Lei Han

W. Zhang, H. Liu, P. Li et al.

The goal of convective storm nowcasting is local prediction of severe and imminent convective storms. Here, we consider the convective storm nowcasting problem from the perspective of machine learning. First, we use a pixel-wise sampling method to construct spatiotemporal features for nowcasting, and flexibly adjust the proportions of positive and negative samples in the training set to mitigate class-imbalance issues. Second, we employ a concise two-stream convolutional neural network to extract spatial and temporal cues for nowcasting. This simplifies the network structure, reduces the training time requirement, and improves classification accuracy. The two-stream network used both radar and satellite data. In the resulting two-stream, fused convolutional neural network, some of the parameters are entered into a single-stream convolutional neural network, but it can learn the features of many data. Further, considering the relevance of classification and regression tasks, we develop a multi-task learning strategy that predicts the labels used in such tasks. We integrate two-stream multi-task learning into a single convolutional neural network. Given the compact architecture, this network is more efficient and easier to optimize than existing recurrent neural networks.

Wei Zhang, Lei Han, Juanzhen Sun et al.

Convective storm nowcasting has attracted substantial attention in various fields. Existing methods under a deep learning framework rely primarily on radar data. Although they perform nowcast storm advection well, it is still challenging to nowcast storm initiation and growth, due to the limitations of the radar observations. This paper describes the first attempt to nowcast storm initiation, growth, and advection simultaneously under a deep learning framework using multi-source meteorological data. To this end, we present a multi-channel 3D-cube successive convolution network (3D-SCN). As real-time re-analysis meteorological data can now provide valuable atmospheric boundary layer thermal dynamic information, which is essential to predict storm initiation and growth, both raw 3D radar and re-analysis data are used directly without any handcraft feature engineering. These data are formulated as multi-channel 3D cubes, to be fed into our network, which are convolved by cross-channel 3D convolutions. By stacking successive convolutional layers without pooling, we build an end-to-end trainable model for nowcasting. Experimental results show that deep learning methods achieve better performance than traditional extrapolation methods. The qualitative analyses of 3D-SCN show encouraging results of nowcasting of storm initiation, growth, and advection.

Lei Han, Juanzhen Sun, Wei Zhang et al.

Despite marked progress over the past several decades, convective storm nowcasting remains a challenge because most nowcasting systems are based on linear extrapolation of radar reflectivity without much consideration for other meteorological fields. The variational Doppler radar analysis system (VDRAS) is an advanced convective-scale analysis system capable of providing analysis of 3-D wind, temperature, and humidity by assimilating Doppler radar observations. Although potentially useful, it is still an open question as to how to use these fields to improve nowcasting. In this study, we present results from our first attempt at developing a Support Vector Machine (SVM) Box-based nOWcasting (SBOW) method under the machine learning framework using VDRAS analysis data. The key design points of SBOW are as follows: 1) The study domain is divided into many position-fixed small boxes and the nowcasting problem is transformed into one question, i.e., will a radar echo > 35 dBZ appear in a box in 30 minutes? 2) Box-based temporal and spatial features, which include time trends and surrounding environmental information, are elaborately constructed, and 3) The box-based constructed features are used to first train the SVM classifier, and then the trained classifier is used to make predictions. Compared with complicated and expensive expert systems, the above design of SBOW allows the system to be small, compact, straightforward, and easy to maintain and expand at low cost. The experimental results show that, although no complicated tracking algorithm is used, SBOW can predict the storm movement trend and storm growth with reasonable skill.