Yuanyuan Huang

Xudong Ling, Chaorong Li, Fengqing Qin et al.

Diffusion models are widely used in image generation because they can generate high-quality and realistic samples. This is in contrast to generative adversarial networks (GANs) and variational autoencoders (VAEs), which have some limitations in terms of image quality.We introduce the diffusion model to the precipitation forecasting task and propose a short-term precipitation nowcasting with condition diffusion model based on historical observational data, which is referred to as SRNDiff. By incorporating an additional conditional decoder module in the denoising process, SRNDiff achieves end-to-end conditional rainfall prediction. SRNDiff is composed of two networks: a denoising network and a conditional Encoder network. The conditional network is composed of multiple independent UNet networks. These networks extract conditional feature maps at different resolutions, providing accurate conditional information that guides the diffusion model for conditional generation.SRNDiff surpasses GANs in terms of prediction accuracy, although it requires more computational resources.The SRNDiff model exhibits higher stability and efficiency during training than GANs-based approaches, and generates high-quality precipitation distribution samples that better reflect future actual precipitation conditions. This fully validates the advantages and potential of diffusion models in precipitation forecasting, providing new insights for enhancing rainfall prediction.

Li Chaorong, Ling Xudong, Yang Qiang et al.

Deep learning models have achieved remarkable progress in precipitation prediction. However, they still face significant challenges in accurately capturing spatial details of radar images, particularly in regions of high precipitation intensity. This limitation results in reduced spatial localization accuracy when predicting radar echo images across varying precipitation intensities. To address this challenge, we propose an innovative precipitation prediction approach termed the Multi-Task Latent Diffusion Model (MTLDM). The core idea of MTLDM lies in the recognition that precipitation radar images represent a combination of multiple components, each corresponding to different precipitation intensities. Thus, we adopt a divide-and-conquer strategy, decomposing radar images into several sub-images based on their precipitation intensities and individually modeling these components. During the prediction stage, MTLDM integrates these sub-image representations by utilizing a trained latent-space rainfall diffusion model, followed by decoding through a multi-task decoder to produce the final precipitation prediction. Experimental evaluations conducted on the MRMS dataset demonstrate that the proposed MTLDM method surpasses state-of-the-art techniques, achieving a Critical Success Index (CSI) improvement of 13-26%.