Yulin kang

Zhixuan Chu, Hui Ding, Guang Zeng et al.

Marketing campaigns are a set of strategic activities that can promote a business's goal. The effect prediction for marketing campaigns in a real industrial scenario is very complex and challenging due to the fact that prior knowledge is often learned from observation data, without any intervention for the marketing campaign. Furthermore, each subject is always under the interference of several marketing campaigns simultaneously. Therefore, we cannot easily parse and evaluate the effect of a single marketing campaign. To the best of our knowledge, there are currently no effective methodologies to solve such a problem, i.e., modeling an individual-level prediction task based on a hierarchical structure with multiple intertwined events. In this paper, we provide an in-depth analysis of the underlying parse tree-like structure involved in the effect prediction task and we further establish a Hierarchical Capsule Prediction Network (HapNet) for predicting the effects of marketing campaigns. Extensive results based on both the synthetic data and real data demonstrate the superiority of our model over the state-of-the-art methods and show remarkable practicability in real industrial applications.

Jiayi Liu, Wei Wei, Zhixuan Chu et al.

Although the Conditional Variational AutoEncoder (CVAE) model can generate more diversified responses than the traditional Seq2Seq model, the responses often have low relevance with the input words or are illogical with the question. A causal analysis is carried out to study the reasons behind, and a methodology of searching for the mediators and mitigating the confounding bias in dialogues is provided. Specifically, we propose to predict the mediators to preserve relevant information and auto-regressively incorporate the mediators into generating process. Besides, a dynamic topic graph guided conditional variational autoencoder (TGG-CVAE) model is utilized to complement the semantic space and reduce the confounding bias in responses. Extensive experiments demonstrate that the proposed model is able to generate both relevant and informative responses, and outperforms the state-of-the-art in terms of automatic metrics and human evaluations.

Mingming Zhang, Pengfei Shi, Zhiqing Xiao et al.

Predictive modeling on web-scale tabular data with billions of instances and hundreds of heterogeneous numerical features faces significant scalability challenges. These features exhibit anisotropy, heavy-tailed distributions, and non-stationarity, creating bottlenecks for models like Gradient Boosting Decision Trees and requiring laborious manual feature engineering. We introduce KMLP, a hybrid deep architecture integrating a shallow Kolmogorov-Arnold Network (KAN) front-end with a Gated Multilayer Perceptron (gMLP) backbone. The KAN front-end uses learnable activation functions to automatically model complex non-linear transformations for each feature, while the gMLP backbone captures high-order interactions. Experiments on public benchmarks and an industrial dataset with billions of samples show KMLP achieves state-of-the-art performance, with advantages over baselines like GBDTs increasing at larger scales, validating KMLP as a scalable deep learning paradigm for large-scale web tabular data.

Daixin Wang, Zhiqiang Zhang, Yeyu Zhao et al.

User financial default prediction plays a critical role in credit risk forecasting and management. It aims at predicting the probability that the user will fail to make the repayments in the future. Previous methods mainly extract a set of user individual features regarding his own profiles and behaviors and build a binary-classification model to make default predictions. However, these methods cannot get satisfied results, especially for users with limited information. Although recent efforts suggest that default prediction can be improved by social relations, they fail to capture the higher-order topology structure at the level of small subgraph patterns. In this paper, we fill in this gap by proposing a motif-preserving Graph Neural Network with curriculum learning (MotifGNN) to jointly learn the lower-order structures from the original graph and higherorder structures from multi-view motif-based graphs for financial default prediction. Specifically, to solve the problem of weak connectivity in motif-based graphs, we design the motif-based gating mechanism. It utilizes the information learned from the original graph with good connectivity to strengthen the learning of the higher-order structure. And considering that the motif patterns of different samples are highly unbalanced, we propose a curriculum learning mechanism on the whole learning process to more focus on the samples with uncommon motif distributions. Extensive experiments on one public dataset and two industrial datasets all demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed method.

Xi Chen, Siwei Zhang, Yun Xiong et al.

Temporal Interaction Graphs (TIGs) are widely utilized to represent real-world systems. To facilitate representation learning on TIGs, researchers have proposed a series of TIG models. However, these models are still facing two tough gaps between the pre-training and downstream predictions in their ``pre-train, predict'' training paradigm. First, the temporal discrepancy between the pre-training and inference data severely undermines the models' applicability in distant future predictions on the dynamically evolving data. Second, the semantic divergence between pretext and downstream tasks hinders their practical applications, as they struggle to align with their learning and prediction capabilities across application scenarios. Recently, the ``pre-train, prompt'' paradigm has emerged as a lightweight mechanism for model generalization. Applying this paradigm is a potential solution to solve the aforementioned challenges. However, the adaptation of this paradigm to TIGs is not straightforward. The application of prompting in static graph contexts falls short in temporal settings due to a lack of consideration for time-sensitive dynamics and a deficiency in expressive power. To address this issue, we introduce Temporal Interaction Graph Prompting (TIGPrompt), a versatile framework that seamlessly integrates with TIG models, bridging both the temporal and semantic gaps. In detail, we propose a temporal prompt generator to offer temporally-aware prompts for different tasks. These prompts stand out for their minimalistic design, relying solely on the tuning of the prompt generator with very little supervision data. To cater to varying computational resource demands, we propose an extended ``pre-train, prompt-based fine-tune'' paradigm, offering greater flexibility. Through extensive experiments, the TIGPrompt demonstrates the SOTA performance and remarkable efficiency advantages.

Dingyuan Zhu, Daixin Wang, Zhiqiang Zhang et al.

Uplift modeling aims to measure the incremental effect, which we call uplift, of a strategy or action on the users from randomized experiments or observational data. Most existing uplift methods only use individual data, which are usually not informative enough to capture the unobserved and complex hidden factors regarding the uplift. Furthermore, uplift modeling scenario usually has scarce labeled data, especially for the treatment group, which also poses a great challenge for model training. Considering that the neighbors' features and the social relationships are very informative to characterize a user's uplift, we propose a graph neural network-based framework with two uplift estimators, called GNUM, to learn from the social graph for uplift estimation. Specifically, we design the first estimator based on a class-transformed target. The estimator is general for all types of outcomes, and is able to comprehensively model the treatment and control group data together to approach the uplift. When the outcome is discrete, we further design the other uplift estimator based on our defined partial labels, which is able to utilize more labeled data from both the treatment and control groups, to further alleviate the label scarcity problem. Comprehensive experiments on a public dataset and two industrial datasets show a superior performance of our proposed framework over state-of-the-art methods under various evaluation metrics. The proposed algorithms have been deployed online to serve real-world uplift estimation scenarios.

Mingming Zhang, Jiahao Hu, Pengfei Shi et al.

Tabular data plays a critical role in real-world financial scenarios. Traditionally, tree models have dominated in handling tabular data. However, financial datasets in the industry often encounter some challenges, such as data heterogeneity, the predominance of numerical features and the large scale of the data, which can range from tens of millions to hundreds of millions of records. These challenges can lead to significant memory and computational issues when using tree-based models. Consequently, there is a growing need for neural network-based solutions that can outperform these models. In this paper, we introduce TKGMLP, an hybrid network for tabular data that combines shallow Kolmogorov Arnold Networks with Gated Multilayer Perceptron. This model leverages the strengths of both architectures to improve performance and scalability. We validate TKGMLP on a real-world credit scoring dataset, where it achieves state-of-the-art results and outperforms current benchmarks. Furthermore, our findings demonstrate that the model continues to improve as the dataset size increases, making it highly scalable. Additionally, we propose a novel feature encoding method for numerical data, specifically designed to address the predominance of numerical features in financial datasets. The integration of this feature encoding method within TKGMLP significantly improves prediction accuracy. This research not only advances table prediction technology but also offers a practical and effective solution for handling large-scale numerical tabular data in various industrial applications.