Elliot Jones

Elliot Jones, Toshiko Matsui, William Knottenbelt

Stablecoins serve as the fundamental infrastructure for Decentralised Finance (DeFi), acting as the primary bridge between fiat currencies and the digital asset ecosystem. While peg stability is well-documented, the structural role stablecoins play in transmitting systemic risk to the broader market remains under-explored. This study uses copula-based approaches to quantify the transmission of volatility and activity from stablecoin to cryptocurrency markets. We demonstrate in-sample causality across daily, weekly, and monthly horizons. Furthermore, we show that incorporating stablecoin factors significantly reduces Mean Squared Error in cryptocurrency forecasting. Specifically, we link stablecoin volume and upside volatility to broader market volatility, indicating its role as dry powder. Finally, we establish economic value by demonstrating reduced risk in a cryptocurrency volatility targeting model when stablecoin factors are employed.

Aidan Peppin, Anka Reuel, Stephen Casper et al.

To accurately and confidently answer the question 'could an AI model or system increase biorisk', it is necessary to have both a sound theoretical threat model for how AI models or systems could increase biorisk and a robust method for testing that threat model. This paper provides an analysis of existing available research surrounding two AI and biorisk threat models: 1) access to information and planning via large language models (LLMs), and 2) the use of AI-enabled biological tools (BTs) in synthesizing novel biological artifacts. We find that existing studies around AI-related biorisk are nascent, often speculative in nature, or limited in terms of their methodological maturity and transparency. The available literature suggests that current LLMs and BTs do not pose an immediate risk, and more work is needed to develop rigorous approaches to understanding how future models could increase biorisks. We end with recommendations about how empirical work can be expanded to more precisely target biorisk and ensure rigor and validity of findings.

Elliot Jones, William Knottenbelt

Consensus protocols are crucial for a blockchain system as they are what allow agreement between the system's nodes in a potentially adversarial environment. For this reason, it is paramount to ensure their correct design and implementation to prevent such adversaries from carrying out malicious behaviour. Formal verification allows us to ensure the correctness of such protocols, but requires high levels of effort and expertise to carry out and thus is often omitted in the development process. In this paper, we present IsabeLLM, a tool that integrates the proof assistant Isabelle with a Large Language Model to assist and automate proofs. We demonstrate the effectiveness of IsabeLLM by using it to develop a novel model of Bitcoin's Proof of Work consensus protocol and verify its correctness. We use the DeepSeek R1 API for this demonstration and found that we were able to generate correct proofs for each of the non-trivial lemmas present in the verification.