Joanna Abraham

Dingwen Li, Bing Xue, Christopher King et al.

Major postoperative complications are devastating to surgical patients. Some of these complications are potentially preventable via early predictions based on intraoperative data. However, intraoperative data comprise long and fine-grained multivariate time series, prohibiting the effective learning of accurate models. The large gaps associated with clinical events and protocols are usually ignored. Moreover, deep models generally lack transparency. Nevertheless, the interpretability is crucial to assist clinicians in planning for and delivering postoperative care and timely interventions. Towards this end, we propose a hierarchical model combining the strength of both attention and recurrent models for intraoperative time series. We further develop an explanation module for the hierarchical model to interpret the predictions by providing contributions of intraoperative data in a fine-grained manner. Experiments on a large dataset of 111,888 surgeries with multiple outcomes and an external high-resolution ICU dataset show that our model can achieve strong predictive performance (i.e., high accuracy) and offer robust interpretations (i.e., high transparency) for predicted outcomes based on intraoperative time series.

Charles Alba, Bing Xue, Joanna Abraham et al.

Clinical notes recorded during a patient's perioperative journey holds immense informational value. Advances in large language models (LLMs) offer opportunities for bridging this gap. Using 84,875 pre-operative notes and its associated surgical cases from 2018 to 2021, we examine the performance of LLMs in predicting six postoperative risks using various fine-tuning strategies. Pretrained LLMs outperformed traditional word embeddings by an absolute AUROC of 38.3% and AUPRC of 33.2%. Self-supervised fine-tuning further improved performance by 3.2% and 1.5%. Incorporating labels into training further increased AUROC by 1.8% and AUPRC by 2%. The highest performance was achieved with a unified foundation model, with improvements of 3.6% for AUROC and 2.6% for AUPRC compared to self-supervision, highlighting the foundational capabilities of LLMs in predicting postoperative risks, which could be potentially beneficial when deployed for perioperative care

Junbo Shen, Bing Xue, Thomas Kannampallil et al.

Early detection of surgical complications allows for timely therapy and proactive risk mitigation. Machine learning (ML) can be leveraged to identify and predict patient risks for postoperative complications. We developed and validated the effectiveness of predicting postoperative complications using a novel surgical Variational Autoencoder (surgVAE) that uncovers intrinsic patterns via cross-task and cross-cohort presentation learning. This retrospective cohort study used data from the electronic health records of adult surgical patients over four years (2018 - 2021). Six key postoperative complications for cardiac surgery were assessed: acute kidney injury, atrial fibrillation, cardiac arrest, deep vein thrombosis or pulmonary embolism, blood transfusion, and other intraoperative cardiac events. We compared prediction performances of surgVAE against widely-used ML models and advanced representation learning and generative models under 5-fold cross-validation. 89,246 surgeries (49% male, median (IQR) age: 57 (45-69)) were included, with 6,502 in the targeted cardiac surgery cohort (61% male, median (IQR) age: 60 (53-70)). surgVAE demonstrated superior performance over existing ML solutions across all postoperative complications of cardiac surgery patients, achieving macro-averaged AUPRC of 0.409 and macro-averaged AUROC of 0.831, which were 3.4% and 3.7% higher, respectively, than the best alternative method (by AUPRC scores). Model interpretation using Integrated Gradients highlighted key risk factors based on preoperative variable importance. surgVAE showed excellent discriminatory performance for predicting postoperative complications and addressing the challenges of data complexity, small cohort sizes, and low-frequency positive events. surgVAE enables data-driven predictions of patient risks and prognosis while enhancing the interpretability of patient risk profiles.