Yan‐Ming Zhang

Yanming Zhang, Akshith Kota, Eric Papenhausen et al.

Causal networks are widely used in many fields to model the complex relationships between variables. A recent approach has sought to construct causal networks by leveraging the wisdom of crowds through the collective participation of humans. While this can yield detailed causal networks that model the underlying phenomena quite well, it requires a large number of individuals with domain understanding. We adopt a different approach: leveraging the causal knowledge that large language models, such as OpenAI's GPT-4, have learned by ingesting massive amounts of literature. Within a dedicated visual analytics interface, called CausalChat, users explore single variables or variable pairs recursively to identify causal relations, latent variables, confounders, and mediators, constructing detailed causal networks through conversation. Each probing interaction is translated into a tailored GPT-4 prompt and the response is conveyed through visual representations which are linked to the generated text for explanations. We demonstrate the functionality of CausalChat across diverse data contexts and conduct user studies involving both domain experts and laypersons.

Yanming Zhang, Krishnakumar Hegde, Klaus Mueller

Causality helps people reason about and understand complex systems, particularly through what-if analyses that explore how interventions might alter outcomes. Although existing methods embrace causal reasoning using interventions and counterfactual analysis, they primarily focus on effects at the population level. These approaches often fall short in systems characterized by significant heterogeneity, where the impact of an intervention can vary widely across subgroups. To address this challenge, we present XplainAct, a visual analytics framework that supports simulating, explaining, and reasoning interventions at the individual level within subpopulations. We demonstrate the effectiveness of XplainAct through two case studies: investigating opioid-related deaths in epidemiology and analyzing voting inclinations in the presidential election.

Hang Yin, Yan-Ming Zhang, Jian Xu et al.

Air quality prediction plays a crucial role in public health and environmental protection. Accurate air quality prediction is a complex multivariate spatiotemporal problem, that involves interactions across temporal patterns, pollutant correlations, spatial station dependencies, and particularly meteorological influences that govern pollutant dispersion and chemical transformations. Existing works underestimate the critical role of atmospheric conditions in air quality prediction and neglect comprehensive meteorological data utilization, thereby impairing the modeling of dynamic interdependencies between air quality and meteorological data. To overcome this, we propose MDSTNet, an encoder-decoder framework that explicitly models air quality observations and atmospheric conditions as distinct modalities, integrating multi-pressure-level meteorological data and weather forecasts to capture atmosphere-pollution dependencies for prediction. Meantime, we construct ChinaAirNet, the first nationwide dataset combining air quality records with multi-pressure-level meteorological observations. Experimental results on ChinaAirNet demonstrate MDSTNet's superiority, substantially reducing 48-hour prediction errors by 17.54\% compared to the state-of-the-art model. The source code and dataset will be available on github.

Grace Sng, Yanming Zhang, Klaus Mueller

The increasing use of large language models (LLMs) in causal discovery as a substitute for human domain experts highlights the need for optimal model selection. This paper presents the first hallucination survey of popular LLMs for causal discovery. We show that hallucinations exist when using LLMs in causal discovery so the choice of LLM is important. We propose using Retrieval Augmented Generation (RAG) to reduce hallucinations when quality data is available. Additionally, we introduce a novel method employing multiple LLMs with an arbiter in a debate to audit edges in causal graphs, achieving a comparable reduction in hallucinations to RAG.

Yanming Zhang, Brette Fitzgibbon, Dino Garofolo et al.

Causal networks are widely used in many fields, including epidemiology, social science, medicine, and engineering, to model the complex relationships between variables. While it can be convenient to algorithmically infer these models directly from observational data, the resulting networks are often plagued with erroneous edges. Auditing and correcting these networks may require domain expertise frequently unavailable to the analyst. We propose the use of large language models such as ChatGPT as an auditor for causal networks. Our method presents ChatGPT with a causal network, one edge at a time, to produce insights about edge directionality, possible confounders, and mediating variables. We ask ChatGPT to reflect on various aspects of each causal link and we then produce visualizations that summarize these viewpoints for the human analyst to direct the edge, gather more data, or test further hypotheses. We envision a system where large language models, automated causal inference, and the human analyst and domain expert work hand in hand as a team to derive holistic and comprehensive causal models for any given case scenario. This paper presents first results obtained with an emerging prototype.

Chu Wang, Yan-Ming Zhang, Cheng-Lin Liu

Anomaly detection aims to detect abnormal events by a model of normality. It plays an important role in many domains such as network intrusion detection, criminal activity identity and so on. With the rapidly growing size of accessible training data and high computation capacities, deep learning based anomaly detection has become more and more popular. In this paper, a new domain-based anomaly detection method based on generative adversarial networks (GAN) is proposed. Minimum likelihood regularization is proposed to make the generator produce more anomalies and prevent it from converging to normal data distribution. Proper ensemble of anomaly scores is shown to improve the stability of discriminator effectively. The proposed method has achieved significant improvement than other anomaly detection methods on Cifar10 and UCI datasets.

Weiyang Liu, Yan-Ming Zhang, Xingguo Li et al.

Convolution as inner product has been the founding basis of convolutional neural networks (CNNs) and the key to end-to-end visual representation learning. Benefiting from deeper architectures, recent CNNs have demonstrated increasingly strong representation abilities. Despite such improvement, the increased depth and larger parameter space have also led to challenges in properly training a network. In light of such challenges, we propose hyperspherical convolution (SphereConv), a novel learning framework that gives angular representations on hyperspheres. We introduce SphereNet, deep hyperspherical convolution networks that are distinct from conventional inner product based convolutional networks. In particular, SphereNet adopts SphereConv as its basic convolution operator and is supervised by generalized angular softmax loss - a natural loss formulation under SphereConv. We show that SphereNet can effectively encode discriminative representation and alleviate training difficulty, leading to easier optimization, faster convergence and comparable (even better) classification accuracy over convolutional counterparts. We also provide some theoretical insights for the advantages of learning on hyperspheres. In addition, we introduce the learnable SphereConv, i.e., a natural improvement over prefixed SphereConv, and SphereNorm, i.e., hyperspherical learning as a normalization method. Experiments have verified our conclusions.

Xu-Yao Zhang, Fei Yin, Yan-Ming Zhang et al.

Recent deep learning based approaches have achieved great success on handwriting recognition. Chinese characters are among the most widely adopted writing systems in the world. Previous research has mainly focused on recognizing handwritten Chinese characters. However, recognition is only one aspect for understanding a language, another challenging and interesting task is to teach a machine to automatically write (pictographic) Chinese characters. In this paper, we propose a framework by using the recurrent neural network (RNN) as both a discriminative model for recognizing Chinese characters and a generative model for drawing (generating) Chinese characters. To recognize Chinese characters, previous methods usually adopt the convolutional neural network (CNN) models which require transforming the online handwriting trajectory into image-like representations. Instead, our RNN based approach is an end-to-end system which directly deals with the sequential structure and does not require any domain-specific knowledge. With the RNN system (combining an LSTM and GRU), state-of-the-art performance can be achieved on the ICDAR-2013 competition database. Furthermore, under the RNN framework, a conditional generative model with character embedding is proposed for automatically drawing recognizable Chinese characters. The generated characters (in vector format) are human-readable and also can be recognized by the discriminative RNN model with high accuracy. Experimental results verify the effectiveness of using RNNs as both generative and discriminative models for the tasks of drawing and recognizing Chinese characters.