Richard Li

Andy Zou, Tristan Xiao, Ryan Jia et al. · berkeley, cmu

Forecasting future world events is a challenging but valuable task. Forecasts of climate, geopolitical conflict, pandemics and economic indicators help shape policy and decision making. In these domains, the judgment of expert humans contributes to the best forecasts. Given advances in language modeling, can these forecasts be automated? To this end, we introduce Autocast, a dataset containing thousands of forecasting questions and an accompanying news corpus. Questions are taken from forecasting tournaments, ensuring high quality, real-world importance, and diversity. The news corpus is organized by date, allowing us to precisely simulate the conditions under which humans made past forecasts (avoiding leakage from the future). Motivated by the difficulty of forecasting numbers across orders of magnitude (e.g. global cases of COVID-19 in 2022), we also curate IntervalQA, a dataset of numerical questions and metrics for calibration. We test language models on our forecasting task and find that performance is far below a human expert baseline. However, performance improves with increased model size and incorporation of relevant information from the news corpus. In sum, Autocast poses a novel challenge for large language models and improved performance could bring large practical benefits.

Richard Li, Allan Jabri, Trevor Darrell et al.

Learning robotic manipulation tasks using reinforcement learning with sparse rewards is currently impractical due to the outrageous data requirements. Many practical tasks require manipulation of multiple objects, and the complexity of such tasks increases with the number of objects. Learning from a curriculum of increasingly complex tasks appears to be a natural solution, but unfortunately, does not work for many scenarios. We hypothesize that the inability of the state-of-the-art algorithms to effectively utilize a task curriculum stems from the absence of inductive biases for transferring knowledge from simpler to complex tasks. We show that graph-based relational architectures overcome this limitation and enable learning of complex tasks when provided with a simple curriculum of tasks with increasing numbers of objects. We demonstrate the utility of our framework on a simulated block stacking task. Starting from scratch, our agent learns to stack six blocks into a tower. Despite using step-wise sparse rewards, our method is orders of magnitude more data-efficient and outperforms the existing state-of-the-art method that utilizes human demonstrations. Furthermore, the learned policy exhibits zero-shot generalization, successfully stacking blocks into taller towers and previously unseen configurations such as pyramids, without any further training.