Jalal Etesami

Yaroslav Kivva, Ehsan Mokhtarian, Jalal Etesami et al.

We revisit the problem of general identifiability originally introduced in [Lee et al., 2019] for causal inference and note that it is necessary to add positivity assumption of observational distribution to the original definition of the problem. We show that without such an assumption the rules of do-calculus and consequently the proposed algorithm in [Lee et al., 2019] are not sound. Moreover, adding the assumption will cause the completeness proof in [Lee et al., 2019] to fail. Under positivity assumption, we present a new algorithm that is provably both sound and complete. A nice property of this new algorithm is that it establishes a connection between general identifiability and classical identifiability by Pearl [1995] through decomposing the general identifiability problem into a series of classical identifiability sub-problems.

Mikhail Konobeev, Jalal Etesami, Negar Kiyavash

We study the causal bandit problem when the causal graph is unknown and develop an efficient algorithm for finding the parent node of the reward node using atomic interventions. We derive the exact equation for the expected number of interventions performed by the algorithm and show that under certain graphical conditions it could perform either logarithmically fast or, under more general assumptions, slower but still sublinearly in the number of variables. We formally show that our algorithm is optimal as it meets the universal lower bound we establish for any algorithm that performs atomic interventions. Finally, we extend our algorithm to the case when the reward node has multiple parents. Using this algorithm together with a standard algorithm from bandit literature leads to improved regret bounds.

Ehsan Mokhtarian, Mohammadsadegh Khorasani, Jalal Etesami et al.

We propose ordering-based approaches for learning the maximal ancestral graph (MAG) of a structural equation model (SEM) up to its Markov equivalence class (MEC) in the presence of unobserved variables. Existing ordering-based methods in the literature recover a graph through learning a causal order (c-order). We advocate for a novel order called removable order (r-order) as they are advantageous over c-orders for structure learning. This is because r-orders are the minimizers of an appropriately defined optimization problem that could be either solved exactly (using a reinforcement learning approach) or approximately (using a hill-climbing search). Moreover, the r-orders (unlike c-orders) are invariant among all the graphs in a MEC and include c-orders as a subset. Given that set of r-orders is often significantly larger than the set of c-orders, it is easier for the optimization problem to find an r-order instead of a c-order. We evaluate the performance and the scalability of our proposed approaches on both real-world and randomly generated networks.

Sina Akbari, Fateme Jamshidi, Ehsan Mokhtarian et al.

Causal identification is at the core of the causal inference literature, where complete algorithms have been proposed to identify causal queries of interest. The validity of these algorithms hinges on the restrictive assumption of having access to a correctly specified causal structure. In this work, we study the setting where a probabilistic model of the causal structure is available. Specifically, the edges in a causal graph exist with uncertainties which may, for example, represent degree of belief from domain experts. Alternatively, the uncertainty about an edge may reflect the confidence of a particular statistical test. The question that naturally arises in this setting is: Given such a probabilistic graph and a specific causal effect of interest, what is the subgraph which has the highest plausibility and for which the causal effect is identifiable? We show that answering this question reduces to solving an NP-complete combinatorial optimization problem which we call the edge ID problem. We propose efficient algorithms to approximate this problem and evaluate them against both real-world networks and randomly generated graphs.

Yaroslav Kivva, Jalal Etesami, Negar Kiyavash

We address the problem of identifiability of an arbitrary conditional causal effect given both the causal graph and a set of any observational and/or interventional distributions of the form $Q[S]:=P(S|do(V\setminus S))$, where $V$ denotes the set of all observed variables and $S\subseteq V$. We call this problem conditional generalized identifiability (c-gID in short) and prove the completeness of Pearl's $do$-calculus for the c-gID problem by providing sound and complete algorithm for the c-gID problem. This work revisited the c-gID problem in Lee et al. [2020], Correa et al. [2021] by adding explicitly the positivity assumption which is crucial for identifiability. It extends the results of [Lee et al., 2019, Kivva et al., 2022] on general identifiability (gID) which studied the problem for unconditional causal effects and Shpitser and Pearl [2006b] on identifiability of conditional causal effects given merely the observational distribution $P(\mathbf{V})$ as our algorithm generalizes the algorithms proposed in [Kivva et al., 2022] and [Shpitser and Pearl, 2006b].

Sepehr Elahi, Sina Akbari, Jalal Etesami et al.

Identifying causal effects is a key problem of interest across many disciplines. The two long-standing approaches to estimate causal effects are observational and experimental (randomized) studies. Observational studies can suffer from unmeasured confounding, which may render the causal effects unidentifiable. On the other hand, direct experiments on the target variable may be too costly or even infeasible to conduct. A middle ground between these two approaches is to estimate the causal effect of interest through proxy experiments, which are conducted on variables with a lower cost to intervene on compared to the main target. Akbari et al. [2022] studied this setting and demonstrated that the problem of designing the optimal (minimum-cost) experiment for causal effect identification is NP-complete and provided a naive algorithm that may require solving exponentially many NP-hard problems as a sub-routine in the worst case. In this work, we provide a few reformulations of the problem that allow for designing significantly more efficient algorithms to solve it as witnessed by our extensive simulations. Additionally, we study the closely-related problem of designing experiments that enable us to identify a given effect through valid adjustments sets.

Yutong Chao, Resat Gökhan, Jalal Etesami et al.

We study a nonlinear factor model in which observed responses depend on low-rank latent factors through an unknown monotone link function. This setting is challenging and largely underexplored due to severe nonconvexity and identifiability issues. The link function is assumed to lie in a reproducing kernel Hilbert space (RKHS), enabling flexible nonparametric modeling while preserving identifiability. We formulate the problem as the joint recovery of the low-rank factors, loadings, and the nonlinear link function from possibly incomplete and noisy observations and propose a projected block coordinate descent (BCD) algorithm with explicit regularization to address scale and rotational ambiguities. Under mild incoherence of factors and standard sampling conditions, we establish convergence guarantees in both noiseless and noisy regimes, along with sublinear regret bounds for the link-function updates. Our results extend classical linear factor models to a broad nonlinear regime and provide a principled framework for learning nonlinear latent structures. We evaluate the proposed approach using controlled synthetic experiments, indicating promising performance.

Sina Akbari, Jalal Etesami, Negar Kiyavash

Pearl's do calculus is a complete axiomatic approach to learn the identifiable causal effects from observational data. When such an effect is not identifiable, it is necessary to perform a collection of often costly interventions in the system to learn the causal effect. In this work, we consider the problem of designing the collection of interventions with the minimum cost to identify the desired effect. First, we prove that this problem is NP-hard, and subsequently propose an algorithm that can either find the optimal solution or a logarithmic-factor approximation of it. This is done by establishing a connection between our problem and the minimum hitting set problem. Additionally, we propose several polynomial-time heuristic algorithms to tackle the computational complexity of the problem. Although these algorithms could potentially stumble on sub-optimal solutions, our simulations show that they achieve small regrets on random graphs.

Yutong Chao, Xudong Sun, Konstantin Riedl et al.

In this paper, we study a consensus-based optimization method for nonconvex bi-level optimization, where the objective is to minimize an upper-level function over the set of global minimizers of a lower-level problem. The proposed approach is derivative-free, and constructs its consensus point via smooth quantile selection combined with a Gibbs-type Laplace approximation. We establish convergence guarantees for both the associated \textit{mean-field} dynamics and its \textit{finite-particle} approximation. In particular, under suitable assumptions on smooth quantile localization, error bounds, and stability, we show that the mean-field law reaches any arbitrary prescribed Wasserstein neighborhood of the target bi-level solution with an explicit exponential rate up to the hitting time. Numerical experiments on a two-dimensional constrained problem and neural network training further support the theoretical results.

Mohammad Shahverdikondori, Jalal Etesami, Negar Kiyavash

We study the contextual multi-armed bandit problem with a finite context space (a.k.a. subpopulations), where the learner recommends a best action for each context and is evaluated by context-weighted simple regret. Our guarantees are worst-case over the reward distributions, while remaining instance-dependent with respect to the context distribution vector $p$. Akin to experimental design problems where the population of interest is fixed but the sampled subpopulation can be controlled, we allow the learner to actively choose which context to sample from. For a known $p$, we characterize tight regret rates: passive sampling where contexts are randomly revealed achieves regret of order $\sqrt{n/T \, \lVert p \rVert_{1/2}}$, whereas active sampling with allocation $q_j \propto p_j^{2/3}$ achieves the tight rate $\sqrt{n/T} \, \lVert p \rVert_{2/3}$. The resulting improvement can be as large as $Θ(k^{1/4})$, where $k$ is the number of contexts. We further extend the analysis to budgeted active sampling, characterize the corresponding tight rate, and identify when a limited active budget suffices to recover the fully active rate. When $p$ is unknown, we propose the Explore-Explore-Then-Commit (EETC) algorithm, which optimally balances estimating the context distribution and the time to switch to active allocation, such that for large horizons, it matches the known-$p$ active rate up to constants. Experiments on synthetic and real-world data support our theoretical findings.

Laura Schopp, Ambra DImperio, Jalal Etesami et al.

While explainable AI (XAI) is often heralded as a means to enhance transparency and trustworthiness in closed-loop neurotechnology for psychiatric and neurological conditions, its real-world prevalence remains low. Moreover, empirical evidence suggests that the type of explanations provided by current XAI methods often fails to align with clinicians' end-user needs. In this viewpoint, we argue that clinically meaningful explainability (CME) is essential for AI-enabled closed-loop medical neurotechnology and must be addressed from an ethical, technical, and clinical perspective. Instead of exhaustive technical detail, clinicians prioritize clinically relevant, actionable explanations, such as clear representations of input-output relationships and feature importance. Full technical transparency, although theoretically desirable, often proves irrelevant or even overwhelming in practice, as it may lead to informational overload. Therefore, we advocate for CME in the neurotechnology domain: prioritizing actionable clarity over technical completeness and designing interface visualizations that intuitively map AI outputs and key features into clinically meaningful formats. To this end, we introduce a reference architecture called NeuroXplain, which translates CME into actionable technical design recommendations for any future neurostimulation device. Our aim is to inform stakeholders working in neurotechnology and regulatory framework development to ensure that explainability fulfills the right needs for the right stakeholders and ultimately leads to better patient treatment and care.

Tobias Maringgele, Jalal Etesami

Causal queries are often only partially identifiable from observational data, and experiments that could tighten the resulting bounds are typically costly. We study the problem of selecting, prior to observing experimental outcomes, a cost-constrained subset of experiments that maximally tightens bounds on a target query. We formalize this as the max-potency problem, where epistemic potency measures the worst-case reduction in bound width guaranteed by an experiment, and show that this problem is NP-hard via a reduction from 0-1 knapsack. Building on the polynomial-programming framework of Duarte et al. (2023), we give a general procedure for evaluating epistemic potency in discrete settings. To control the super-exponential search space, we introduce two graphical pruning criteria that depend only on the causal graph and the query: a novel path-interception rule that exploits district structure to certify zero potency in linear time, and an identifiability check based on the ID algorithm. On Erdos-Renyi random graphs and 11 bnlearn benchmark networks, the two criteria together prune 50-88% of candidate experiments on average without solving a single polynomial program. For the general subset search, we show that ID-pruned experiments are combinatorially inert, yielding a super-exponential reduction in the number of subsets evaluated. We close with an end-to-end demonstration on observational NHANES data, selecting optimal experiments for estimating the effect of physical activity on diabetes.

Fateme Jamshidi, Jalal Etesami, Negar Kiyavash

We study the problem of learning 'good' interventions in a stochastic environment modeled by its underlying causal graph. Good interventions refer to interventions that maximize rewards. Specifically, we consider the setting of a pre-specified budget constraint, where interventions can have non-uniform costs. We show that this problem can be formulated as maximizing the expected reward for a stochastic multi-armed bandit with side information. We propose an algorithm to minimize the cumulative regret in general causal graphs. This algorithm trades off observations and interventions based on their costs to achieve the optimal reward. This algorithm generalizes the state-of-the-art methods by allowing non-uniform costs and hidden confounders in the causal graph. Furthermore, we develop an algorithm to minimize the simple regret in the budgeted setting with non-uniform costs and also general causal graphs. We provide theoretical guarantees, including both upper and lower bounds, as well as empirical evaluations of our algorithms. Our empirical results showcase that our algorithms outperform the state of the art.

Jalal Etesami, Ali Habibnia, Negar Kiyavash

We propose a nonparametric and time-varying directed information graph (TV-DIG) framework to estimate the evolving causal structure in time series networks, thereby addressing the limitations of traditional econometric models in capturing high-dimensional, nonlinear, and time-varying interconnections among series. This framework employs an information-theoretic measure rooted in a generalized version of Granger-causality, which is applicable to both linear and nonlinear dynamics. Our framework offers advancements in measuring systemic risk and establishes meaningful connections with established econometric models, including vector autoregression and switching models. We evaluate the efficacy of our proposed model through simulation experiments and empirical analysis, reporting promising results in recovering simulated time-varying networks with nonlinear and multivariate structures. We apply this framework to identify and monitor the evolution of interconnectedness and systemic risk among major assets and industrial sectors within the financial network. We focus on cryptocurrencies' potential systemic risks to financial stability, including spillover effects on other sectors during crises like the COVID-19 pandemic and the Federal Reserve's 2020 emergency response. Our findings reveals significant, previously underrecognized pre-2020 influences of cryptocurrencies on certain financial sectors, highlighting their potential systemic risks and offering a systematic approach in tracking evolving cross-sector interactions within financial networks.

Suryanarayana Sankagiri, Jalal Etesami, Matthias Grossglauser

This paper provides a theoretical analysis of a new learning problem for recommender systems where users provide feedback by comparing pairs of items instead of rating them individually. We assume that comparisons stem from latent user and item features, which reduces the task of predicting preferences to learning these features from comparison data. Similar to the classical matrix factorization problem, the main challenge in this learning task is that the resulting loss function is nonconvex. Our analysis shows that the loss function exhibits (restricted) strong convexity near the true solution, which ensures gradient-based methods converge exponentially, given an appropriate warm start. Importantly, this result holds in a sparse data regime, where each user compares only a few pairs of items. Our main technical contribution is to extend certain concentration inequalities commonly used in matrix completion to our model. Our work demonstrates that learning personalized recommendations from comparison data is computationally and statistically efficient.

Mohammad Shahverdikondori, Jalal Etesami, Negar Kiyavash

We study regret minimization in causal bandits under causal sufficiency where the underlying causal structure is not known to the agent. Previous work has focused on identifying the reward's parents and then applying classic bandit methods to them, or jointly learning the parents while minimizing regret. We investigate whether such strategies are optimal. Somewhat counterintuitively, our results show that learning the parent set is suboptimal. We do so by proving that there exist instances where regret minimization and parent identification are fundamentally conflicting objectives. We further analyze both the known and unknown parent set size regimes, establish novel regret lower bounds that capture the combinatorial structure of the action space. Building on these insights, we propose nearly optimal algorithms that bypass graph and parent recovery, demonstrating that parent identification is indeed unnecessary for regret minimization. Experiments confirm that there exists a large performance gap between our method and existing baselines in various environments.

Larkin Liu, Jalal Etesami

We explore the use of expert-guided bandit learning, which we refer to as online mixture-of-experts (OMoE). In this setting, given a context, a candidate committee of experts must determine how to aggregate their outputs to achieve optimal results in terms of aggregate accuracy. We propose two algorithms to address this problem. The first algorithm combines aggregate voting with UCB-driven successive elimination, efficiently pruning suboptimal exploration actions. The second algorithm employs an online weighted-majority-voting mechanism, leveraging the respective voting power of each expert proportional to their predictive power. We derive theoretical guarantees for the regret properties in the bandit setting under ideal circumstances, and empirical results are provided accordingly. As a modern study on applications, these methods are applied to the online fine-tuning of a set of expert large language models (LLMs), where after each response, the generative LLM dynamically reweighs its set of experts and/or selects the optimal committee of experts to generate the most accurate response. Our results introduce new methodologies and no-regret guarantees for combining multiple experts to improve on the performance of the an aggregate model overall.

Suryanarayana Sankagiri, Jalal Etesami, Pouria Fatemi et al.

The contextual duelling bandit problem models adaptive recommender systems, where the algorithm presents a set of items to the user, and the user's choice reveals their preference. This setup is well suited for implicit choices users make when navigating a content platform, but does not capture other possible comparison queries. Motivated by the fact that users provide more reliable feedback after consuming items, we propose a new bandit model that can be described as follows. The algorithm recommends one item per time step; after consuming that item, the user is asked to compare it with another item chosen from the user's consumption history. Importantly, in our model, this comparison item can be chosen without incurring any additional regret, potentially leading to better performance. However, the regret analysis is challenging because of the temporal dependency in the user's history. To overcome this challenge, we first show that the algorithm can construct informative queries provided the history is rich, i.e., satisfies a certain diversity condition. We then show that a short initial random exploration phase is sufficient for the algorithm to accumulate a rich history with high probability. This result, proven via matrix concentration bounds, yields $O(\sqrt{T})$ regret guarantees. Additionally, our simulations show that reusing past items for comparisons can lead to significantly lower regret than only comparing between simultaneously recommended items.

Larkin Liu, Kashif Rasul, Yutong Chao et al.

We present a novel framework for online learning in Stackelberg general-sum games, where two agents, the leader and follower, engage in sequential turn-based interactions. At the core of this approach is a learned diffeomorphism that maps the joint action space to a smooth spherical Riemannian manifold, referred to as the Stackelberg manifold. This mapping, facilitated by neural normalizing flows, ensures the formation of tractable isoplanar subspaces, enabling efficient techniques for online learning. Leveraging the linearity of the agents' reward functions on the Stackelberg manifold, our construct allows the application of linear bandit algorithms. We then provide a rigorous theoretical basis for regret minimization on the learned manifold and establish bounds on the simple regret for learning Stackelberg equilibrium. This integration of manifold learning into game theory uncovers a previously unrecognized potential for neural normalizing flows as an effective tool for multi-agent learning. We present empirical results demonstrating the effectiveness of our approach compared to standard baselines, with applications spanning domains such as cybersecurity and economic supply chain optimization.

Ehsan Mokhtarian, Sina Akbari, Fateme Jamshidi et al.

We study the problem of learning a Bayesian network (BN) of a set of variables when structural side information about the system is available. It is well known that learning the structure of a general BN is both computationally and statistically challenging. However, often in many applications, side information about the underlying structure can potentially reduce the learning complexity. In this paper, we develop a recursive constraint-based algorithm that efficiently incorporates such knowledge (i.e., side information) into the learning process. In particular, we study two types of structural side information about the underlying BN: (I) an upper bound on its clique number is known, or (II) it is diamond-free. We provide theoretical guarantees for the learning algorithms, including the worst-case number of tests required in each scenario. As a consequence of our work, we show that bounded treewidth BNs can be learned with polynomial complexity. Furthermore, we evaluate the performance and the scalability of our algorithms in both synthetic and real-world structures and show that they outperform the state-of-the-art structure learning algorithms.

Ehsan Mokhtarian, Fateme Jamshidi, Jalal Etesami et al.

We study the problem of causal effect identification from observational distribution given the causal graph and some context-specific independence (CSI) relations. It was recently shown that this problem is NP-hard, and while a sound algorithm to learn the causal effects is proposed in Tikka et al. (2019), no complete algorithm for the task exists. In this work, we propose a sound and complete algorithm for the setting when the CSI relations are limited to observed nodes with no parents in the causal graph. One limitation of the state of the art in terms of its applicability is that the CSI relations among all variables, even unobserved ones, must be given (as opposed to learned). Instead, We introduce a set of graphical constraints under which the CSI relations can be learned from mere observational distribution. This expands the set of identifiable causal effects beyond the state of the art.

Jalal Etesami, Christoph-Nikolas Straehle

Multi-agent learning is a challenging problem in machine learning that has applications in different domains such as distributed control, robotics, and economics. We develop a prescriptive model of multi-agent behavior using Markov games. Since in many multi-agent systems, agents do not necessary select their optimum strategies against other agents (e.g., multi-pedestrian interaction), we focus on models in which the agents play "exploration but near optimum strategies". We model such policies using the Boltzmann-Gibbs distribution. This leads to a set of coupled Bellman equations that describes the behavior of the agents. We introduce a set of conditions under which the set of equations admit a unique solution and propose two algorithms that provably provide the solution in finite and infinite time horizon scenarios. We also study a practical setting in which the interactions can be described using the occupancy measures and propose a simplified Markov game with less complexity. Furthermore, we establish the connection between the Markov games with exploration strategies and the principle of maximum causal entropy for multi-agent systems. Finally, we evaluate the performance of our algorithms via several well-known games from the literature and some games that are designed based on real world applications.

Jalal Etesami, Philipp Geiger

Learning from demonstrations (LfD) is an efficient paradigm to train AI agents. But major issues arise when there are differences between (a) the demonstrator's own sensory input, (b) our sensors that observe the demonstrator and (c) the sensory input of the agent we train. In this paper, we propose a causal model-based framework for transfer learning under such "sensor-shifts", for two common LfD tasks: (1) inferring the effect of the demonstrator's actions and (2) imitation learning. First we rigorously analyze, on the population-level, to what extent the relevant underlying mechanisms (the action effects and the demonstrator policy) can be identified and transferred from the available observations together with prior knowledge of sensor characteristics. And we device an algorithm to infer these mechanisms. Then we introduce several proxy methods which are easier to calculate, estimate from finite data and interpret than the exact solutions, alongside theoretical bounds on their closeness to the exact ones. We validate our two main methods on simulated and semi-real world data.

Huang Xiao, Michael Herman, Joerg Wagner et al.

Imitation Learning describes the problem of recovering an expert policy from demonstrations. While inverse reinforcement learning approaches are known to be very sample-efficient in terms of expert demonstrations, they usually require problem-dependent reward functions or a (task-)specific reward-function regularization. In this paper, we show a natural connection between inverse reinforcement learning approaches and Optimal Transport, that enables more general reward functions with desirable properties (e.g., smoothness). Based on our observation, we propose a novel approach called Wasserstein Adversarial Imitation Learning. Our approach considers the Kantorovich potentials as a reward function and further leverages regularized optimal transport to enable large-scale applications. In several robotic experiments, our approach outperforms the baselines in terms of average cumulative rewards and shows a significant improvement in sample-efficiency, by requiring just one expert demonstration.

Yingxiang Yang, Jalal Etesami, Niao He et al.

In this paper, we design a nonparametric online algorithm for estimating the triggering functions of multivariate Hawkes processes. Unlike parametric estimation, where evolutionary dynamics can be exploited for fast computation of the gradient, and unlike typical function learning, where representer theorem is readily applicable upon proper regularization of the objective function, nonparametric estimation faces the challenges of (i) inefficient evaluation of the gradient, (ii) lack of representer theorem, and (iii) computationally expensive projection necessary to guarantee positivity of the triggering functions. In this paper, we offer solutions to the above challenges, and design an online estimation algorithm named NPOLE-MHP that outputs estimations with a $\mathcal{O}(1/T)$ regret, and a $\mathcal{O}(1/T)$ stability. Furthermore, we design an algorithm, NPOLE-MMHP, for estimation of multivariate marked Hawkes processes. We test the performance of NPOLE-MHP on various synthetic and real datasets, and demonstrate, under different evaluation metrics, that NPOLE-MHP performs as good as the optimal maximum likelihood estimation (MLE), while having a run time as little as parametric online algorithms.

Jalal Etesami, Kun Zhang, Negar Kiyavash

Measuring conditional dependencies among the variables of a network is of great interest to many disciplines. This paper studies some shortcomings of the existing dependency measures in detecting direct causal influences or their lack of ability for group selection to capture strong dependencies and accordingly introduces a new statistical dependency measure to overcome them. This measure is inspired by Dobrushin's coefficients and based on the fact that there is no dependency between $X$ and $Y$ given another variable $Z$, if and only if the conditional distribution of $Y$ given $X=x$ and $Z=z$ does not change when $X$ takes another realization $x'$ while $Z$ takes the same realization $z$. We show the advantages of this measure over the related measures in the literature. Moreover, we establish the connection between our measure and the integral probability metric (IPM) that helps to develop estimators of the measure with lower complexity compared to other relevant information theoretic based measures. Finally, we show the performance of this measure through numerical simulations.

Saber Salehkaleybar, Jalal Etesami, Negar Kiyavash et al.

We study the problem of learning the support of transition matrix between random processes in a Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model from samples when a subset of the processes are latent. It is well known that ignoring the effect of the latent processes may lead to very different estimates of the influences among observed processes, and we are concerned with identifying the influences among the observed processes, those between the latent ones, and those from the latent to the observed ones. We show that the support of transition matrix among the observed processes and lengths of all latent paths between any two observed processes can be identified successfully under some conditions on the VAR model. From the lengths of latent paths, we reconstruct the latent subgraph (representing the influences among the latent processes) with a minimum number of variables uniquely if its topology is a directed tree. Furthermore, we propose an algorithm that finds all possible minimal latent graphs under some conditions on the lengths of latent paths. Our results apply to both non-Gaussian and Gaussian cases, and experimental results on various synthetic and real-world datasets validate our theoretical results.

Saber Salehkaleybar, Jalal Etesami, Negar Kiyavash

We propose an approach for learning the causal structure in stochastic dynamical systems with a $1$-step functional dependency in the presence of latent variables. We propose an information-theoretic approach that allows us to recover the causal relations among the observed variables as long as the latent variables evolve without exogenous noise. We further propose an efficient learning method based on linear regression for the special sub-case when the dynamics are restricted to be linear. We validate the performance of our approach via numerical simulations.

Jalal Etesami, Negar Kiyavash

This paper proposes a novel, non-linear collusion attack on digital fingerprinting systems. The attack is proposed for fingerprinting systems with finite alphabet but can be extended to continuous alphabet. We analyze the error probability of the attack for some classes of proposed random and deterministic schemes and obtain a bound on the number of colluders necessary to correctly estimate the host signal. That is, it requires fewer number of colluders to defeat the fingerprinting scheme. Our simulation results show that our attack is more powerful in practice than predicted by the theoretical bound.

Jalal Etesami, Negar Kiyavash, Kun Zhang et al.

Learning the influence structure of multiple time series data is of great interest to many disciplines. This paper studies the problem of recovering the causal structure in network of multivariate linear Hawkes processes. In such processes, the occurrence of an event in one process affects the probability of occurrence of new events in some other processes. Thus, a natural notion of causality exists between such processes captured by the support of the excitation matrix. We show that the resulting causal influence network is equivalent to the Directed Information graph (DIG) of the processes, which encodes the causal factorization of the joint distribution of the processes. Furthermore, we present an algorithm for learning the support of excitation matrix (or equivalently the DIG). The performance of the algorithm is evaluated on synthesized multivariate Hawkes networks as well as a stock market and MemeTracker real-world dataset.

Yingxiang Yang, Jalal Etesami, Negar Kiyavash

This paper addresses the problem of neighborhood selection for Gaussian graphical models. We present two heuristic algorithms: a forward-backward greedy algorithm for general Gaussian graphical models based on mutual information test, and a threshold-based algorithm for walk summable Gaussian graphical models. Both algorithms are shown to be structurally consistent, and efficient. Numerical results show that both algorithms work very well.