Jia Li

Jiawen Zhang, Zhenwei Zhang, Shun Zheng et al.

Time Series Foundation Models (TSFMs), which are pretrained on large-scale, cross-domain data and capable of zero-shot forecasting in new scenarios without further training, are increasingly adopted in real-world applications. However, as the zero-shot forecasting paradigm gets popular, a critical yet overlooked question emerges: Are TSFMs robust to adversarial input perturbations? Such perturbations could be exploited in man-in-the-middle attacks or data poisoning. To address this gap, we conduct a systematic investigation into the adversarial robustness of TSFMs. Our results show that even minimal perturbations can induce significant and controllable changes in forecast behaviors, including trend reversal, temporal drift, and amplitude shift, posing serious risks to TSFM-based services. Through experiments on representative TSFMs and multiple datasets, we reveal their consistent vulnerabilities and identify potential architectural designs, such as structural sparsity and multi-task pretraining, that may improve robustness. Our findings offer actionable guidance for designing more resilient forecasting systems and provide a critical assessment of the adversarial robustness of TSFMs.

Shuyuan Xu, Juntao Tan, Shelby Heinecke et al.

Recommender systems may be confounded by various types of confounding factors (also called confounders) that may lead to inaccurate recommendations and sacrificed recommendation performance. Current approaches to solving the problem usually design each specific model for each specific confounder. However, real-world systems may include a huge number of confounders and thus designing each specific model for each specific confounder could be unrealistic. More importantly, except for those ``explicit confounders'' that experts can manually identify and process such as item's position in the ranking list, there are also many ``latent confounders'' that are beyond the imagination of experts. For example, users' rating on a song may depend on their current mood or the current weather, and users' preference on ice creams may depend on the air temperature. Such latent confounders may be unobservable in the recorded training data. To solve the problem, we propose Deconfounded Causal Collaborative Filtering (DCCF). We first frame user behaviors with unobserved confounders into a causal graph, and then we design a front-door adjustment model carefully fused with machine learning to deconfound the influence of unobserved confounders. Experiments on real-world datasets show that our method is able to deconfound unobserved confounders to achieve better recommendation performance.