight the importance of learning lossless primitives. To this end, we propose to use a \emph{flow}-based structure as the representation for low-level policies. This allows us to represent the behaviors in the dataset faithfully while keeping the expression ability to recover the whole policy space. We show that such lossless primitives can drastically improve the performance of hierarchical policies. The experimental results and extensive ablation studies on the standard D4RL benchmark show that our method has a good representation ability for policies and achieves superior performance in most tasks.

Hao Hu, Yiqin Yang, Qianchuan Zhao et al.

Self-supervised methods have become crucial for advancing deep learning by leveraging data itself to reduce the need for expensive annotations. However, the question of how to conduct self-supervised offline reinforcement learning (RL) in a principled way remains unclear. In this paper, we address this issue by investigating the theoretical benefits of utilizing reward-free data in linear Markov Decision Processes (MDPs) within a semi-supervised setting. Further, we propose a novel, Provable Data Sharing algorithm (PDS) to utilize such reward-free data for offline RL. PDS uses additional penalties on the reward function learned from labeled data to prevent overestimation, ensuring a conservative algorithm. Our results on various offline RL tasks demonstrate that PDS significantly improves the performance of offline RL algorithms with reward-free data. Overall, our work provides a promising approach to leveraging the benefits of unlabeled data in offline RL while maintaining theoretical guarantees. We believe our findings will contribute to developing more robust self-supervised RL methods.

Yiqi Sun, Zhengxin Shi, Jianshen Zhang et al. · ibm-research

In time series forecasting, decomposition-based algorithms break aggregate data into meaningful components and are therefore appreciated for their particular advantages in interpretability. Recent algorithms often combine machine learning (hereafter ML) methodology with decomposition to improve prediction accuracy. However, incorporating ML is generally considered to sacrifice interpretability inevitably. In addition, existing hybrid algorithms usually rely on theoretical models with statistical assumptions and focus only on the accuracy of aggregate predictions, and thus suffer from accuracy problems, especially in component estimates. In response to the above issues, this research explores the possibility of improving accuracy without losing interpretability in time series forecasting. We first quantitatively define interpretability for data-driven forecasts and systematically review the existing forecasting algorithms from the perspective of interpretability. Accordingly, we propose the W-R algorithm, a hybrid algorithm that combines decomposition and ML from a novel perspective. Specifically, the W-R algorithm replaces the standard additive combination function with a weighted variant and uses ML to modify the estimates of all components simultaneously. We mathematically analyze the theoretical basis of the algorithm and validate its performance through extensive numerical experiments. In general, the W-R algorithm outperforms all decomposition-based and ML benchmarks. Based on P50_QL, the algorithm relatively improves by 8.76% in accuracy on the practical sales forecasts of JD.com and 77.99% on a public dataset of electricity loads. This research offers an innovative perspective to combine the statistical and ML algorithms, and JD.com has implemented the W-R algorithm to make accurate sales predictions and guide its marketing activities.

Hao Hu, Yiqin Yang, Jianing Ye et al.

Reward-free data is abundant and contains rich prior knowledge of human behaviors, but it is not well exploited by offline reinforcement learning (RL) algorithms. In this paper, we propose UBER, an unsupervised approach to extract useful behaviors from offline reward-free datasets via diversified rewards. UBER assigns different pseudo-rewards sampled from a given prior distribution to different agents to extract a diverse set of behaviors, and reuse them as candidate policies to facilitate the learning of new tasks. Perhaps surprisingly, we show that rewards generated from random neural networks are sufficient to extract diverse and useful behaviors, some even close to expert ones. We provide both empirical and theoretical evidence to justify the use of random priors for the reward function. Experiments on multiple benchmarks showcase UBER's ability to learn effective and diverse behavior sets that enhance sample efficiency for online RL, outperforming existing baselines. By reducing reliance on human supervision, UBER broadens the applicability of RL to real-world scenarios with abundant reward-free data.