Gabriel Jarry

Gabriel Jarry, Ramon Dalmau, Xavier Olive et al.

Accurate aircraft trajectory prediction is critical for air traffic management, airline operations, and environmental assessment. This paper introduces NODE-FDM, a Neural Ordinary Differential Equations-based Flight Dynamics Model trained on Quick Access Recorder (QAR) data. By combining analytical kinematic relations with data-driven components, NODE-FDM achieves a more accurate reproduction of recorded trajectories than state-of-the-art models such as a BADA-based trajectory generation methodology (BADA4 performance model combined with trajectory control routines), particularly in the descent phase of the flight. The analysis demonstrates marked improvements across altitude, speed, and mass dynamics. Despite current limitations, including limited physical constraints and the limited availability of QAR data, the results demonstrate the potential of physics-informed neural ordinary differential equations as a high-fidelity, data-driven approach to aircraft performance modelling. Future work will extend the framework to incorporate a full modelling of the lateral dynamics of the aircraft.

Gabriel Jarry, Ramon Dalmau, Philippe Very et al.

Accurate modelling of aircraft fuel-flow is crucial for both operational planning and environmental impact assessment, yet standard parametric models often neglect performance deterioration that occurs as aircraft age. This paper investigates multiple approaches to integrate engine ageing effects into fuel-flow prediction for the Airbus A320-214, using a comprehensive dataset of approximately nineteen thousand Quick Access Recorder flights from nine distinct airframes with varying years in service. We systematically evaluate classical physics-based models, empirical correction coefficients, and data-driven neural network architectures that incorporate age either as an input feature or as an explicit multiplicative bias. Results demonstrate that while baseline models consistently underestimate fuel consumption for older aircraft, the use of age-dependent correction factors and neural models substantially reduces bias and improves prediction accuracy. Nevertheless, limitations arise from the small number of airframes and the lack of detailed maintenance event records, which constrain the representativeness and generalization of age-based corrections. This study emphasizes the importance of accounting for the effects of ageing in parametric and machine learning frameworks to improve the reliability of operational and environmental assessments. The study also highlights the need for more diverse datasets that can capture the complexity of real-world engine deterioration.

Gabriel Jarry, Ramon Dalmau, Philippe Very et al.

Aviation's climate impact includes not only CO2 emissions but also significant non-CO2 effects, especially from contrails. These ice clouds can alter Earth's radiative balance, potentially rivaling the warming effect of aviation CO2. Physics-based models provide useful estimates of contrail formation and climate impact, but their accuracy depends heavily on the quality of atmospheric input data and on assumptions used to represent complex processes like ice particle formation and humidity-driven persistence. Observational data from remote sensors, such as satellites and ground cameras, could be used to validate and calibrate these models. However, existing datasets don't explore all aspect of contrail dynamics and formation: they typically lack temporal tracking, and do not attribute contrails to their source flights. To address these limitations, we present the Ground Visible Camera Contrail Sequences (GVCCS), a new open data set of contrails recorded with a ground-based all-sky camera in the visible range. Each contrail is individually labeled and tracked over time, allowing a detailed analysis of its lifecycle. The dataset contains 122 video sequences (24,228 frames) and includes flight identifiers for contrails that form above the camera. As reference, we also propose a unified deep learning framework for contrail analysis using a panoptic segmentation model that performs semantic segmentation (contrail pixel identification), instance segmentation (individual contrail separation), and temporal tracking in a single architecture. By providing high-quality, temporally resolved annotations and a benchmark for model evaluation, our work supports improved contrail monitoring and will facilitate better calibration of physical models. This sets the groundwork for more accurate climate impact understanding and assessments.

Ramon Dalmau, Gabriel Jarry, Philippe Very

Aviation's non-CO2 effects, particularly contrails, are a significant contributor to its climate impact. Persistent contrails can evolve into cirrus-like clouds that trap outgoing infrared radiation, with radiative forcing potentially comparable to or exceeding that of aviation's CO2 emissions. While physical models simulate contrail formation, evolution and dissipation, validating and calibrating these models requires linking observed contrails to the flights that generated them, a process known as contrail-to-flight attribution. Satellite-based attribution is challenging due to limited spatial and temporal resolution, as contrails often drift and deform before detection. In this paper, we evaluate an alternative approach using ground-based cameras, which capture contrails shortly after formation at high spatial and temporal resolution, when they remain thin, linear, and visually distinct. Leveraging the ground visible camera contrail sequences (GVCCS) dataset, we introduce a modular framework for attributing contrails observed using ground-based cameras to theoretical contrails derived from aircraft surveillance and meteorological data. The framework accommodates multiple geometric representations and distance metrics, incorporates temporal smoothing, and enables flexible probability-based assignment strategies. This work establishes a strong baseline and provides a modular framework for future research in linking contrails to their source flight.