Yuhan Chen

Jianyou Wang, Youze Zheng, Longtian Bao et al.

Scientists have long sought to accurately predict outcomes of real-world events before they happen. Can AI systems do so more reliably? We study this question through clinical trial outcome prediction, a high-stakes open challenge even for domain experts. We introduce CT Open, an open-access, live platform that will run four challenge every year. Anyone can submit predictions for each challenge. CT Open evaluates those submissions on trials whose outcomes were not yet public at the time of submission but were made public afterwards. Determining if a trial's outcome is public on the internet before a certain date is surprisingly difficult. Outcomes posted on official registries may lag behind by years, while the first mention may appear in obscure articles. To address this, we propose a novel, fully automated decontamination pipeline that uses iterative LLM-powered web search to identify the earliest mention of trial outcomes. We validate the pipeline's quality and accuracy by human expert's annotations. Since CT Open's pipeline ensures that every evaluated trial had no publicly reported outcome when the prediction was made, it allows participants to use any methodology and any data source. In this paper, we release a training set and two time-stamped test benchmarks, Winter 2025 and Summer 2025. We believe CT Open can serve as a central hub for advancing AI research on forecasting real-world outcomes before they occur, while also informing biomedical research and improving clinical trial design. CT Open Platform is hosted at $\href{https://ct-open.net/}{https://ct-open.net/}$

Bowen Ding, Yuhan Chen, Futing Wang et al.

Large Reasoning Models (LRMs) excel at solving complex problems but face an overthinking dilemma. When handling simple tasks, they often produce verbose responses overloaded with thinking tokens (e.g., wait, however). These tokens trigger unnecessary high-level reasoning behaviors like reflection and backtracking, reducing efficiency. In this work, our pilot study reveals that these thinking-token-induced behaviors are not essential for effective problem-solving and may even hinder correct reasoning within constrained token budgets. We identify this phenomenon as the thinking trap. To mitigate this issue, we propose Dual Policy Preference Optimization (DuP-PO), a novel algorithm featuring: (1) A rollout sampling strategy that guarantees balanced exposure to responses with and without thinking tokens; (2) A fine-grained advantage control technique to dynamically regulate the prediction of target tokens; (3) A policy shaping method ensuring stable gradient contributions from thinking tokens. Experimental results on five popular math reasoning benchmarks show that DuP-PO performs well on the popular LRM, which significantly improves their token efficiency during reasoning, while achieving superior performance of the base model.