Matthew J. Vowels

Matthew J. Vowels

Causal inference is a crucial goal of science, enabling researchers to arrive at meaningful conclusions regarding the predictions of hypothetical interventions using observational data. Path models, Structural Equation Models (SEMs), and, more generally, Directed Acyclic Graphs (DAGs), provide a means to unambiguously specify assumptions regarding the causal structure underlying a phenomenon. Unlike DAGs, which make very few assumptions about the functional and parametric form, SEM assumes linearity. This can result in functional misspecification which prevents researchers from undertaking reliable effect size estimation. In contrast, we propose Super Learner Equation Modeling, a path modeling technique integrating machine learning Super Learner ensembles. We empirically demonstrate its ability to provide consistent and unbiased estimates of causal effects, its competitive performance for linear models when compared with SEM, and highlight its superiority over SEM when dealing with non-linear relationships. We provide open-source code, and a tutorial notebook with example usage, accentuating the easy-to-use nature of the method.

Guillaume Rochette, Mathieu Rochat, Matthew J. Vowels

psifx is a plug-and-play multi-modal feature extraction toolkit, aiming to facilitate and democratize the use of state-of-the-art machine learning techniques for human sciences research. It is motivated by a need (a) to automate and standardize data annotation processes that typically require expensive, lengthy, and inconsistent human labour; (b) to develop and distribute open-source community-driven psychology research software; and (c) to enable large-scale access and ease of use for non-expert users. The framework contains an array of tools for tasks such as speaker diarization, closed-caption transcription and translation from audio; body, hand, and facial pose estimation and gaze tracking with multi-person tracking from video; and interactive textual feature extraction supported by large language models. The package has been designed with a modular and task-oriented approach, enabling the community to add or update new tools easily. This combination creates new opportunities for in-depth study of real-time behavioral phenomena in psychological and social science research.

Sina Akbari, Fateme Jamshidi, Ehsan Mokhtarian et al.

Causal identification is at the core of the causal inference literature, where complete algorithms have been proposed to identify causal queries of interest. The validity of these algorithms hinges on the restrictive assumption of having access to a correctly specified causal structure. In this work, we study the setting where a probabilistic model of the causal structure is available. Specifically, the edges in a causal graph exist with uncertainties which may, for example, represent degree of belief from domain experts. Alternatively, the uncertainty about an edge may reflect the confidence of a particular statistical test. The question that naturally arises in this setting is: Given such a probabilistic graph and a specific causal effect of interest, what is the subgraph which has the highest plausibility and for which the causal effect is identifiable? We show that answering this question reduces to solving an NP-complete combinatorial optimization problem which we call the edge ID problem. We propose efficient algorithms to approximate this problem and evaluate them against both real-world networks and randomly generated graphs.

Oliver Cory, Ozge Mercanoglu Sincan, Matthew Vowels et al.

Sign Language Assessment (SLA) tools are useful to aid in language learning and are underdeveloped. Previous work has focused on isolated signs or comparison against a single reference video to assess Sign Languages (SL). This paper introduces a novel SLA tool designed to evaluate the comprehensibility of SL by modelling the natural distribution of human motion. We train our pipeline on data from native signers and evaluate it using SL learners. We compare our results to ratings from a human raters study and find strong correlation between human ratings and our tool. We visually demonstrate our tools ability to detect anomalous results spatio-temporally, providing actionable feedback to aid in SL learning and assessment.

Bucher Sahyouni, Matthew Vowels, Liqun Chen et al.

To tackle cold-start and data sparsity issues in recommender systems, numerous multimodal, sequential, and contrastive techniques have been proposed. While these augmentations can boost recommendation performance, they tend to add noise and disrupt useful semantics. To address this, we propose MuSICRec (Multimodal Sequence-Item Contrastive Recommender), a multi-view graph-based recommender that combines collaborative, sequential, and multimodal signals. We build a sequence-item (SI) view by attention pooling over the user's interacted items to form sequence nodes. We propagate over the SI graph, obtaining a second view organically as an alternative to artificial data augmentation, while simultaneously injecting sequential context signals. Additionally, to mitigate modality noise and align the multimodal information, the contribution of text and visual features is modulated according to an ID-guided gate. We evaluate under a strict leave-two-out split against a broad range of sequential, multimodal, and contrastive baselines. On the Amazon Baby, Sports, and Electronics datasets, MuSICRec outperforms state-of-the-art baselines across all model types. We observe the largest gains for short-history users, mitigating sparsity and cold-start challenges. Our code is available at https://anonymous.4open.science/r/MuSICRec-3CEE/ and will be made publicly available.

Bucher Sahyouni, Matthew Vowels, Liqun Chen et al.

We propose a novel recommender framework, MuSTRec (Multimodal and Sequential Transformer-based Recommendation), that unifies multimodal and sequential recommendation paradigms. MuSTRec captures cross-item similarities and collaborative filtering signals, by building item-item graphs from extracted text and visual features. A frequency-based self-attention module additionally captures the short- and long-term user preferences. Across multiple Amazon datasets, MuSTRec demonstrates superior performance (up to 33.5% improvement) over multimodal and sequential state-of-the-art baselines. Finally, we detail some interesting facets of this new recommendation paradigm. These include the need for a new data partitioning regime, and a demonstration of how integrating user embeddings into sequential recommendation leads to drastically increased short-term metrics (up to 200% improvement) on smaller datasets. Our code is availabe at https://anonymous.4open.science/r/MuSTRec-D32B/ and will be made publicly available.

Bucher Sahyouni, Matthew Vowels, Liqun Chen et al.

Softmax Loss (SL) is being increasingly adopted for recommender systems (RS) as it has demonstrated better performance, robustness and fairness. Yet in implicit-feedback, a single global temperature and equal treatment of uniformly sampled negatives can lead to brittle training, because sampled sets may contain varying degrees of relevant or informative competitors. The optimal loss sharpness for a user-item pair with a particular set of negatives, can be suboptimal or destabilising for another with different negatives. We introduce Dual-scale Softmax Loss (DSL), which infers effective sharpness from the sampled competition itself. DSL adds two complementary branches to the log-sum-exp backbone. Firstly it reweights negatives within each training instance using hardness and item--item similarity, secondly it adapts a per-example temperature from the competition intensity over a constructed competitor slate. Together, these components preserve the geometry of SL while reshaping the competition distribution across negatives and across examples. Over several representative benchmarks and backbones, DSL yields substantial gains over strong baselines, with improvements over SL exceeding $10%$ in several settings and averaging $6.22%$ across datasets, metrics, and backbones. Under out-of-distribution (OOD) popularity shift, the gains are larger, with an average of $9.31%$ improvement over SL. We further provide a theoretical, distributionally robust optimisation (DRO) analysis, which demonstrates how DSL reshapes the robust payoff and the KL deviation for ambiguous instances. This helps explain the empirically observed improvements in accuracy and robustness.

Bucher Sahyouni, Matthew Vowels, Liqun Chen et al.

The development of fair and unbiased machine learning models remains an ongoing objective for researchers in the field of artificial intelligence. We introduce the Differential Adjusted Parity (DAP) loss to produce unbiased informative representations. It utilises a differentiable variant of the adjusted parity metric to create a unified objective function. By combining downstream task classification accuracy and its inconsistency across sensitive feature domains, it provides a single tool to increase performance and mitigate bias. A key element in this approach is the use of soft balanced accuracies. In contrast to previous non-adversarial approaches, DAP does not suffer a degeneracy where the metric is satisfied by performing equally poorly across all sensitive domains. It outperforms several adversarial models on downstream task accuracy and fairness in our analysis. Specifically, it improves the demographic parity, equalized odds and sensitive feature accuracy by as much as 22.5\%, 44.1\% and 40.1\%, respectively, when compared to the best performing adversarial approaches on these metrics. Overall, the DAP loss and its associated metric can play a significant role in creating more fair machine learning models.

Matthew J. Vowels, Mathieu Rochat, Sina Akbari

Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs), including fully-connected networks and transformers, are highly flexible and powerful function approximators, widely applied in fields like computer vision and natural language processing. However, their inability to inherently respect causal structures can limit their robustness, making them vulnerable to covariate shift and difficult to interpret/explain. This poses significant challenges for their reliability in real-world applications. In this paper, we introduce Causal Fully-Connected Neural Networks (CFCNs) and Causal Transformers (CaTs), two general model families designed to operate under predefined causal constraints, as specified by a Directed Acyclic Graph (DAG). These models retain the powerful function approximation abilities of traditional neural networks while adhering to the underlying structural constraints, improving robustness, reliability, and interpretability at inference time. This approach opens new avenues for deploying neural networks in more demanding, real-world scenarios where robustness and explainability is critical.

Matthew J. Vowels

Machine Learning explainability techniques have been proposed as a means of `explaining' or interrogating a model in order to understand why a particular decision or prediction has been made. Such an ability is especially important at a time when machine learning is being used to automate decision processes which concern sensitive factors and legal outcomes. Indeed, it is even a requirement according to EU law. Furthermore, researchers concerned with imposing overly restrictive functional form (e.g., as would be the case in a linear regression) may be motivated to use machine learning algorithms in conjunction with explainability techniques, as part of exploratory research, with the goal of identifying important variables which are associated with an outcome of interest. For example, epidemiologists might be interested in identifying `risk factors' - i.e. factors which affect recovery from disease - by using random forests and assessing variable relevance using importance measures. However, and as we demonstrate, machine learning algorithms are not as flexible as they might seem, and are instead incredibly sensitive to the underling causal structure in the data. The consequences of this are that predictors which are, in fact, critical to a causal system and highly correlated with the outcome, may nonetheless be deemed by explainability techniques to be unrelated/unimportant/unpredictive of the outcome. Rather than this being a limitation of explainability techniques per se, we show that it is rather a consequence of the mathematical implications of regression, and the interaction of these implications with the associated conditional independencies of the underlying causal structure. We provide some alternative recommendations for researchers wanting to explore the data for important variables.

Matthew J. Vowels, Sina Akbari, Necati Cihan Camgoz et al.

Parameter estimation in empirical fields is usually undertaken using parametric models, and such models readily facilitate statistical inference. Unfortunately, they are unlikely to be sufficiently flexible to be able to adequately model real-world phenomena, and may yield biased estimates. Conversely, non-parametric approaches are flexible but do not readily facilitate statistical inference and may still exhibit residual bias. We explore the potential for Influence Functions (IFs) to (a) improve initial estimators without needing more data (b) increase model robustness and (c) facilitate statistical inference. We begin with a broad introduction to IFs, and propose a neural network method 'MultiNet', which seeks the diversity of an ensemble using a single architecture. We also introduce variants on the IF update step which we call 'MultiStep', and provide a comprehensive evaluation of different approaches. The improvements are found to be dataset dependent, indicating an interaction between the methods used and nature of the data generating process. Our experiments highlight the need for practitioners to check the consistency of their findings, potentially by undertaking multiple analyses with different combinations of estimators. We also show that it is possible to improve existing neural networks for `free', without needing more data, and without needing to retrain them.

Oscar Mendez, Matthew Vowels, Richard Bowden

Attention is an important component of modern deep learning. However, less emphasis has been put on its inverse: ignoring distraction. Our daily lives require us to explicitly avoid giving attention to salient visual features that confound the task we are trying to accomplish. This visual prioritisation allows us to concentrate on important tasks while ignoring visual distractors. In this work, we introduce Neural Blindness, which gives an agent the ability to completely ignore objects or classes that are deemed distractors. More explicitly, we aim to render a neural network completely incapable of representing specific chosen classes in its latent space. In a very real sense, this makes the network "blind" to certain classes, allowing and agent to focus on what is important for a given task, and demonstrates how this can be used to improve localisation.

Jacopo Biggiogera, George Boateng, Peter Hilpert et al.

Many processes in psychology are complex, such as dyadic interactions between two interacting partners (e.g. patient-therapist, intimate relationship partners). Nevertheless, many basic questions about interactions are difficult to investigate because dyadic processes can be within a person and between partners, they are based on multimodal aspects of behavior and unfold rapidly. Current analyses are mainly based on the behavioral coding method, whereby human coders annotate behavior based on a coding schema. But coding is labor-intensive, expensive, slow, focuses on few modalities. Current approaches in psychology use LIWC for analyzing couples' interactions. However, advances in natural language processing such as BERT could enable the development of systems to potentially automate behavioral coding, which in turn could substantially improve psychological research. In this work, we train machine learning models to automatically predict positive and negative communication behavioral codes of 368 German-speaking Swiss couples during an 8-minute conflict interaction on a fine-grained scale (10-seconds sequences) using linguistic features and paralinguistic features derived with openSMILE. Our results show that both simpler TF-IDF features as well as more complex BERT features performed better than LIWC, and that adding paralinguistic features did not improve the performance. These results suggest it might be time to consider modern alternatives to LIWC, the de facto linguistic features in psychology, for prediction tasks in couples research. This work is a further step towards the automated coding of couples' behavior which could enhance couple research and therapy, and be utilized for other dyadic interactions as well.

Matthew J. Vowels, Necati Cihan Camgoz, Richard Bowden

An important goal across most scientific fields is the discovery of causal structures underling a set of observations. Unfortunately, causal discovery methods which are based on correlation or mutual information can often fail to identify causal links in systems which exhibit dynamic relationships. Such dynamic systems (including the famous coupled logistic map) exhibit `mirage' correlations which appear and disappear depending on the observation window. This means not only that correlation is not causation but, perhaps counter-intuitively, that causation may occur without correlation. In this paper we describe Neural Shadow-Mapping, a neural network based method which embeds high-dimensional video data into a low-dimensional shadow representation, for subsequent estimation of causal links. We demonstrate its performance at discovering causal links from video-representations of dynamic systems.

Matthew J. Vowels, Necati Cihan Camgoz, Richard Bowden

Disentangled representations support a range of downstream tasks including causal reasoning, generative modeling, and fair machine learning. Unfortunately, disentanglement has been shown to be impossible without the incorporation of supervision or inductive bias. Given that supervision is often expensive or infeasible to acquire, we choose to incorporate structural inductive bias and present an unsupervised, deep State-Space-Model for Video Disentanglement (VDSM). The model disentangles latent time-varying and dynamic factors via the incorporation of hierarchical structure with a dynamic prior and a Mixture of Experts decoder. VDSM learns separate disentangled representations for the identity of the object or person in the video, and for the action being performed. We evaluate VDSM across a range of qualitative and quantitative tasks including identity and dynamics transfer, sequence generation, Fréchet Inception Distance, and factor classification. VDSM provides state-of-the-art performance and exceeds adversarial methods, even when the methods use additional supervision.

Matthew J. Vowels, Necati Cihan Camgoz, Richard Bowden

Causal reasoning is a crucial part of science and human intelligence. In order to discover causal relationships from data, we need structure discovery methods. We provide a review of background theory and a survey of methods for structure discovery. We primarily focus on modern, continuous optimization methods, and provide reference to further resources such as benchmark datasets and software packages. Finally, we discuss the assumptive leap required to take us from structure to causality.

Matthew James Vowels, Necati Cihan Camgoz, Richard Bowden

Undertaking causal inference with observational data is incredibly useful across a wide range of tasks including the development of medical treatments, advertisements and marketing, and policy making. There are two significant challenges associated with undertaking causal inference using observational data: treatment assignment heterogeneity (\textit{i.e.}, differences between the treated and untreated groups), and an absence of counterfactual data (\textit{i.e.}, not knowing what would have happened if an individual who did get treatment, were instead to have not been treated). We address these two challenges by combining structured inference and targeted learning. In terms of structure, we factorize the joint distribution into risk, confounding, instrumental, and miscellaneous factors, and in terms of targeted learning, we apply a regularizer derived from the influence curve in order to reduce residual bias. An ablation study is undertaken, and an evaluation on benchmark datasets demonstrates that TVAE has competitive and state of the art performance.

Matthew J. Vowels, Necati Cihan Camgoz, Richard Bowden

Fair and unbiased machine learning is an important and active field of research, as decision processes are increasingly driven by models that learn from data. Unfortunately, any biases present in the data may be learned by the model, thereby inappropriately transferring that bias into the decision making process. We identify the connection between the task of bias reduction and that of isolating factors common between domains whilst encouraging domain specific invariance. To isolate the common factors we combine the theory of deep latent variable models with information bottleneck theory for scenarios whereby data may be naturally paired across domains and no additional supervision is required. The result is the Nested Variational AutoEncoder (NestedVAE). Two outer VAEs with shared weights attempt to reconstruct the input and infer a latent space, whilst a nested VAE attempts to reconstruct the latent representation of one image, from the latent representation of its paired image. In so doing, the nested VAE isolates the common latent factors/causes and becomes invariant to unwanted factors that are not shared between paired images. We also propose a new metric to provide a balanced method of evaluating consistency and classifier performance across domains which we refer to as the Adjusted Parity metric. An evaluation of NestedVAE on both domain and attribute invariance, change detection, and learning common factors for the prediction of biological sex demonstrates that NestedVAE significantly outperforms alternative methods.

Matthew J. Vowels, Necati Cihan Camgoz, Richard Bowden

Variational AutoEncoders (VAEs) provide a means to generate representational latent embeddings. Previous research has highlighted the benefits of achieving representations that are disentangled, particularly for downstream tasks. However, there is some debate about how to encourage disentanglement with VAEs and evidence indicates that existing implementations of VAEs do not achieve disentanglement consistently. The evaluation of how well a VAE's latent space has been disentangled is often evaluated against our subjective expectations of which attributes should be disentangled for a given problem. Therefore, by definition, we already have domain knowledge of what should be achieved and yet we use unsupervised approaches to achieve it. We propose a weakly-supervised approach that incorporates any available domain knowledge into the training process to form a Gated-VAE. The process involves partitioning the representational embedding and gating backpropagation. All partitions are utilised on the forward pass but gradients are backpropagated through different partitions according to selected image/target pairings. The approach can be used to modify existing VAE models such as beta-VAE, InfoVAE and DIP-VAE-II. Experiments demonstrate that using gated backpropagation, latent factors are represented in their intended partition. The approach is applied to images of faces for the purpose of disentangling head-pose from facial expression. Quantitative metrics show that using Gated-VAE improves average disentanglement, completeness and informativeness, as compared with un-gated implementations. Qualitative assessment of latent traversals demonstrate its disentanglement of head-pose from expression, even when only weak/noisy supervision is available.