When LLM Meets Time Series: Can LLMs Perform Multi-Step Time Series Reasoning and InferenceWen Ye, Jinbo Liu, Defu Cao et al.
The rapid advancement of Large Language Models (LLMs) has sparked growing interest in their application to time series analysis tasks. However, their ability to perform complex reasoning over temporal data in real-world application domains remains underexplored. To move toward this goal, a first step is to establish a rigorous benchmark dataset for evaluation. In this work, we introduce the TSAIA Benchmark, a first attempt to evaluate LLMs as time-series AI assistants. To ensure both scientific rigor and practical relevance, we surveyed over 20 academic publications and identified 33 real-world task formulations. The benchmark encompasses a broad spectrum of challenges, ranging from constraint-aware forecasting to anomaly detection with threshold calibration: tasks that require compositional reasoning and multi-step time series analysis. The question generator is designed to be dynamic and extensible, supporting continuous expansion as new datasets or task types are introduced. Given the heterogeneous nature of the tasks, we adopt task-specific success criteria and tailored inference-quality metrics to ensure meaningful evaluation for each task. We apply this benchmark to assess eight state-of-the-art LLMs under a unified evaluation protocol. Our analysis reveals limitations in current models' ability to assemble complex time series analysis workflows, underscoring the need for specialized methodologies for domain-specific adaptation. Our benchmark is available at https://huggingface.co/datasets/Melady/TSAIA, and the code is available at https://github.com/USC-Melady/TSAIA.
Future-conditioned Unsupervised Pretraining for Decision TransformerZhihui Xie, Zichuan Lin, Deheng Ye et al.
Recent research in offline reinforcement learning (RL) has demonstrated that return-conditioned supervised learning is a powerful paradigm for decision-making problems. While promising, return conditioning is limited to training data labeled with rewards and therefore faces challenges in learning from unsupervised data. In this work, we aim to utilize generalized future conditioning to enable efficient unsupervised pretraining from reward-free and sub-optimal offline data. We propose Pretrained Decision Transformer (PDT), a conceptually simple approach for unsupervised RL pretraining. PDT leverages future trajectory information as a privileged context to predict actions during training. The ability to make decisions based on both present and future factors enhances PDT's capability for generalization. Besides, this feature can be easily incorporated into a return-conditioned framework for online finetuning, by assigning return values to possible futures and sampling future embeddings based on their respective values. Empirically, PDT outperforms or performs on par with its supervised pretraining counterpart, especially when dealing with sub-optimal data. Further analysis reveals that PDT can extract diverse behaviors from offline data and controllably sample high-return behaviors by online finetuning. Code is available at here.
7.3CRMar 10, 2024
Attacking Transformers with Feature Diversity Adversarial PerturbationChenxing Gao, Hang Zhou, Junqing Yu et al.
Understanding the mechanisms behind Vision Transformer (ViT), particularly its vulnerability to adversarial perturba tions, is crucial for addressing challenges in its real-world applications. Existing ViT adversarial attackers rely on la bels to calculate the gradient for perturbation, and exhibit low transferability to other structures and tasks. In this paper, we present a label-free white-box attack approach for ViT-based models that exhibits strong transferability to various black box models, including most ViT variants, CNNs, and MLPs, even for models developed for other modalities. Our inspira tion comes from the feature collapse phenomenon in ViTs, where the critical attention mechanism overly depends on the low-frequency component of features, causing the features in middle-to-end layers to become increasingly similar and eventually collapse. We propose the feature diversity attacker to naturally accelerate this process and achieve remarkable performance and transferability.
7.5LGOct 27, 2021
Learning Diverse Policies in MOBA Games via Macro-GoalsYiming Gao, Bei Shi, Xueying Du et al.
Recently, many researchers have made successful progress in building the AI systems for MOBA-game-playing with deep reinforcement learning, such as on Dota 2 and Honor of Kings. Even though these AI systems have achieved or even exceeded human-level performance, they still suffer from the lack of policy diversity. In this paper, we propose a novel Macro-Goals Guided framework, called MGG, to learn diverse policies in MOBA games. MGG abstracts strategies as macro-goals from human demonstrations and trains a Meta-Controller to predict these macro-goals. To enhance policy diversity, MGG samples macro-goals from the Meta-Controller prediction and guides the training process towards these goals. Experimental results on the typical MOBA game Honor of Kings demonstrate that MGG can execute diverse policies in different matches and lineups, and also outperform the state-of-the-art methods over 102 heroes.
6.5LGJun 19, 2021
Boosting Offline Reinforcement Learning with Residual Generative ModelingHua Wei, Deheng Ye, Zhao Liu et al.
Offline reinforcement learning (RL) tries to learn the near-optimal policy with recorded offline experience without online exploration. Current offline RL research includes: 1) generative modeling, i.e., approximating a policy using fixed data; and 2) learning the state-action value function. While most research focuses on the state-action function part through reducing the bootstrapping error in value function approximation induced by the distribution shift of training data, the effects of error propagation in generative modeling have been neglected. In this paper, we analyze the error in generative modeling. We propose AQL (action-conditioned Q-learning), a residual generative model to reduce policy approximation error for offline RL. We show that our method can learn more accurate policy approximations in different benchmark datasets. In addition, we show that the proposed offline RL method can learn more competitive AI agents in complex control tasks under the multiplayer online battle arena (MOBA) game Honor of Kings.
MapGo: Model-Assisted Policy Optimization for Goal-Oriented TasksMenghui Zhu, Minghuan Liu, Jian Shen et al.
In Goal-oriented Reinforcement learning, relabeling the raw goals in past experience to provide agents with hindsight ability is a major solution to the reward sparsity problem. In this paper, to enhance the diversity of relabeled goals, we develop FGI (Foresight Goal Inference), a new relabeling strategy that relabels the goals by looking into the future with a learned dynamics model. Besides, to improve sample efficiency, we propose to use the dynamics model to generate simulated trajectories for policy training. By integrating these two improvements, we introduce the MapGo framework (Model-Assisted Policy Optimization for Goal-oriented tasks). In our experiments, we first show the effectiveness of the FGI strategy compared with the hindsight one, and then show that the MapGo framework achieves higher sample efficiency when compared to model-free baselines on a set of complicated tasks.
9.5AIDec 18, 2020
Which Heroes to Pick? Learning to Draft in MOBA Games with Neural Networks and Tree SearchSheng Chen, Menghui Zhu, Deheng Ye et al.
Hero drafting is essential in MOBA game playing as it builds the team of each side and directly affects the match outcome. State-of-the-art drafting methods fail to consider: 1) drafting efficiency when the hero pool is expanded; 2) the multi-round nature of a MOBA 5v5 match series, i.e., two teams play best-of-N and the same hero is only allowed to be drafted once throughout the series. In this paper, we formulate the drafting process as a multi-round combinatorial game and propose a novel drafting algorithm based on neural networks and Monte-Carlo tree search, named JueWuDraft. Specifically, we design a long-term value estimation mechanism to handle the best-of-N drafting case. Taking Honor of Kings, one of the most popular MOBA games at present, as a running case, we demonstrate the practicality and effectiveness of JueWuDraft when compared to state-of-the-art drafting methods.
29.7AINov 25, 2020
Towards Playing Full MOBA Games with Deep Reinforcement LearningDeheng Ye, Guibin Chen, Wen Zhang et al.
MOBA games, e.g., Honor of Kings, League of Legends, and Dota 2, pose grand challenges to AI systems such as multi-agent, enormous state-action space, complex action control, etc. Developing AI for playing MOBA games has raised much attention accordingly. However, existing work falls short in handling the raw game complexity caused by the explosion of agent combinations, i.e., lineups, when expanding the hero pool in case that OpenAI's Dota AI limits the play to a pool of only 17 heroes. As a result, full MOBA games without restrictions are far from being mastered by any existing AI system. In this paper, we propose a MOBA AI learning paradigm that methodologically enables playing full MOBA games with deep reinforcement learning. Specifically, we develop a combination of novel and existing learning techniques, including curriculum self-play learning, policy distillation, off-policy adaption, multi-head value estimation, and Monte-Carlo tree-search, in training and playing a large pool of heroes, meanwhile addressing the scalability issue skillfully. Tested on Honor of Kings, a popular MOBA game, we show how to build superhuman AI agents that can defeat top esports players. The superiority of our AI is demonstrated by the first large-scale performance test of MOBA AI agent in the literature.
15.8AINov 25, 2020
Supervised Learning Achieves Human-Level Performance in MOBA Games: A Case Study of Honor of KingsDeheng Ye, Guibin Chen, Peilin Zhao et al.
We present JueWu-SL, the first supervised-learning-based artificial intelligence (AI) program that achieves human-level performance in playing multiplayer online battle arena (MOBA) games. Unlike prior attempts, we integrate the macro-strategy and the micromanagement of MOBA-game-playing into neural networks in a supervised and end-to-end manner. Tested on Honor of Kings, the most popular MOBA at present, our AI performs competitively at the level of High King players in standard 5v5 games.
36.5AIDec 20, 2019
Mastering Complex Control in MOBA Games with Deep Reinforcement LearningDeheng Ye, Zhao Liu, Mingfei Sun et al.
We study the reinforcement learning problem of complex action control in the Multi-player Online Battle Arena (MOBA) 1v1 games. This problem involves far more complicated state and action spaces than those of traditional 1v1 games, such as Go and Atari series, which makes it very difficult to search any policies with human-level performance. In this paper, we present a deep reinforcement learning framework to tackle this problem from the perspectives of both system and algorithm. Our system is of low coupling and high scalability, which enables efficient explorations at large scale. Our algorithm includes several novel strategies, including control dependency decoupling, action mask, target attention, and dual-clip PPO, with which our proposed actor-critic network can be effectively trained in our system. Tested on the MOBA game Honor of Kings, our AI agent, called Tencent Solo, can defeat top professional human players in full 1v1 games.
14.2MADec 19, 2018
Hierarchical Macro Strategy Model for MOBA Game AIBin Wu, Qiang Fu, Jing Liang et al.
The next challenge of game AI lies in Real Time Strategy (RTS) games. RTS games provide partially observable gaming environments, where agents interact with one another in an action space much larger than that of GO. Mastering RTS games requires both strong macro strategies and delicate micro level execution. Recently, great progress has been made in micro level execution, while complete solutions for macro strategies are still lacking. In this paper, we propose a novel learning-based Hierarchical Macro Strategy model for mastering MOBA games, a sub-genre of RTS games. Trained by the Hierarchical Macro Strategy model, agents explicitly make macro strategy decisions and further guide their micro level execution. Moreover, each of the agents makes independent strategy decisions, while simultaneously communicating with the allies through leveraging a novel imitated cross-agent communication mechanism. We perform comprehensive evaluations on a popular 5v5 Multiplayer Online Battle Arena (MOBA) game. Our 5-AI team achieves a 48% winning rate against human player teams which are ranked top 1% in the player ranking system.
9.1LGAug 31, 2018
MULDEF: Multi-model-based Defense Against Adversarial Examples for Neural NetworksSiwakorn Srisakaokul, Yuhao Zhang, Zexuan Zhong et al.
Despite being popularly used in many applications, neural network models have been found to be vulnerable to adversarial examples, i.e., carefully crafted examples aiming to mislead machine learning models. Adversarial examples can pose potential risks on safety and security critical applications. However, existing defense approaches are still vulnerable to attacks, especially in a white-box attack scenario. To address this issue, we propose a new defense approach, named MulDef, based on robustness diversity. Our approach consists of (1) a general defense framework based on multiple models and (2) a technique for generating these multiple models to achieve high defense capability. In particular, given a target model, our framework includes multiple models (constructed from the target model) to form a model family. The model family is designed to achieve robustness diversity (i.e., an adversarial example successfully attacking one model cannot succeed in attacking other models in the family). At runtime, a model is randomly selected from the family to be applied on each input example. Our general framework can inspire rich future research to construct a desirable model family achieving higher robustness diversity. Our evaluation results show that MulDef (with only up to 5 models in the family) can substantially improve the target model's accuracy on adversarial examples by 22-74% in a white-box attack scenario, while maintaining similar accuracy on legitimate examples.
1.9CLJul 6, 2018
Testing Untestable Neural Machine Translation: An Industrial CaseWujie Zheng, Wenyu Wang, Dian Liu et al.
Neural Machine Translation (NMT) has been widely adopted recently due to its advantages compared with the traditional Statistical Machine Translation (SMT). However, an NMT system still often produces translation failures due to the complexity of natural language and sophistication in designing neural networks. While in-house black-box system testing based on reference translations (i.e., examples of valid translations) has been a common practice for NMT quality assurance, an increasingly critical industrial practice, named in-vivo testing, exposes unseen types or instances of translation failures when real users are using a deployed industrial NMT system. To fill the gap of lacking test oracle for in-vivo testing of an NMT system, in this paper, we propose a new approach for automatically identifying translation failures, without requiring reference translations for a translation task; our approach can directly serve as a test oracle for in-vivo testing. Our approach focuses on properties of natural language translation that can be checked systematically and uses information from both the test inputs (i.e., the texts to be translated) and the test outputs (i.e., the translations under inspection) of the NMT system. Our evaluation conducted on real-world datasets shows that our approach can effectively detect targeted property violations as translation failures. Our experiences on deploying our approach in both production and development environments of WeChat (a messenger app with over one billion monthly active users) demonstrate high effectiveness of our approach along with high industry impact.