Negar Kiyavash

Saeed Masiha, Saber Salehkaleybar, Niao He et al.

We study the performance of Stochastic Cubic Regularized Newton (SCRN) on a class of functions satisfying gradient dominance property with $1\leα\le2$ which holds in a wide range of applications in machine learning and signal processing. This condition ensures that any first-order stationary point is a global optimum. We prove that the total sample complexity of SCRN in achieving $ε$-global optimum is $\mathcal{O}(ε^{-7/(2α)+1})$ for $1\leα< 3/2$ and $\mathcal{\tilde{O}}(ε^{-2/(α)})$ for $3/2\leα\le 2$. SCRN improves the best-known sample complexity of stochastic gradient descent. Even under a weak version of gradient dominance property, which is applicable to policy-based reinforcement learning (RL), SCRN achieves the same improvement over stochastic policy gradient methods. Additionally, we show that the average sample complexity of SCRN can be reduced to ${\mathcal{O}}(ε^{-2})$ for $α=1$ using a variance reduction method with time-varying batch sizes. Experimental results in various RL settings showcase the remarkable performance of SCRN compared to first-order methods.

Saber Salehkaleybar, Sadegh Khorasani, Negar Kiyavash et al.

Variance-reduced gradient estimators for policy gradient methods have been one of the main focus of research in the reinforcement learning in recent years as they allow acceleration of the estimation process. We propose a variance-reduced policy-gradient method, called SHARP, which incorporates second-order information into stochastic gradient descent (SGD) using momentum with a time-varying learning rate. SHARP algorithm is parameter-free, achieving $ε$-approximate first-order stationary point with $O(ε^{-3})$ number of trajectories, while using a batch size of $O(1)$ at each iteration. Unlike most previous work, our proposed algorithm does not require importance sampling which can compromise the advantage of variance reduction process. Moreover, the variance of estimation error decays with the fast rate of $O(1/t^{2/3})$ where $t$ is the number of iterations. Our extensive experimental evaluations show the effectiveness of the proposed algorithm on various control tasks and its advantage over the state of the art in practice.

Yuqin Yang, AmirEmad Ghassami, Mohamed Nafea et al.

We focus on causal discovery in the presence of measurement error in linear systems where the mixing matrix, i.e., the matrix indicating the independent exogenous noise terms pertaining to the observed variables, is identified up to permutation and scaling of the columns. We demonstrate a somewhat surprising connection between this problem and causal discovery in the presence of unobserved parentless causes, in the sense that there is a mapping, given by the mixing matrix, between the underlying models to be inferred in these problems. Consequently, any identifiability result based on the mixing matrix for one model translates to an identifiability result for the other model. We characterize to what extent the causal models can be identified under a two-part faithfulness assumption. Under only the first part of the assumption (corresponding to the conventional definition of faithfulness), the structure can be learned up to the causal ordering among an ordered grouping of the variables but not all the edges across the groups can be identified. We further show that if both parts of the faithfulness assumption are imposed, the structure can be learned up to a more refined ordered grouping. As a result of this refinement, for the latent variable model with unobserved parentless causes, the structure can be identified. Based on our theoretical results, we propose causal structure learning methods for both models, and evaluate their performance on synthetic data.

Yaroslav Kivva, Ehsan Mokhtarian, Jalal Etesami et al.

We revisit the problem of general identifiability originally introduced in [Lee et al., 2019] for causal inference and note that it is necessary to add positivity assumption of observational distribution to the original definition of the problem. We show that without such an assumption the rules of do-calculus and consequently the proposed algorithm in [Lee et al., 2019] are not sound. Moreover, adding the assumption will cause the completeness proof in [Lee et al., 2019] to fail. Under positivity assumption, we present a new algorithm that is provably both sound and complete. A nice property of this new algorithm is that it establishes a connection between general identifiability and classical identifiability by Pearl [1995] through decomposing the general identifiability problem into a series of classical identifiability sub-problems.

Saeed Masiha, Saber Salehkaleybar, Niao He et al.

We study the local convergence rate of stochastic first-order methods under a local $α$-Polyak-Lojasiewicz ($α$-PL) condition in a neighborhood of a target connected component $\mathcal{M}$ of the local minimizer set. The parameter $α\in [1,2]$ is the exponent of the gradient norm in the $α$-PL inequality: $α=2$ recovers the classical PL case, $α=1$ corresponds to Holder-type error bounds, and intermediate values interpolate between these regimes. Our performance criterion is the number of oracle queries required to output $\hat{x}$ with $F(\hat{x})-l \le \varepsilon$, where $l := F(y)$ for any $y \in \mathcal{M}$. We work in a local regime where the algorithm is initialized near $\mathcal{M}$ and, with high probability, its iterates remain in that neighborhood. We establish a lower bound $Ω(\varepsilon^{-2/α})$ for all stochastic first-order methods in this regime, and we obtain a matching upper bound $\mathcal{O}(\varepsilon^{-2/α})$ for $1 \le α< 2$ via a SARAH-type variance-reduced method with time-varying batch sizes and step sizes. In the convex setting, assuming a local $α$-PL condition on the $\varepsilon$-sublevel set, we further show a complexity lower bound $\widetildeΩ(\varepsilon^{-2/α})$ for reaching an $\varepsilon$-global optimum, matching the $\varepsilon$-dependence of known accelerated stochastic subgradient methods.

Mikhail Konobeev, Jalal Etesami, Negar Kiyavash

We study the causal bandit problem when the causal graph is unknown and develop an efficient algorithm for finding the parent node of the reward node using atomic interventions. We derive the exact equation for the expected number of interventions performed by the algorithm and show that under certain graphical conditions it could perform either logarithmically fast or, under more general assumptions, slower but still sublinearly in the number of variables. We formally show that our algorithm is optimal as it meets the universal lower bound we establish for any algorithm that performs atomic interventions. Finally, we extend our algorithm to the case when the reward node has multiple parents. Using this algorithm together with a standard algorithm from bandit literature leads to improved regret bounds.

Ehsan Mokhtarian, Mohammadsadegh Khorasani, Jalal Etesami et al.

We propose ordering-based approaches for learning the maximal ancestral graph (MAG) of a structural equation model (SEM) up to its Markov equivalence class (MEC) in the presence of unobserved variables. Existing ordering-based methods in the literature recover a graph through learning a causal order (c-order). We advocate for a novel order called removable order (r-order) as they are advantageous over c-orders for structure learning. This is because r-orders are the minimizers of an appropriately defined optimization problem that could be either solved exactly (using a reinforcement learning approach) or approximately (using a hill-climbing search). Moreover, the r-orders (unlike c-orders) are invariant among all the graphs in a MEC and include c-orders as a subset. Given that set of r-orders is often significantly larger than the set of c-orders, it is easier for the optimization problem to find an r-order instead of a c-order. We evaluate the performance and the scalability of our proposed approaches on both real-world and randomly generated networks.

Fateme Jamshidi, Sina Akbari, Negar Kiyavash

Drawbacks of ignoring the causal mechanisms when performing imitation learning have recently been acknowledged. Several approaches both to assess the feasibility of imitation and to circumvent causal confounding and causal misspecifications have been proposed in the literature. However, the potential benefits of the incorporation of additional information about the underlying causal structure are left unexplored. An example of such overlooked information is context-specific independence (CSI), i.e., independence that holds only in certain contexts. We consider the problem of causal imitation learning when CSI relations are known. We prove that the decision problem pertaining to the feasibility of imitation in this setting is NP-hard. Further, we provide a necessary graphical criterion for imitation learning under CSI and show that under a structural assumption, this criterion is also sufficient. Finally, we propose a sound algorithmic approach for causal imitation learning which takes both CSI relations and data into account.

Sina Akbari, Fateme Jamshidi, Ehsan Mokhtarian et al.

Causal identification is at the core of the causal inference literature, where complete algorithms have been proposed to identify causal queries of interest. The validity of these algorithms hinges on the restrictive assumption of having access to a correctly specified causal structure. In this work, we study the setting where a probabilistic model of the causal structure is available. Specifically, the edges in a causal graph exist with uncertainties which may, for example, represent degree of belief from domain experts. Alternatively, the uncertainty about an edge may reflect the confidence of a particular statistical test. The question that naturally arises in this setting is: Given such a probabilistic graph and a specific causal effect of interest, what is the subgraph which has the highest plausibility and for which the causal effect is identifiable? We show that answering this question reduces to solving an NP-complete combinatorial optimization problem which we call the edge ID problem. We propose efficient algorithms to approximate this problem and evaluate them against both real-world networks and randomly generated graphs.

Ehsan Mokhtarian, Saber Salehkaleybar, AmirEmad Ghassami et al.

We study experiment design for unique identification of the causal graph of a simple SCM, where the graph may contain cycles. The presence of cycles in the structure introduces major challenges for experiment design as, unlike acyclic graphs, learning the skeleton of causal graphs with cycles may not be possible from merely the observational distribution. Furthermore, intervening on a variable in such graphs does not necessarily lead to orienting all the edges incident to it. In this paper, we propose an experiment design approach that can learn both cyclic and acyclic graphs and hence, unifies the task of experiment design for both types of graphs. We provide a lower bound on the number of experiments required to guarantee the unique identification of the causal graph in the worst case, showing that the proposed approach is order-optimal in terms of the number of experiments up to an additive logarithmic term. Moreover, we extend our result to the setting where the size of each experiment is bounded by a constant. For this case, we show that our approach is optimal in terms of the size of the largest experiment required for uniquely identifying the causal graph in the worst case.

Yaroslav Kivva, Jalal Etesami, Negar Kiyavash

We address the problem of identifiability of an arbitrary conditional causal effect given both the causal graph and a set of any observational and/or interventional distributions of the form $Q[S]:=P(S|do(V\setminus S))$, where $V$ denotes the set of all observed variables and $S\subseteq V$. We call this problem conditional generalized identifiability (c-gID in short) and prove the completeness of Pearl's $do$-calculus for the c-gID problem by providing sound and complete algorithm for the c-gID problem. This work revisited the c-gID problem in Lee et al. [2020], Correa et al. [2021] by adding explicitly the positivity assumption which is crucial for identifiability. It extends the results of [Lee et al., 2019, Kivva et al., 2022] on general identifiability (gID) which studied the problem for unconditional causal effects and Shpitser and Pearl [2006b] on identifiability of conditional causal effects given merely the observational distribution $P(\mathbf{V})$ as our algorithm generalizes the algorithms proposed in [Kivva et al., 2022] and [Shpitser and Pearl, 2006b].

Sepehr Elahi, Sina Akbari, Jalal Etesami et al.

Identifying causal effects is a key problem of interest across many disciplines. The two long-standing approaches to estimate causal effects are observational and experimental (randomized) studies. Observational studies can suffer from unmeasured confounding, which may render the causal effects unidentifiable. On the other hand, direct experiments on the target variable may be too costly or even infeasible to conduct. A middle ground between these two approaches is to estimate the causal effect of interest through proxy experiments, which are conducted on variables with a lower cost to intervene on compared to the main target. Akbari et al. [2022] studied this setting and demonstrated that the problem of designing the optimal (minimum-cost) experiment for causal effect identification is NP-complete and provided a naive algorithm that may require solving exponentially many NP-hard problems as a sub-routine in the worst case. In this work, we provide a few reformulations of the problem that allow for designing significantly more efficient algorithms to solve it as witnessed by our extensive simulations. Additionally, we study the closely-related problem of designing experiments that enable us to identify a given effect through valid adjustments sets.

Osman Emre Dai, Daniel Cullina, Negar Kiyavash

Database alignment is a variant of the graph alignment problem: Given a pair of anonymized databases containing separate yet correlated features for a set of users, the problem is to identify the correspondence between the features and align the anonymized user sets based on correlation alone. This closely relates to planted matching, where given a bigraph with random weights, the goal is to identify the underlying matching that generated the given weights. We study an instance of the database alignment problem with multivariate Gaussian features and derive results that apply both for database alignment and for planted matching, demonstrating the connection between them. The performance thresholds for database alignment converge to that for planted matching when the dimensionality of the database features is \(ω(\log n)\), where \(n\) is the size of the alignment, and no individual feature is too strong. The maximum likelihood algorithms for both planted matching and database alignment take the form of a linear program and we study relaxations to better understand the significance of various constraints under various conditions and present achievability and converse bounds. Our results show that the almost-exact alignment threshold for the relaxed algorithms coincide with that of maximum likelihood, while there is a gap between the exact alignment thresholds. Our analysis and results extend to the unbalanced case where one user set is not fully covered by the alignment.

Sadegh Khorasani, Saber Salehkaleybar, Negar Kiyavash et al.

Policy gradient (PG) is widely used in reinforcement learning due to its scalability and good performance. In recent years, several variance-reduced PG methods have been proposed with a theoretical guarantee of converging to an approximate first-order stationary point (FOSP) with the sample complexity of $O(ε^{-3})$. However, FOSPs could be bad local optima or saddle points. Moreover, these algorithms often use importance sampling (IS) weights which could impair the statistical effectiveness of variance reduction. In this paper, we propose a variance-reduced second-order method that uses second-order information in the form of Hessian vector products (HVP) and converges to an approximate second-order stationary point (SOSP) with sample complexity of $\tilde{O}(ε^{-3})$. This rate improves the best-known sample complexity for achieving approximate SOSPs by a factor of $O(ε^{-0.5})$. Moreover, the proposed variance reduction technique bypasses IS weights by using HVP terms. Our experimental results show that the proposed algorithm outperforms the state of the art and is more robust to changes in random seeds.

Sina Akbari, Jalal Etesami, Negar Kiyavash

Pearl's do calculus is a complete axiomatic approach to learn the identifiable causal effects from observational data. When such an effect is not identifiable, it is necessary to perform a collection of often costly interventions in the system to learn the causal effect. In this work, we consider the problem of designing the collection of interventions with the minimum cost to identify the desired effect. First, we prove that this problem is NP-hard, and subsequently propose an algorithm that can either find the optimal solution or a logarithmic-factor approximation of it. This is done by establishing a connection between our problem and the minimum hitting set problem. Additionally, we propose several polynomial-time heuristic algorithms to tackle the computational complexity of the problem. Although these algorithms could potentially stumble on sub-optimal solutions, our simulations show that they achieve small regrets on random graphs.

Saeed Masiha, Sepehr Elahi, Negar Kiyavash et al.

We study Stackelberg (leader--follower) tuning of network parameters (tolls, capacities, incentives) in combinatorial congestion games, where selfish users choose discrete routes (or other combinatorial strategies) and settle at a congestion equilibrium. The leader minimizes a system-level objective (e.g., total travel time) evaluated at equilibrium, but this objective is typically nonsmooth because the set of used strategies can change abruptly. We propose ZO-Stackelberg, which couples a projection-free Frank--Wolfe equilibrium solver with a zeroth-order outer update, avoiding differentiation through equilibria. We prove convergence to generalized Goldstein stationary points of the true equilibrium objective, with explicit dependence on the equilibrium approximation error, and analyze subsampled oracles: if an exact minimizer is sampled with probability $κ_m$, then the Frank--Wolfe error decays as $\mathcal{O}(1/(κ_m T))$. We also propose stratified sampling as a practical way to avoid a vanishing $κ_m$ when the strategies that matter most for the Wardrop equilibrium concentrate in a few dominant combinatorial classes (e.g., short paths). Experiments on real-world networks demonstrate that our method achieves orders-of-magnitude speedups over a differentiation-based baseline while converging to follower equilibria.

Yuqin Yang, Mohamed Nafea, Negar Kiyavash et al.

The presence of unobserved common causes and the presence of measurement error are two of the most limiting challenges in the task of causal structure learning. Ignoring either of the two challenges can lead to detecting spurious causal links among variables of interest. In this paper, we study the problem of causal discovery in systems where these two challenges can be present simultaneously. We consider linear models which include four types of variables: variables that are directly observed, variables that are not directly observed but are measured with error, the corresponding measurements, and variables that are neither observed nor measured. We characterize the extent of identifiability of such model under separability condition (i.e., the matrix indicating the independent exogenous noise terms pertaining to the observed variables is identifiable) together with two versions of faithfulness assumptions and propose a notion of observational equivalence. We provide graphical characterization of the models that are equivalent and present a recovery algorithm that could return models equivalent to the ground truth.

Mohammad Shahverdikondori, Jalal Etesami, Negar Kiyavash

We study the contextual multi-armed bandit problem with a finite context space (a.k.a. subpopulations), where the learner recommends a best action for each context and is evaluated by context-weighted simple regret. Our guarantees are worst-case over the reward distributions, while remaining instance-dependent with respect to the context distribution vector $p$. Akin to experimental design problems where the population of interest is fixed but the sampled subpopulation can be controlled, we allow the learner to actively choose which context to sample from. For a known $p$, we characterize tight regret rates: passive sampling where contexts are randomly revealed achieves regret of order $\sqrt{n/T \, \lVert p \rVert_{1/2}}$, whereas active sampling with allocation $q_j \propto p_j^{2/3}$ achieves the tight rate $\sqrt{n/T} \, \lVert p \rVert_{2/3}$. The resulting improvement can be as large as $Θ(k^{1/4})$, where $k$ is the number of contexts. We further extend the analysis to budgeted active sampling, characterize the corresponding tight rate, and identify when a limited active budget suffices to recover the fully active rate. When $p$ is unknown, we propose the Explore-Explore-Then-Commit (EETC) algorithm, which optimally balances estimating the context distribution and the time to switch to active allocation, such that for large horizons, it matches the known-$p$ active rate up to constants. Experiments on synthetic and real-world data support our theoretical findings.

Fateme Jamshidi, Luca Ganassali, Negar Kiyavash

Motivated by conditional independence testing, an essential step in constraint-based causal discovery algorithms, we study the nonparametric Von Mises estimator for the entropy of multivariate distributions built on a kernel density estimator. We establish an exponential concentration inequality for this estimator. We design a test for conditional independence (CI) based on our estimator, called VM-CI, which achieves optimal parametric rates under smoothness assumptions. Leveraging the exponential concentration, we prove a tight upper bound for the overall error of VM-CI. This, in turn, allows us to characterize the sample complexity of any constraint-based causal discovery algorithm that uses VM-CI for CI tests. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first sample complexity guarantee for causal discovery for continuous variables. Furthermore, we empirically show that VM-CI outperforms other popular CI tests in terms of either time or sample complexity (or both), which translates to a better performance in structure learning as well.

Amir Mohammad Abouei, Ehsan Mokhtarian, Negar Kiyavash

Causal inference in a sub-population involves identifying the causal effect of an intervention on a specific subgroup, which is distinguished from the whole population through the influence of systematic biases in the sampling process. However, ignoring the subtleties introduced by sub-populations can either lead to erroneous inference or limit the applicability of existing methods. We introduce and advocate for a causal inference problem in sub-populations (henceforth called s-ID), in which we merely have access to observational data of the targeted sub-population (as opposed to the entire population). Existing inference problems in sub-populations operate on the premise that the given data distributions originate from the entire population, thus, cannot tackle the s-ID problem. To address this gap, we provide necessary and sufficient conditions that must hold in the causal graph for a causal effect in a sub-population to be identifiable from the observational distribution of that sub-population. Given these conditions, we present a sound and complete algorithm for the s-ID problem.

Ehsan Mokhtarian, Sepehr Elahi, Sina Akbari et al.

Causal discovery, i.e., learning the causal graph from data, is often the first step toward the identification and estimation of causal effects, a key requirement in numerous scientific domains. Causal discovery is hampered by two main challenges: limited data results in errors in statistical testing and the computational complexity of the learning task is daunting. This paper builds upon and extends four of our prior publications (Mokhtarian et al., 2021; Akbari et al., 2021; Mokhtarian et al., 2022, 2023a). These works introduced the concept of removable variables, which are the only variables that can be removed recursively for the purpose of causal discovery. Presence and identification of removable variables allow recursive approaches for causal discovery, a promising solution that helps to address the aforementioned challenges by reducing the problem size successively. This reduction not only minimizes conditioning sets in each conditional independence (CI) test, leading to fewer errors but also significantly decreases the number of required CI tests. The worst-case performances of these methods nearly match the lower bound. In this paper, we present a unified framework for the proposed algorithms, refined with additional details and enhancements for a coherent presentation. A comprehensive literature review is also included, comparing the computational complexity of our methods with existing approaches, showcasing their state-of-the-art efficiency. Another contribution of this paper is the release of RCD, a Python package that efficiently implements these algorithms. This package is designed for practitioners and researchers interested in applying these methods in practical scenarios. The package is available at github.com/ban-epfl/rcd, with comprehensive documentation provided at rcdpackage.com.

Saeed Masiha, Zebang Shen, Negar Kiyavash et al.

We study optimistic bilevel optimization when the lower-level problem has a non-isolated manifold of minimizers. In this setting, the hyper-objective may be non-differentiable because the upper-level criterion must choose among multiple lower-level solutions. Under a local Polyak--Łojasiewicz (PŁ) condition, we show that differentiability does not require the lower-level solution set to be a singleton: uniqueness of the optimistic selection is sufficient. This yields an explicit pseudoinverse-based hyper-gradient formula extending the classical singleton-minimizer result. We further characterize the regularity of the hyper-objective: non-degeneracy of the selected minimizer along the solution manifold yields local smoothness, while failure of uniqueness can create many non-differentiable points and failure of non-degeneracy can destroy all positive Hölder regularity of the hyper-gradient. Motivated by this theory, we propose HG-MS, a select-then-differentiate method combining explicit optimistic selection with efficient pseudoinverse-based hyper-gradient computation. Despite the nonconvex nature of optimistic selection over the lower-level solution manifold, we show that HG-MS converges to a stationary point of the optimistic objective with complexity governed by the intrinsic dimension of the solution manifold rather than its ambient dimension. Empirically, we test a practical variant of HG-MS for matched-budget LLM source reweighting. This variant preserves the select-then-differentiate principle and obtains the best GSM8K/MATH scores across the tested backbones, along with competitive or best MT-Bench instruction-following results.

Sadegh Khorasani, Saber Salehkaleybar, Negar Kiyavash et al.

Causal probing methods aim to test and control how internal representations influence the behavior of generative models. In causal probing, an intervention modifies hidden states so that a property takes on a different value. Most existing approaches define such interventions by training an auxiliary probe classifier, which ties the method to a specific task or model and risks misalignment with the model's predictive geometry. We propose Hidden-state Driven Margin Intervention (HDMI), a probe-free, gradient-based technique that directly steers hidden states using the model's native output. HDMI applies a margin objective that increases the probability of a target continuation while decreasing that of the source, without relying on probe classifiers. We further introduce a lookahead variant (LA-HDMI) for text editing that backpropagates through the softmax embeddings, modifying the current hidden state so that the likelihood of user-specified tokens increases in next token generations while preserving fluency. To evaluate interventions, we measure completeness (whether the targeted property changes as intended) and selectivity (whether unrelated properties are preserved), and report their harmonic mean as an overall measure of reliability. HDMI consistently achieves higher reliability than prior methods on the LGD agreement corpus and the CausalGym benchmark, across Meta-Llama-3-8B-Instruct, and Pythia-70M.

Fateme Jamshidi, Jalal Etesami, Negar Kiyavash

We study the problem of learning 'good' interventions in a stochastic environment modeled by its underlying causal graph. Good interventions refer to interventions that maximize rewards. Specifically, we consider the setting of a pre-specified budget constraint, where interventions can have non-uniform costs. We show that this problem can be formulated as maximizing the expected reward for a stochastic multi-armed bandit with side information. We propose an algorithm to minimize the cumulative regret in general causal graphs. This algorithm trades off observations and interventions based on their costs to achieve the optimal reward. This algorithm generalizes the state-of-the-art methods by allowing non-uniform costs and hidden confounders in the causal graph. Furthermore, we develop an algorithm to minimize the simple regret in the budgeted setting with non-uniform costs and also general causal graphs. We provide theoretical guarantees, including both upper and lower bounds, as well as empirical evaluations of our algorithms. Our empirical results showcase that our algorithms outperform the state of the art.

Fateme Jamshidi, Mohammad Shahverdikondori, Negar Kiyavash

We study multi-armed bandits under network interference, where each unit's reward depends on its own treatment and those of its neighbors in a given graph. This induces an exponentially large action space, making standard approaches computationally impractical. We propose a novel algorithm that uses the local graph structure to minimize regret. We derive a graph-dependent upper bound on cumulative regret that improves over prior work. Additionally, we provide the first lower bounds for bandits with arbitrary network interference, where each bound involves a distinct structural property of the graph. These bounds show that for both dense and sparse graphs, our algorithm is nearly optimal, with matching upper and lower bounds up to logarithmic factors. When the interference graph is unknown, a variant of our algorithm is Pareto optimal: no algorithm can uniformly outperform it across all instances. We complement our theoretical results with numerical experiments, showing that our approach outperforms the baseline methods.

Mohammad Shahverdikondori, Amir Mohammad Abouei, Alireza Rezaeimoghadam et al.

We introduce the problem of best arm identification (BAI) with post-action context, a new BAI problem in a stochastic multi-armed bandit environment and the fixed-confidence setting. The problem addresses the scenarios in which the learner receives a $\textit{post-action context}$ in addition to the reward after playing each action. This post-action context provides additional information that can significantly facilitate the decision process. We analyze two different types of the post-action context: (i) $\textit{non-separator}$, where the reward depends on both the action and the context, and (ii) $\textit{separator}$, where the reward depends solely on the context. For both cases, we derive instance-dependent lower bounds on the sample complexity and propose algorithms that asymptotically achieve the optimal sample complexity. For the non-separator setting, we do so by demonstrating that the Track-and-Stop algorithm can be extended to this setting. For the separator setting, we propose a novel sampling rule called $\textit{G-tracking}$, which uses the geometry of the context space to directly track the contexts rather than the actions. Finally, our empirical results showcase the advantage of our approaches compared to the state of the art.

Yuqin Yang, Saber Salehkaleybar, Negar Kiyavash

We study the problem of identifying the unknown intervention targets in structural causal models where we have access to heterogeneous data collected from multiple environments. The unknown intervention targets are the set of endogenous variables whose corresponding exogenous noises change across the environments. We propose a two-phase approach which in the first phase recovers the exogenous noises corresponding to unknown intervention targets whose distributions have changed across environments. In the second phase, the recovered noises are matched with the corresponding endogenous variables. For the recovery phase, we provide sufficient conditions for learning these exogenous noises up to some component-wise invertible transformation. For the matching phase, under the causal sufficiency assumption, we show that the proposed method uniquely identifies the intervention targets. In the presence of latent confounders, the intervention targets among the observed variables cannot be determined uniquely. We provide a candidate intervention target set which is a superset of the true intervention targets. Our approach improves upon the state of the art as the returned candidate set is always a subset of the target set returned by previous work. Moreover, we do not require restrictive assumptions such as linearity of the causal model or performing invariance tests to learn whether a distribution is changing across environments which could be highly sample inefficient. Our experimental results show the effectiveness of our proposed algorithm in practice.

Kasra Jalaldoust, Saber Salehkaleybar, Negar Kiyavash

We consider the problem of causal discovery (a.k.a., causal structure learning) in a multi-domain setting. We assume that the causal functions are invariant across the domains, while the distribution of the exogenous noise may vary. Under causal sufficiency (i.e., no confounders exist), we show that the causal diagram can be discovered under less restrictive functional assumptions compared to previous work. What enables causal discovery in this setting is bijective generation mechanisms (BGM), which ensures that the functional relation between the exogenous noise $E$ and the endogenous variable $Y$ is bijective and differentiable in both directions at every level of the cause variable $X = x$. BGM generalizes a variety of models including additive noise model, LiNGAM, post-nonlinear model, and location-scale noise model. Further, we derive a statistical test to find the parents set of the target variable. Experiments on various synthetic and real-world datasets validate our theoretical findings.

Sadegh Khorasani, Saber Salehkaleybar, Negar Kiyavash et al.

We present Dual-Feedback Actor (DFA), a reinforcement learning algorithm that fuses both individual rewards and pairwise preferences (if available) into a single update rule. DFA uses the policy's log-probabilities directly to model the preference probability, avoiding a separate reward-modeling step. Preferences can be provided by human-annotators (at state-level or trajectory-level) or be synthesized online from Q-values stored in an off-policy replay buffer. Under a Bradley-Terry model, we prove that minimizing DFA's preference loss recovers the entropy-regularized Soft Actor-Critic (SAC) policy. Our simulation results show that DFA trained on generated preferences matches or exceeds SAC on six control environments and demonstrates a more stable training process. With only a semi-synthetic preference dataset under Bradley-Terry model, our algorithm outperforms reward-modeling reinforcement learning from human feedback (RLHF) baselines in a stochastic GridWorld and approaches the performance of an oracle with true rewards.

Yaroslav Kivva, Sina Akbari, Saber Salehkaleybar et al.

We investigate the estimation of the causal effect of a treatment variable on an outcome in the presence of a latent confounder. We first show that the causal effect is identifiable under certain conditions when data is available from multiple environments, provided that the target causal effect remains invariant across these environments. Secondly, we propose a moment-based algorithm for estimating the causal effect as long as only a single parameter of the data-generating mechanism varies across environments -- whether it be the exogenous noise distribution or the causal relationship between two variables. Conversely, we prove that identifiability is lost if both exogenous noise distributions of both the latent and treatment variables vary across environments. Finally, we propose a procedure to identify which parameter of the data-generating mechanism has varied across the environments and evaluate the performance of our proposed methods through experiments on synthetic data.

Amir Mohammad Abouei, Ehsan Mokhtarian, Negar Kiyavash et al.

The s-ID problem seeks to compute a causal effect in a specific sub-population from the observational data pertaining to the same sub population (Abouei et al., 2023). This problem has been addressed when all the variables in the system are observable. In this paper, we consider an extension of the s-ID problem that allows for the presence of latent variables. To tackle the challenges induced by the presence of latent variables in a sub-population, we first extend the classical relevant graphical definitions, such as c-components and Hedges, initially defined for the so-called ID problem (Pearl, 1995; Tian & Pearl, 2002), to their new counterparts. Subsequently, we propose a sound algorithm for the s-ID problem with latent variables.

Jalal Etesami, Ali Habibnia, Negar Kiyavash

We propose a nonparametric and time-varying directed information graph (TV-DIG) framework to estimate the evolving causal structure in time series networks, thereby addressing the limitations of traditional econometric models in capturing high-dimensional, nonlinear, and time-varying interconnections among series. This framework employs an information-theoretic measure rooted in a generalized version of Granger-causality, which is applicable to both linear and nonlinear dynamics. Our framework offers advancements in measuring systemic risk and establishes meaningful connections with established econometric models, including vector autoregression and switching models. We evaluate the efficacy of our proposed model through simulation experiments and empirical analysis, reporting promising results in recovering simulated time-varying networks with nonlinear and multivariate structures. We apply this framework to identify and monitor the evolution of interconnectedness and systemic risk among major assets and industrial sectors within the financial network. We focus on cryptocurrencies' potential systemic risks to financial stability, including spillover effects on other sectors during crises like the COVID-19 pandemic and the Federal Reserve's 2020 emergency response. Our findings reveals significant, previously underrecognized pre-2020 influences of cryptocurrencies on certain financial sectors, highlighting their potential systemic risks and offering a systematic approach in tracking evolving cross-sector interactions within financial networks.

Mohammad Shahverdikondori, Ehsan Mokhtarian, Negar Kiyavash

Causal discovery is essential for understanding relationships among variables of interest in many scientific domains. In this paper, we focus on permutation-based methods for learning causal graphs in Linear Gaussian Acyclic Models (LiGAMs), where the permutation encodes a causal ordering of the variables. Existing methods in this setting are not scalable due to their high computational complexity. These methods are comprised of two main components: (i) constructing a specific DAG, $\mathcal{G}^π$, for a given permutation $π$, which represents the best structure that can be learned from the available data while adhering to $π$, and (ii) searching over the space of permutations (i.e., causal orders) to minimize the number of edges in $\mathcal{G}^π$. We introduce QWO, a novel approach that significantly enhances the efficiency of computing $\mathcal{G}^π$ for a given permutation $π$. QWO has a speed-up of $O(n^2)$ ($n$ is the number of variables) compared to the state-of-the-art BIC-based method, making it highly scalable. We show that our method is theoretically sound and can be integrated into existing search strategies such as GRASP and hill-climbing-based methods to improve their performance.

Mohammad Shahverdikondori, Jalal Etesami, Negar Kiyavash

We study regret minimization in causal bandits under causal sufficiency where the underlying causal structure is not known to the agent. Previous work has focused on identifying the reward's parents and then applying classic bandit methods to them, or jointly learning the parents while minimizing regret. We investigate whether such strategies are optimal. Somewhat counterintuitively, our results show that learning the parent set is suboptimal. We do so by proving that there exist instances where regret minimization and parent identification are fundamentally conflicting objectives. We further analyze both the known and unknown parent set size regimes, establish novel regret lower bounds that capture the combinatorial structure of the action space. Building on these insights, we propose nearly optimal algorithms that bypass graph and parent recovery, demonstrating that parent identification is indeed unnecessary for regret minimization. Experiments confirm that there exists a large performance gap between our method and existing baselines in various environments.

Ehsan Sharifian, Saber Salehkaleybar, Negar Kiyavash

We study the problem of causal structure learning from a combination of observational and interventional data generated by a linear non-Gaussian structural equation model that might contain cycles. Recent results show that using mere observational data identifies the causal graph only up to a permutation-equivalence class. We obtain a combinatorial characterization of this class by showing that each graph in an equivalence class corresponds to a perfect matching in a bipartite graph. This bipartite representation allows us to analyze how interventions modify or constrain the matchings. Specifically, we show that each atomic intervention reveals one edge of the true matching and eliminates all incompatible causal graphs. Consequently, we formalize the optimal experiment design task as an adaptive stochastic optimization problem over the set of equivalence classes with a natural reward function that quantifies how many graphs are eliminated from the equivalence class by an intervention. We show that this reward function is adaptive submodular and provide a greedy policy with a provable near-optimal performance guarantee. A key technical challenge is to efficiently estimate the reward function without having to explicitly enumerate all the graphs in the equivalence class. We propose a sampling-based estimator using random matchings and analyze its bias and concentration behavior. Our simulation results show that performing a small number of interventions guided by our stochastic optimization framework recovers the true underlying causal structure.

Sadegh Khorasani, Saber Salehkaleybar, Negar Kiyavash et al.

Hierarchical reinforcement learning (HRL) improves the efficiency of long-horizon reinforcement-learning tasks with sparse rewards by decomposing the task into a hierarchy of subgoals. The main challenge of HRL is efficient discovery of the hierarchical structure among subgoals and utilizing this structure to achieve the final goal. We address this challenge by modeling the subgoal structure as a causal graph and propose a causal discovery algorithm to learn it. Additionally, rather than intervening on the subgoals at random during exploration, we harness the discovered causal model to prioritize subgoal interventions based on their importance in attaining the final goal. These targeted interventions result in a significantly more efficient policy in terms of the training cost. Unlike previous work on causal HRL, which lacked theoretical analysis, we provide a formal analysis of the problem. Specifically, for tree structures and, for a variant of Erdős-Rényi random graphs, our approach results in remarkable improvements. Our experimental results on HRL tasks also illustrate that our proposed framework outperforms existing work in terms of training cost.

Daniele Tramontano, Yaroslav Kivva, Saber Salehkaleybar et al.

This paper investigates causal effect identification in latent variable Linear Non-Gaussian Acyclic Models (lvLiNGAM) using higher-order cumulants, addressing two prominent setups that are challenging in the presence of latent confounding: (1) a single proxy variable that may causally influence the treatment and (2) underspecified instrumental variable cases where fewer instruments exist than treatments. We prove that causal effects are identifiable with a single proxy or instrument and provide corresponding estimation methods. Experimental results demonstrate the accuracy and robustness of our approaches compared to existing methods, advancing the theoretical and practical understanding of causal inference in linear systems with latent confounders.

Mohammad Shahverdikondori, Mohammad Reza Badri, Negar Kiyavash

We introduce the Best Group Identification problem in a multi-objective multi-armed bandit setting, where an agent interacts with groups of arms with vector-valued rewards. The performance of a group is determined by an efficiency vector which represents the group's best attainable rewards across different dimensions. The objective is to identify the set of optimal groups in the fixed-confidence setting. We investigate two key formulations: group Pareto set identification, where efficiency vectors of optimal groups are Pareto optimal and linear best group identification, where each reward dimension has a known weight and the optimal group maximizes the weighted sum of its efficiency vector's entries. For both settings, we propose elimination-based algorithms, establish upper bounds on their sample complexity, and derive lower bounds that apply to any correct algorithm. Through numerical experiments, we demonstrate the strong empirical performance of the proposed algorithms.

Fateme Jamshidi, Sina Akbari, Negar Kiyavash

We study the problem of closeness testing for continuous distributions and its implications for causal discovery. Specifically, we analyze the sample complexity of distinguishing whether two multidimensional continuous distributions are identical or differ by at least $ε$ in terms of Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence under non-parametric assumptions. To this end, we propose an estimator of KL divergence which is based on the von Mises expansion. Our closeness test attains optimal parametric rates under smoothness assumptions. Equipped with this test, which serves as a building block of our causal discovery algorithm to identify the causal structure between two multidimensional random variables, we establish sample complexity guarantees for our causal discovery method. To the best of our knowledge, this work is the first work that provides sample complexity guarantees for distinguishing cause and effect in multidimensional non-linear models with non-Gaussian continuous variables in the presence of unobserved confounding.

Ilia Mahrooghi, Mahshad Moradi, Sina Akbari et al.

While significant progress has been made in designing algorithms that minimize regret in online decision-making, real-world scenarios often introduce additional complexities, perhaps the most challenging of which is missing outcomes. Overlooking this aspect or simply assuming random missingness invariably leads to biased estimates of the rewards and may result in linear regret. Despite the practical relevance of this challenge, no rigorous methodology currently exists for systematically handling missingness, especially when the missingness mechanism is not random. In this paper, we address this gap in the context of multi-armed bandits (MAB) with missing outcomes by analyzing the impact of different missingness mechanisms on achievable regret bounds. We introduce algorithms that account for missingness under both missing at random (MAR) and missing not at random (MNAR) models. Through both analytical and simulation studies, we demonstrate the drastic improvements in decision-making by accounting for missingness in these settings.

Daniele Tramontano, Yaroslav Kivva, Saber Salehkaleybar et al.

We study the generic identifiability of causal effects in linear non-Gaussian acyclic models (LiNGAM) with latent variables. We consider the problem in two main settings: When the causal graph is known a priori, and when it is unknown. In both settings, we provide a complete graphical characterization of the identifiable direct or total causal effects among observed variables. Moreover, we propose efficient algorithms to certify the graphical conditions. Finally, we propose an adaptation of the reconstruction independent component analysis (RICA) algorithm that estimates the causal effects from the observational data given the causal graph. Experimental results show the effectiveness of the proposed method in estimating the causal effects.

Sina Akbari, Luca Ganassali, Negar Kiyavash

We study the problem of causal structure learning from data using optimal transport (OT). Specifically, we first provide a constraint-based method which builds upon lower-triangular monotone parametric transport maps to design conditional independence tests which are agnostic to the noise distribution. We provide an algorithm for causal discovery up to Markov Equivalence with no assumptions on the structural equations/noise distributions, which allows for settings with latent variables. Our approach also extends to score-based causal discovery by providing a novel means for defining scores. This allows us to uniquely recover the causal graph under additional identifiability and structural assumptions, such as additive noise or post-nonlinear models. We provide experimental results to compare the proposed approach with the state of the art on both synthetic and real-world datasets.

Ehsan Mokhtarian, Sina Akbari, Fateme Jamshidi et al.

We study the problem of learning a Bayesian network (BN) of a set of variables when structural side information about the system is available. It is well known that learning the structure of a general BN is both computationally and statistically challenging. However, often in many applications, side information about the underlying structure can potentially reduce the learning complexity. In this paper, we develop a recursive constraint-based algorithm that efficiently incorporates such knowledge (i.e., side information) into the learning process. In particular, we study two types of structural side information about the underlying BN: (I) an upper bound on its clique number is known, or (II) it is diamond-free. We provide theoretical guarantees for the learning algorithms, including the worst-case number of tests required in each scenario. As a consequence of our work, we show that bounded treewidth BNs can be learned with polynomial complexity. Furthermore, we evaluate the performance and the scalability of our algorithms in both synthetic and real-world structures and show that they outperform the state-of-the-art structure learning algorithms.

Yuqin Yang, Mohamed Nafea, AmirEmad Ghassami et al.

Linear structural causal models (SCMs) -- in which each observed variable is generated by a subset of the other observed variables as well as a subset of the exogenous sources -- are pervasive in causal inference and casual discovery. However, for the task of causal discovery, existing work almost exclusively focus on the submodel where each observed variable is associated with a distinct source with non-zero variance. This results in the restriction that no observed variable can deterministically depend on other observed variables or latent confounders. In this paper, we extend the results on structure learning by focusing on a subclass of linear SCMs which do not have this property, i.e., models in which observed variables can be causally affected by any subset of the sources, and are allowed to be a deterministic function of other observed variables or latent confounders. This allows for a more realistic modeling of influence or information propagation in systems. We focus on the task of causal discovery form observational data generated from a member of this subclass. We derive a set of necessary and sufficient conditions for unique identifiability of the causal structure. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first work that gives identifiability results for causal discovery under both latent confounding and deterministic relationships. Further, we propose an algorithm for recovering the underlying causal structure when the aforementioned conditions are satisfied. We validate our theoretical results both on synthetic and real datasets.

Ehsan Mokhtarian, Fateme Jamshidi, Jalal Etesami et al.

We study the problem of causal effect identification from observational distribution given the causal graph and some context-specific independence (CSI) relations. It was recently shown that this problem is NP-hard, and while a sound algorithm to learn the causal effects is proposed in Tikka et al. (2019), no complete algorithm for the task exists. In this work, we propose a sound and complete algorithm for the setting when the CSI relations are limited to observed nodes with no parents in the causal graph. One limitation of the state of the art in terms of its applicability is that the CSI relations among all variables, even unobserved ones, must be given (as opposed to learned). Instead, We introduce a set of graphical constraints under which the CSI relations can be learned from mere observational distribution. This expands the set of identifiable causal effects beyond the state of the art.

Sina Akbari, Ehsan Mokhtarian, AmirEmad Ghassami et al.

We consider the problem of learning the causal MAG of a system from observational data in the presence of latent variables and selection bias. Constraint-based methods are one of the main approaches for solving this problem, but the existing methods are either computationally impractical when dealing with large graphs or lacking completeness guarantees. We propose a novel computationally efficient recursive constraint-based method that is sound and complete. The key idea of our approach is that at each iteration a specific type of variable is identified and removed. This allows us to learn the structure efficiently and recursively, as this technique reduces both the number of required conditional independence (CI) tests and the size of the conditioning sets. The former substantially reduces the computational complexity, while the latter results in more reliable CI tests. We provide an upper bound on the number of required CI tests in the worst case. To the best of our knowledge, this is the tightest bound in the literature. We further provide a lower bound on the number of CI tests required by any constraint-based method. The upper bound of our proposed approach and the lower bound at most differ by a factor equal to the number of variables in the worst case. We provide experimental results to compare the proposed approach with the state of the art on both synthetic and real-world structures.

Sajad Khodadadian, Mohamed Nafea, AmirEmad Ghassami et al.

Machine learning algorithms are increasingly used for consequential decision making regarding individuals based on their relevant features. Features that are relevant for accurate decisions may however lead to either explicit or implicit forms of discrimination against unprivileged groups, such as those of certain race or gender. This happens due to existing biases in the training data, which are often replicated or even exacerbated by the learning algorithm. Identifying and measuring these biases at the data level is a challenging problem due to the interdependence among the features, and the decision outcome. In this work, we develop a framework for fairness-aware feature selection which takes into account the correlation among the features and the decision outcome, and is based on information theoretic measures for the accuracy and discriminatory impacts of features. In particular, we first propose information theoretic measures which quantify the impact of different subsets of features on the accuracy and discrimination of the decision outcomes. We then deduce the marginal impact of each feature using Shapley value function; a solution concept in cooperative game theory used to estimate marginal contributions of players in a coalitional game. Finally, we design a fairness utility score for each feature (for feature selection) which quantifies how this feature influences accurate as well as nondiscriminatory decisions. Our framework depends on the joint statistics of the data rather than a particular classifier design. We examine our proposed framework on real and synthetic data to evaluate its performance.

Siqi Zhang, Junchi Yang, Cristóbal Guzmán et al.

This paper studies the complexity for finding approximate stationary points of nonconvex-strongly-concave (NC-SC) smooth minimax problems, in both general and averaged smooth finite-sum settings. We establish nontrivial lower complexity bounds of $Ω(\sqrtκΔLε^{-2})$ and $Ω(n+\sqrt{nκ}ΔLε^{-2})$ for the two settings, respectively, where $κ$ is the condition number, $L$ is the smoothness constant, and $Δ$ is the initial gap. Our result reveals substantial gaps between these limits and best-known upper bounds in the literature. To close these gaps, we introduce a generic acceleration scheme that deploys existing gradient-based methods to solve a sequence of crafted strongly-convex-strongly-concave subproblems. In the general setting, the complexity of our proposed algorithm nearly matches the lower bound; in particular, it removes an additional poly-logarithmic dependence on accuracy present in previous works. In the averaged smooth finite-sum setting, our proposed algorithm improves over previous algorithms by providing a nearly-tight dependence on the condition number.

Sajad Khodadadian, AmirEmad Ghassami, Negar Kiyavash

We study the impact of pre and post processing for reducing discrimination in data-driven decision makers. We first analyze the fundamental trade-off between fairness and accuracy in a pre-processing approach, and propose a design for a pre-processing module based on a convex optimization program, which can be added before the original classifier. This leads to a fundamental lower bound on attainable discrimination, given any acceptable distortion in the outcome. Furthermore, we reformulate an existing post-processing method in terms of our accuracy and fairness measures, which allows comparing post-processing and pre-processing approaches. We show that under some mild conditions, pre-processing outperforms post-processing. Finally, we show that by appropriate choice of the discrimination measure, the optimization problem for both pre and post processing approaches will reduce to a linear program and hence can be solved efficiently.

Ehsan Mokhtarian, Sina Akbari, AmirEmad Ghassami et al.

Constraint-based methods are one of the main approaches for causal structure learning that are particularly valued as they are asymptotically guaranteed to find a structure that is Markov equivalent to the causal graph of the system. On the other hand, they may require an exponentially large number of conditional independence (CI) tests in the number of variables of the system. In this paper, we propose a novel recursive constraint-based method for causal structure learning that significantly reduces the required number of CI tests compared to the existing literature. The idea of the proposed approach is to use Markov boundary information to identify a specific variable that can be removed from the set of variables without affecting the statistical dependencies among the other variables. Having identified such a variable, we discover its neighborhood, remove that variable from the set of variables, and recursively learn the causal structure over the remaining variables. We further provide a lower bound on the number of CI tests required by any constraint-based method. Comparing this lower bound to our achievable bound demonstrates the efficiency of the proposed approach. Our experimental results show that the proposed algorithm outperforms state-of-the-art both on synthetic and real-world structures.