Mingjun Chen

Daniel Lopez-Martinez, Alex Yakubovich, Martin Seneviratne et al.

While it has been well known in the ML community that deep learning models suffer from instability, the consequences for healthcare deployments are under characterised. We study the stability of different model architectures trained on electronic health records, using a set of outpatient prediction tasks as a case study. We show that repeated training runs of the same deep learning model on the same training data can result in significantly different outcomes at a patient level even though global performance metrics remain stable. We propose two stability metrics for measuring the effect of randomness of model training, as well as mitigation strategies for improving model stability.

Eric Loreaux, Ke Yu, Jonas Kemp et al.

Machine learning systems show significant promise for forecasting patient adverse events via risk scores. However, these risk scores implicitly encode assumptions about future interventions that the patient is likely to receive, based on the intervention policy present in the training data. Without this important context, predictions from such systems are less interpretable for clinicians. We propose a joint model of intervention policy and adverse event risk as a means to explicitly communicate the model's assumptions about future interventions. We develop such an intervention policy model on MIMIC-III, a real world de-identified ICU dataset, and discuss some use cases that highlight the utility of this approach. We show how combining typical risk scores, such as the likelihood of mortality, with future intervention probability scores leads to more interpretable clinical predictions.

Chenyu Liu, Jia Pan, Jinshui Hu et al.

Recently, Handwritten Mathematical Expression Recognition (HMER) has gained considerable attention in pattern recognition for its diverse applications in document understanding. Current methods typically approach HMER as an image-to-sequence generation task within an autoregressive (AR) encoder-decoder framework. However, these approaches suffer from several drawbacks: 1) a lack of overall language context, limiting information utilization beyond the current decoding step; 2) error accumulation during AR decoding; and 3) slow decoding speed. To tackle these problems, this paper makes the first attempt to build a novel bottom-up Non-AutoRegressive Modeling approach for HMER, called NAMER. NAMER comprises a Visual Aware Tokenizer (VAT) and a Parallel Graph Decoder (PGD). Initially, the VAT tokenizes visible symbols and local relations at a coarse level. Subsequently, the PGD refines all tokens and establishes connectivities in parallel, leveraging comprehensive visual and linguistic contexts. Experiments on CROHME 2014/2016/2019 and HME100K datasets demonstrate that NAMER not only outperforms the current state-of-the-art (SOTA) methods on ExpRate by 1.93%/2.35%/1.49%/0.62%, but also achieves significant speedups of 13.7x and 6.7x faster in decoding time and overall FPS, proving the effectiveness and efficiency of NAMER.

Daniel Lopez-Martinez, Christina Chen, Ming-Jun Chen

Chronic kidney disease (CKD) represents a slowly progressive disorder that can eventually require renal replacement therapy (RRT) including dialysis or renal transplantation. Early identification of patients who will require RRT (as much as 1 year in advance) improves patient outcomes, for example by allowing higher-quality vascular access for dialysis. Therefore, early recognition of the need for RRT by care teams is key to successfully managing the disease. Unfortunately, there is currently no commonly used predictive tool for RRT initiation. In this work, we present a machine learning model that dynamically identifies CKD patients at risk of requiring RRT up to one year in advance using only claims data. To evaluate the model, we studied approximately 3 million Medicare beneficiaries for which we made over 8 million predictions. We showed that the model can identify at risk patients with over 90% sensitivity and specificity. Although additional work is required before this approach is ready for clinical use, this study provides a basis for a screening tool to identify patients at risk within a time window that enables early proactive interventions intended to improve RRT outcomes.