Weiming Liu

Hao Wang, Zhichao Chen, Jiajun Fan et al. · pku

Estimating conditional average treatment effect from observational data is highly challenging due to the existence of treatment selection bias. Prevalent methods mitigate this issue by aligning distributions of different treatment groups in the latent space. However, there are two critical problems that these methods fail to address: (1) mini-batch sampling effects (MSE), which causes misalignment in non-ideal mini-batches with outcome imbalance and outliers; (2) unobserved confounder effects (UCE), which results in inaccurate discrepancy calculation due to the neglect of unobserved confounders. To tackle these problems, we propose a principled approach named Entire Space CounterFactual Regression (ESCFR), which is a new take on optimal transport in the context of causality. Specifically, based on the framework of stochastic optimal transport, we propose a relaxed mass-preserving regularizer to address the MSE issue and design a proximal factual outcome regularizer to handle the UCE issue. Extensive experiments demonstrate that our proposed ESCFR can successfully tackle the treatment selection bias and achieve significantly better performance than state-of-the-art methods.

Jian Yao, Weiming Liu, Haobo Fu et al.

Policy-Space Response Oracles (PSRO) is an influential algorithm framework for approximating a Nash Equilibrium (NE) in multi-agent non-transitive games. Many previous studies have been trying to promote policy diversity in PSRO. A major weakness in existing diversity metrics is that a more diverse (according to their diversity metrics) population does not necessarily mean (as we proved in the paper) a better approximation to a NE. To alleviate this problem, we propose a new diversity metric, the improvement of which guarantees a better approximation to a NE. Meanwhile, we develop a practical and well-justified method to optimize our diversity metric using only state-action samples. By incorporating our diversity regularization into the best response solving in PSRO, we obtain a new PSRO variant, Policy Space Diversity PSRO (PSD-PSRO). We present the convergence property of PSD-PSRO. Empirically, extensive experiments on various games demonstrate that PSD-PSRO is more effective in producing significantly less exploitable policies than state-of-the-art PSRO variants.

Weiming Liu, Huacong Jiang, Bin Li et al.

Follow-the-Regularized-Lead (FTRL) and Online Mirror Descent (OMD) are regret minimization algorithms for Online Convex Optimization (OCO), they are mathematically elegant but less practical in solving Extensive-Form Games (EFGs). Counterfactual Regret Minimization (CFR) is a technique for approximating Nash equilibria in EFGs. CFR and its variants have a fast convergence rate in practice, but their theoretical results are not satisfactory. In recent years, researchers have been trying to link CFRs with OCO algorithms, which may provide new theoretical results and inspire new algorithms. However, existing analysis is restricted to local decision points. In this paper, we show that CFRs with Regret Matching and Regret Matching+ are equivalent to special cases of FTRL and OMD, respectively. According to these equivalences, a new FTRL and a new OMD algorithm, which can be considered as extensions of vanilla CFR and CFR+, are derived. The experimental results show that the two variants converge faster than conventional FTRL and OMD, even faster than vanilla CFR and CFR+ in some EFGs.

Weiming Liu, Bin Li, Julian Togelius

Counterfactual Regret Minimization (CFR) has achieved many fascinating results in solving large-scale Imperfect Information Games (IIGs). Neural network approximation CFR (neural CFR) is one of the promising techniques that can reduce computation and memory consumption by generalizing decision information between similar states. Current neural CFR algorithms have to approximate cumulative regrets. However, efficient and accurate approximation in a large-scale IIG is still a tough challenge. In this paper, a new CFR variant, Recursive CFR (ReCFR), is proposed. In ReCFR, Recursive Substitute Values (RSVs) are learned and used to replace cumulative regrets. It is proven that ReCFR can converge to a Nash equilibrium at a rate of $O({1}/{\sqrt{T}})$. Based on ReCFR, a new model-free neural CFR with bootstrap learning, Neural ReCFR-B, is proposed. Due to the recursive and non-cumulative nature of RSVs, Neural ReCFR-B has lower-variance training targets than other neural CFRs. Experimental results show that Neural ReCFR-B is competitive with the state-of-the-art neural CFR algorithms at a much lower training cost.