Philip G. Conaghan

Zoe Hancox, Sarah R. Kingsbury, Andrew Clegg et al.

Background: Hip replacement procedures improve patient lives by relieving pain and restoring mobility. Predicting hip replacement in advance could reduce pain by enabling timely interventions, prioritising individuals for surgery or rehabilitation, and utilising physiotherapy to potentially delay the need for joint replacement. This study predicts hip replacement a year in advance to enhance quality of life and health service efficiency. Methods: Adapting previous work using Temporal Graph Convolutional Neural Network (TG-CNN) models, we construct temporal graphs from primary care medical event codes, sourced from ResearchOne EHRs of 40-75-year-old patients, to predict hip replacement risk. We match hip replacement cases to controls by age, sex, and Index of Multiple Deprivation. The model, trained on 9,187 cases and 9,187 controls, predicts hip replacement one year in advance. We validate the model on two unseen datasets, recalibrating for class imbalance. Additionally, we conduct an ablation study and compare against four baseline models. Results: Our best model predicts hip replacement risk one year in advance with an AUROC of 0.724 (95% CI: 0.715-0.733) and an AUPRC of 0.185 (95% CI: 0.160-0.209), achieving a calibration slope of 1.107 (95% CI: 1.074-1.139) after recalibration. Conclusions: The TG-CNN model effectively predicts hip replacement risk by identifying patterns in patient trajectories, potentially improving understanding and management of hip-related conditions.

Oliver Mills, Philip Conaghan, Nishant Ravikumar et al.

Menisci are cartilaginous tissue found within the knee that contribute to joint lubrication and weight dispersal. Damage to menisci can lead to onset and progression of knee osteoarthritis (OA), a condition that is a leading cause of disability, and for which there are few effective therapies. Accurate automated segmentation of menisci would allow for earlier detection and treatment of meniscal abnormalities, as well as shedding more light on the role the menisci play in OA pathogenesis. Focus in this area has mainly used variants of convolutional networks, but there has been no attempt to utilise recent large vision transformer segmentation models. The Segment Anything Model (SAM) is a so-called foundation segmentation model, which has been found useful across a range of different tasks due to the large volume of data used for training the model. In this study, SAM was adapted to perform fully-automated segmentation of menisci from 3D knee magnetic resonance images. A 3D U-Net was also trained as a baseline. It was found that, when fine-tuning only the decoder, SAM was unable to compete with 3D U-Net, achieving a Dice score of $0.81\pm0.03$, compared to $0.87\pm0.03$, on a held-out test set. When fine-tuning SAM end-to-end, a Dice score of $0.87\pm0.03$ was achieved. The performance of both the end-to-end trained SAM configuration and the 3D U-Net were comparable to the winning Dice score ($0.88\pm0.03$) in the IWOAI Knee MRI Segmentation Challenge 2019. Performance in terms of the Hausdorff Distance showed that both configurations of SAM were inferior to 3D U-Net in matching the meniscus morphology. Results demonstrated that, despite its generalisability, SAM was unable to outperform a basic 3D U-Net in meniscus segmentation, and may not be suitable for similar 3D medical image segmentation tasks also involving fine anatomical structures with low contrast and poorly-defined boundaries.