Wei Cao

Tianping Zhang, Zheyu Zhang, Zhiyuan Fan et al.

The goal of automated feature generation is to liberate machine learning experts from the laborious task of manual feature generation, which is crucial for improving the learning performance of tabular data. The major challenge in automated feature generation is to efficiently and accurately identify effective features from a vast pool of candidate features. In this paper, we present OpenFE, an automated feature generation tool that provides competitive results against machine learning experts. OpenFE achieves high efficiency and accuracy with two components: 1) a novel feature boosting method for accurately evaluating the incremental performance of candidate features and 2) a two-stage pruning algorithm that performs feature pruning in a coarse-to-fine manner. Extensive experiments on ten benchmark datasets show that OpenFE outperforms existing baseline methods by a large margin. We further evaluate OpenFE in two Kaggle competitions with thousands of data science teams participating. In the two competitions, features generated by OpenFE with a simple baseline model can beat 99.3% and 99.6% data science teams respectively. In addition to the empirical results, we provide a theoretical perspective to show that feature generation can be beneficial in a simple yet representative setting. The code is available at https://github.com/ZhangTP1996/OpenFE.

Tianping Zhang, Yizhuo Zhang, Wei Cao et al. · tsinghua, uw

Multivariate time series forecasting has seen widely ranging applications in various domains, including finance, traffic, energy, and healthcare. To capture the sophisticated temporal patterns, plenty of research studies designed complex neural network architectures based on many variants of RNNs, GNNs, and Transformers. However, complex models are often computationally expensive and thus face a severe challenge in training and inference efficiency when applied to large-scale real-world datasets. In this paper, we introduce LightTS, a light deep learning architecture merely based on simple MLP-based structures. The key idea of LightTS is to apply an MLP-based structure on top of two delicate down-sampling strategies, including interval sampling and continuous sampling, inspired by a crucial fact that down-sampling time series often preserves the majority of its information. We conduct extensive experiments on eight widely used benchmark datasets. Compared with the existing state-of-the-art methods, LightTS demonstrates better performance on five of them and comparable performance on the rest. Moreover, LightTS is highly efficient. It uses less than 5% FLOPS compared with previous SOTA methods on the largest benchmark dataset. In addition, LightTS is robust and has a much smaller variance in forecasting accuracy than previous SOTA methods in long sequence forecasting tasks.

Wei Fan, Shun Zheng, Xiaohan Yi et al.

Periodic time series (PTS) forecasting plays a crucial role in a variety of industries to foster critical tasks, such as early warning, pre-planning, resource scheduling, etc. However, the complicated dependencies of the PTS signal on its inherent periodicity as well as the sophisticated composition of various periods hinder the performance of PTS forecasting. In this paper, we introduce a deep expansion learning framework, DEPTS, for PTS forecasting. DEPTS starts with a decoupled formulation by introducing the periodic state as a hidden variable, which stimulates us to make two dedicated modules to tackle the aforementioned two challenges. First, we develop an expansion module on top of residual learning to perform a layer-by-layer expansion of those complicated dependencies. Second, we introduce a periodicity module with a parameterized periodic function that holds sufficient capacity to capture diversified periods. Moreover, our two customized modules also have certain interpretable capabilities, such as attributing the forecasts to either local momenta or global periodicity and characterizing certain core periodic properties, e.g., amplitudes and frequencies. Extensive experiments on both synthetic data and real-world data demonstrate the effectiveness of DEPTS on handling PTS. In most cases, DEPTS achieves significant improvements over the best baseline. Specifically, the error reduction can even reach up to 20% for a few cases. Finally, all codes are publicly available.

Chenguo Lin, Xumeng Wen, Wei Cao et al.

Recent research on time-series self-supervised models shows great promise in learning semantic representations. However, it has been limited to small-scale datasets, e.g., thousands of temporal sequences. In this work, we make key technical contributions that are tailored to the numerical properties of time-series data and allow the model to scale to large datasets, e.g., millions of temporal sequences. We adopt the Transformer architecture by first partitioning the input into non-overlapping windows. Each window is then characterized by its normalized shape and two scalar values denoting the mean and standard deviation within each window. To embed scalar values that may possess arbitrary numerical amplitudes in a high-dimensional space, we propose a numerically multi-scaled embedding module enumerating all possible numerical scales for the scalars. The model undergoes pretraining with a simple contrastive objective on a large-scale dataset over a million sequences collected by merging existing public data. We study its transfer performance on a number of univariate and multivariate classification tasks, few shot learning, unsupervised clustering and anomaly detection benchmarks. Our method exhibits remarkable improvement against previous pretraining approaches and establishes the new state of the art, even compared with domain-specific non-learning-based methods. Code is available at: \url{https://github.com/chenguolin/NuTime}.

Jiawen Zhang, Shun Zheng, Wei Cao et al.

Irregularly sampled multivariate time series are ubiquitous in various fields, particularly in healthcare, and exhibit two key characteristics: intra-series irregularity and inter-series discrepancy. Intra-series irregularity refers to the fact that time-series signals are often recorded at irregular intervals, while inter-series discrepancy refers to the significant variability in sampling rates among diverse series. However, recent advances in irregular time series have primarily focused on addressing intra-series irregularity, overlooking the issue of inter-series discrepancy. To bridge this gap, we present Warpformer, a novel approach that fully considers these two characteristics. In a nutshell, Warpformer has several crucial designs, including a specific input representation that explicitly characterizes both intra-series irregularity and inter-series discrepancy, a warping module that adaptively unifies irregular time series in a given scale, and a customized attention module for representation learning. Additionally, we stack multiple warping and attention modules to learn at different scales, producing multi-scale representations that balance coarse-grained and fine-grained signals for downstream tasks. We conduct extensive experiments on widely used datasets and a new large-scale benchmark built from clinical databases. The results demonstrate the superiority of Warpformer over existing state-of-the-art approaches.

Hangting Ye, Zhining Liu, Xinyi Shen et al.

Unsupervised Anomaly Detection (UAD) is a key data mining problem owing to its wide real-world applications. Due to the complete absence of supervision signals, UAD methods rely on implicit assumptions about anomalous patterns (e.g., scattered/sparsely/densely clustered) to detect anomalies. However, real-world data are complex and vary significantly across different domains. No single assumption can describe such complexity and be valid in all scenarios. This is also confirmed by recent research that shows no UAD method is omnipotent. Based on above observations, instead of searching for a magic universal winner assumption, we seek to design a general UAD Booster (UADB) that empowers any UAD models with adaptability to different data. This is a challenging task given the heterogeneous model structures and assumptions adopted by existing UAD methods. To achieve this, we dive deep into the UAD problem and find that compared to normal data, anomalies (i) lack clear structure/pattern in feature space, thus (ii) harder to learn by model without a suitable assumption, and finally, leads to (iii) high variance between different learners. In light of these findings, we propose to (i) distill the knowledge of the source UAD model to an imitation learner (booster) that holds no data assumption, then (ii) exploit the variance between them to perform automatic correction, and thus (iii) improve the booster over the original UAD model. We use a neural network as the booster for its strong expressive power as a universal approximator and ability to perform flexible post-hoc tuning. Note that UADB is a model-agnostic framework that can enhance heterogeneous UAD models in a unified way. Extensive experiments on over 80 tabular datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of UADB.

Hongkuan Zhou, Wei Cao, Aifen Sui et al.

End-to-end autonomous driving, where the entire driving pipeline is replaced with a single neural network, has recently gained research attention because of its simpler structure and faster inference time. Despite this appealing approach largely reducing the complexity in the driving pipeline, it also leads to safety issues because the trained policy is not always compliant with the traffic rules. In this paper, we proposed P-CSG, a penalty-based imitation learning approach with contrastive-based cross semantics generation sensor fusion technologies to increase the overall performance of end-to-end autonomous driving. In this method, we introduce three penalties - red light, stop sign, and curvature speed penalty to make the agent more sensitive to traffic rules. The proposed cross semantics generation helps to align the shared information of different input modalities. We assessed our model's performance using the CARLA Leaderboard - Town 05 Long Benchmark and Longest6 Benchmark, achieving 8.5% and 2.0% driving score improvement compared to the baselines. Furthermore, we conducted robustness evaluations against adversarial attacks like FGSM and Dot attacks, revealing a substantial increase in robustness compared to other baseline models. More detailed information can be found at https://hk-zh.github.io/p-csg-plus.

Jun Wang, Wenjie Du, Yiyuan Yang et al.

Missing values are ubiquitous in multivariate time series (MTS) data, posing significant challenges for accurate analysis and downstream applications. In recent years, deep learning-based methods have successfully handled missing data by leveraging complex temporal dependencies and learned data distributions. In this survey, we provide a comprehensive summary of deep learning approaches for multivariate time series imputation (MTSI) tasks. We propose a novel taxonomy that categorizes existing methods based on two key perspectives: imputation uncertainty and neural network architecture. Furthermore, we summarize existing MTSI toolkits with a particular emphasis on the PyPOTS Ecosystem, which provides an integrated and standardized foundation for MTSI research. Finally, we discuss key challenges and future research directions, which give insight for further MTSI research. This survey aims to serve as a valuable resource for researchers and practitioners in the field of time series analysis and missing data imputation tasks.A well-maintained MTSI paper and tool list are available at https://github.com/WenjieDu/Awesome_Imputation.

Zhining Liu, Pengfei Wei, Zhepei Wei et al.

Class-imbalance is a common problem in machine learning practice. Typical Imbalanced Learning (IL) methods balance the data via intuitive class-wise resampling or reweighting. However, previous studies suggest that beyond class-imbalance, intrinsic data difficulty factors like overlapping, noise, and small disjuncts also play critical roles. To handle them, many solutions have been proposed (e.g., noise removal, borderline sampling, hard example mining) but are still confined to a specific factor and cannot generalize to broader scenarios, which raises an interesting question: how to handle both class-agnostic difficulties and the class-imbalance in a unified way? To answer this, we consider both class-imbalance and its orthogonal: intra-class imbalance, i.e., the imbalanced distribution over easy and hard samples. Such distribution naturally reflects the complex influence of class-agnostic intrinsic data difficulties thus providing a new unified view for identifying and handling these factors during learning. From this perspective, we discuss the pros and cons of existing IL solutions and further propose new balancing techniques for more robust and efficient IL. Finally, we wrap up all solutions into a generic ensemble IL framework, namely DuBE (Duple-Balanced Ensemble). It features explicit and efficient inter-\&intra-class balancing as well as easy extension with standardized APIs. Extensive experiments validate the effectiveness of DuBE. Code, examples, and documentation are available at https://github.com/AnonAuthorAI/duplebalance and https://duplebalance.readthedocs.io.

Zhining Liu, Pengfei Wei, Jing Jiang et al.

Imbalanced learning (IL), i.e., learning unbiased models from class-imbalanced data, is a challenging problem. Typical IL methods including resampling and reweighting were designed based on some heuristic assumptions. They often suffer from unstable performance, poor applicability, and high computational cost in complex tasks where their assumptions do not hold. In this paper, we introduce a novel ensemble IL framework named MESA. It adaptively resamples the training set in iterations to get multiple classifiers and forms a cascade ensemble model. MESA directly learns the sampling strategy from data to optimize the final metric beyond following random heuristics. Moreover, unlike prevailing meta-learning-based IL solutions, we decouple the model-training and meta-training in MESA by independently train the meta-sampler over task-agnostic meta-data. This makes MESA generally applicable to most of the existing learning models and the meta-sampler can be efficiently applied to new tasks. Extensive experiments on both synthetic and real-world tasks demonstrate the effectiveness, robustness, and transferability of MESA. Our code is available at https://github.com/ZhiningLiu1998/mesa.

Yanfei Kang, Wei Cao, Fotios Petropoulos et al.

Forecast combinations have been widely applied in the last few decades to improve forecasting. Estimating optimal weights that can outperform simple averages is not always an easy task. In recent years, the idea of using time series features for forecast combination has flourished. Although this idea has been proved to be beneficial in several forecasting competitions, it may not be practical in many situations. For example, the task of selecting appropriate features to build forecasting models is often challenging. Even if there was an acceptable way to define the features, existing features are estimated based on the historical patterns, which are likely to change in the future. Other times, the estimation of the features is infeasible due to limited historical data. In this work, we suggest a change of focus from the historical data to the produced forecasts to extract features. We use out-of-sample forecasts to obtain weights for forecast combinations by amplifying the diversity of the pool of methods being combined. A rich set of time series is used to evaluate the performance of the proposed method. Experimental results show that our diversity-based forecast combination framework not only simplifies the modelling process but also achieves superior forecasting performance in terms of both point forecasts and prediction intervals. The value of our proposition lies on its simplicity, transparency, and computational efficiency, elements that are important from both an optimisation and a decision analysis perspective.