Nisar Ahmed

Shohei Wakayama, Nisar Ahmed

In autonomous robotic decision-making under uncertainty, the tradeoff between exploitation and exploration of available options must be considered. If secondary information associated with options can be utilized, such decision-making problems can often be formulated as contextual multi-armed bandits (CMABs). In this study, we apply active inference, which has been actively studied in the field of neuroscience in recent years, as an alternative action selection strategy for CMABs. Unlike conventional action selection strategies, it is possible to rigorously evaluate the uncertainty of each option when calculating the expected free energy (EFE) associated with the decision agent's probabilistic model, as derived from the free-energy principle. We specifically address the case where a categorical observation likelihood function is used, such that EFE values are analytically intractable. We introduce new approximation methods for computing the EFE based on variational and Laplace approximations. Extensive simulation study results demonstrate that, compared to other strategies, active inference generally requires far fewer iterations to identify optimal options and generally achieves superior cumulative regret, for relatively low extra computational cost.

Brett W. Israelsen, Nisar Ahmed

We summarize our efforts to date in developing a framework for generating succinct human-understandable competency self-assessments in terms of machine self confidence, i.e. a robot's self-trust in its functional abilities to accomplish assigned tasks. Whereas early work explored machine self-confidence in ad hoc ways for niche applications, our Factorized Machine Self-Confidence framework introduces and combines several aspects of probabilistic meta reasoning for algorithmic planning and decision-making under uncertainty to arrive at a novel set of generalizable self-confidence factors, which can support competency assessment for a wide variety of problems.

Aastha Acharya, Rebecca Russell, Nisar R. Ahmed

For autonomous agents to act as trustworthy partners to human users, they must be able to reliably communicate their competency for the tasks they are asked to perform. Towards this objective, we develop probabilistic world models based on deep generative modelling that allow for the simulation of agent trajectories and accurate calculation of tasking outcome probabilities. By combining the strengths of conditional variational autoencoders with recurrent neural networks, the deep generative world model can probabilistically forecast trajectories over long horizons to task completion. We show how these forecasted trajectories can be used to calculate outcome probability distributions, which enable the precise assessment of agent competency for specific tasks and initial settings.

Jiho Lee, Nisar R. Ahmed, Rebecca Russell

Kalman filtering performance is highly sensitive to model mismatch and noise covariance tuning. Learning-based approaches address these limitations but typically rely on supervised training with large datasets and do not produce consistent uncertainty estimates. In this paper, we propose a self-supervised Hybrid Adaptive Kalman Filter that learns structured corrections to system dynamics and process noise covariance from measurements alone while preserving the probabilistic structure of the filter. This allows the innovation likelihood to be computed and subsequently used for model classification via generalized Bayesian inference. Experimental results on real-world and simulated datasets demonstrate improved estimation accuracy and statistical consistency as well as robust classification performance across both low-data and large-data scenarios.

Brett W. Israelsen, Nisar R. Ahmed, Matthew Aitken et al.

How can intelligent machines assess their competency to complete a task? This question has come into focus for autonomous systems that algorithmically make decisions under uncertainty. We argue that machine self-confidence -- a form of meta-reasoning based on self-assessments of system knowledge about the state of the world, itself, and ability to reason about and execute tasks -- leads to many computable and useful competency indicators for such agents. This paper presents our body of work, so far, on this concept in the form of the Factorized Machine Self-confidence (FaMSeC) framework, which holistically considers several major factors driving competency in algorithmic decision-making: outcome assessment, solver quality, model quality, alignment quality, and past experience. In FaMSeC, self-confidence indicators are derived via 'problem-solving statistics' embedded in Markov decision process solvers and related approaches. These statistics come from evaluating probabilistic exceedance margins in relation to certain outcomes and associated competency standards specified by an evaluator. Once designed, and evaluated, the statistics can be easily incorporated into autonomous agents and serve as indicators of competency. We include detailed descriptions and examples for Markov decision process agents, and show how outcome assessment and solver quality factors can be found for a range of tasking contexts through novel use of meta-utility functions, behavior simulations, and surrogate prediction models. Numerical evaluations are performed to demonstrate that FaMSeC indicators perform as desired (references to human subject studies beyond the scope of this paper are provided).

Christopher Funk, Ofer Dagan, Benjamin Noack et al.

A key challenge in Bayesian decentralized data fusion is the `rumor propagation' or `double counting' phenomenon, where previously sent data circulates back to its sender. It is often addressed by approximate methods like covariance intersection (CI) which takes a weighted average of the estimates to compute the bound. The problem is that this bound is not tight, i.e. the estimate is often over-conservative. In this paper, we show that by exploiting the probabilistic independence structure in multi-agent decentralized fusion problems a tighter bound can be found using (i) an expansion to the CI algorithm that uses multiple (non-monolithic) weighting factors instead of one (monolithic) factor in the original CI and (ii) a general optimization scheme that is able to compute optimal bounds and fully exploit an arbitrary dependency structure. We compare our methods and show that on a simple problem, they converge to the same solution. We then test our new non-monolithic CI algorithm on a large-scale target tracking simulation and show that it achieves a tighter bound and a more accurate estimate compared to the original monolithic CI.

Aastha Acharya, Rebecca Russell, Nisar R. Ahmed

For safe and reliable deployment in the real world, autonomous agents must elicit appropriate levels of trust from human users. One method to build trust is to have agents assess and communicate their own competencies for performing given tasks. Competency depends on the uncertainties affecting the agent, making accurate uncertainty quantification vital for competency assessment. In this work, we show how ensembles of deep generative models can be used to quantify the agent's aleatoric and epistemic uncertainties when forecasting task outcomes as part of competency assessment.

Aastha Acharya, Rebecca Russell, Nisar R. Ahmed

Giving autonomous agents the ability to forecast their own outcomes and uncertainty will allow them to communicate their competencies and be used more safely. We accomplish this by using a learned world model of the agent system to forecast full agent trajectories over long time horizons. Real world systems involve significant sources of both aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty that compound and interact over time in the trajectory forecasts. We develop a deep generative world model that quantifies aleatoric uncertainty while incorporating the effects of epistemic uncertainty during the learning process. We show on two reinforcement learning problems that our uncertainty model produces calibrated outcome uncertainty estimates over the full trajectory horizon.

Jiho Lee, Nisar R. Ahmed, Kyle H. Wray et al.

Partially Observable Markov Decision Processes (POMDPs) provide a structured framework for decision-making under uncertainty, but their application requires efficient belief updates. Sequential Importance Resampling Particle Filters (SIRPF), also known as Bootstrap Particle Filters, are commonly used as belief updaters in large approximate POMDP solvers, but they face challenges such as particle deprivation and high computational costs as the system's state dimension grows. To address these issues, this study introduces Rao-Blackwellized POMDP (RB-POMDP) approximate solvers and outlines generic methods to apply Rao-Blackwellization in both belief updates and online planning. We compare the performance of SIRPF and Rao-Blackwellized Particle Filters (RBPF) in a simulated localization problem where an agent navigates toward a target in a GPS-denied environment using POMCPOW and RB-POMCPOW planners. Our results not only confirm that RBPFs maintain accurate belief approximations over time with fewer particles, but, more surprisingly, RBPFs combined with quadrature-based integration improve planning quality significantly compared to SIRPF-based planning under the same computational limits.

Nicholas Conlon, Aastha Acharya, Nisar Ahmed

Modern civilian and military systems have created a demand for sophisticated intelligent autonomous machines capable of operating in uncertain dynamic environments. Such systems are realizable thanks in large part to major advances in perception and decision-making techniques, which in turn have been propelled forward by modern machine learning tools. However, these newer forms of intelligent autonomy raise questions about when/how communication of the operational intent and assessments of actual vs. supposed capabilities of autonomous agents impact overall performance. This symposium examines the possibilities for enabling intelligent autonomous systems to self-assess and communicate their ability to effectively execute assigned tasks, as well as reason about the overall limits of their competencies and maintain operability within those limits. The symposium brings together researchers working in this burgeoning area of research to share lessons learned, identify major theoretical and practical challenges encountered so far, and potential avenues for future research and real-world applications.

Shohei Wakayama, Nisar Ahmed

We introduce a new variant of contextual multi-armed bandits (CMABs) called observation-augmented CMABs (OA-CMABs) wherein a robot uses extra outcome observations from an external information source, e.g. humans. In OA-CMABs, external observations are a function of context features and thus provide evidence on top of observed option outcomes to infer hidden parameters. However, if external data is error-prone, measures must be taken to preserve the correctness of inference. To this end, we derive a robust Bayesian inference process for OA-CMABs based on recently developed probabilistic semantic data association techniques, which handle complex mixture model parameter priors and hybrid discrete-continuous observation likelihoods for semantic external data sources. To cope with combined uncertainties in OA-CMABs, we also derive a new active inference algorithm for optimal option selection based on approximate expected free energy minimization. This generalizes prior work on CMAB active inference by accounting for faulty observations and non-Gaussian distributions. Results for a simulated deep space search site selection problem show that, even if incorrect semantic observations are provided externally, e.g. by scientists, efficient decision-making and robust parameter inference are still achieved in a wide variety of conditions.

Nisar Ahmed, Luke Burks, Kailah Cabral et al.

We consider the problem of evaluating dynamic consistency in discrete time probabilistic filters that approximate stochastic system state densities with Gaussian mixtures. Dynamic consistency means that the estimated probability distributions correctly describe the actual uncertainties. As such, the problem of consistency testing naturally arises in applications with regards to estimator tuning and validation. However, due to the general complexity of the density functions involved, straightforward approaches for consistency testing of mixture-based estimators have remained challenging to define and implement. This paper derives a new exact result for Gaussian mixture consistency testing within the framework of normalized deviation squared (NDS) statistics. It is shown that NDS test statistics for generic multivariate Gaussian mixture models exactly follow mixtures of generalized chi-square distributions, for which efficient computational tools are available. The accuracy and utility of the resulting consistency tests are numerically demonstrated on static and dynamic mixture estimation examples.

Peter Amorese, Shohei Wakayama, Nisar Ahmed et al.

When a robot autonomously performs a complex task, it frequently must balance competing objectives while maintaining safety. This becomes more difficult in uncertain environments with stochastic outcomes. Enhancing transparency in the robot's behavior and aligning with user preferences are also crucial. This paper introduces a novel framework for multi-objective reinforcement learning that ensures safe task execution, optimizes trade-offs between objectives, and adheres to user preferences. The framework has two main layers: a multi-objective task planner and a high-level selector. The planning layer generates a set of optimal trade-off plans that guarantee satisfaction of a temporal logic task. The selector uses active inference to decide which generated plan best complies with user preferences and aids learning. Operating iteratively, the framework updates a parameterized learning model based on collected data. Case studies and benchmarks on both manipulation and mobile robots show that our framework outperforms other methods and (i) learns multiple optimal trade-offs, (ii) adheres to a user preference, and (iii) allows the user to adjust the balance between (i) and (ii).

Nisar Ahmed, Hafiz Muhammad Shahzad Asif, Hassan Khalid

Digital images contain a lot of redundancies, therefore, compressions are applied to reduce the image size without the loss of reasonable image quality. The same become more prominent in the case of videos that contains image sequences and higher compression ratios are achieved in low throughput networks. Assessment of the quality of images in such scenarios becomes of particular interest. Subjective evaluation in most of the scenarios becomes infeasible so objective evaluation is preferred. Among the three objective quality measures, full-reference and reduced-reference methods require an original image in some form to calculate the quality score which is not feasible in scenarios such as broadcasting or IP video. Therefore, a non-reference quality metric is proposed to assess the quality of digital images which calculates luminance and multiscale gradient statistics along with mean subtracted contrast normalized products as features to train a Feedforward Neural Network with Scaled Conjugate Gradient. The trained network has provided good regression and R2 measures and further testing on LIVE Image Quality Assessment database release-2 has shown promising results. Pearson, Kendall, and Spearman's correlation are calculated between predicted and actual quality scores and their results are comparable to the state-of-the-art systems. Moreover, the proposed metric is computationally faster than its counterparts and can be used for the quality assessment of image sequences.

Gulshan Saleem, Nisar Ahmed, Usman Qamar

The main focus of information retrieval methods is to provide accurate and efficient results which are cost-effective too. LINGO (Label Induction Grouping Algorithm) is a clustering algorithm that aims to provide search results in form of quality clusters but also has a few limitations. In this paper, our focus is based on achieving results that are more meaningful and improving the overall performance of the algorithm. LINGO works on two main steps; Cluster Label Induction by using Latent Semantic Indexing technique (LSI) and Cluster content discovery by using the Vector Space Model (VSM). As LINGO uses VSM in cluster content discovery, our task is to replace VSM with LSI for cluster content discovery and to analyze the feasibility of using LSI with Okapi BM25. The next task is to compare the results of a modified method with the LINGO original method. The research is applied to five different text-based data sets to get more reliable results for every method. Research results show that LINGO produces 40-50% better results when using LSI for content Discovery. From theoretical evidence using Okapi BM25 for scoring method in LSI (LSI+Okapi BM25) for cluster content discovery instead of VSM, also results in better clusters generation in terms of scalability and performance when compares to both VSM and LSI's Results.

Luke Burks, Hunter M. Ray, Jamison McGinley et al.

Autonomous robots can benefit greatly from human-provided semantic characterizations of uncertain task environments and states. However, the development of integrated strategies which let robots model, communicate, and act on such 'soft data' remains challenging. Here, the Human Assisted Robotic Planning and Sensing (HARPS) framework is presented for active semantic sensing and planning in human-robot teams to address these gaps by formally combining the benefits of online sampling-based POMDP policies, multimodal semantic interaction, and Bayesian data fusion. This approach lets humans opportunistically impose model structure and extend the range of semantic soft data in uncertain environments by sketching and labeling arbitrary landmarks across the environment. Dynamic updating of the environment model while during search allows robotic agents to actively query humans for novel and relevant semantic data, thereby improving beliefs of unknown environments and states for improved online planning. Simulations of a UAV-enabled target search application in a large-scale partially structured environment show significant improvements in time and belief state estimates required for interception versus conventional planning based solely on robotic sensing. Human subject studies in the same environment (n = 36) demonstrate an average doubling in dynamic target capture rate compared to the lone robot case, and highlight the robustness of active probabilistic reasoning and semantic sensing over a range of user characteristics and interaction modalities.

Shohei Wakayama, Nisar Ahmed

Humans cannot always be treated as oracles for collaborative sensing. Robots thus need to maintain beliefs over unknown world states when receiving semantic data from humans, as well as account for possible discrepancies between human-provided data and these beliefs. To this end, this paper introduces the problem of semantic data association (SDA) in relation to conventional data association problems for sensor fusion. It then develops a novel probabilistic semantic data association (PSDA) algorithm to rigorously address SDA in general settings, unlike previous work on semantic data fusion which developed heuristic techniques for specific settings. PSDA is further incorporated into a recursive hybrid Bayesian data fusion scheme which uses Gaussian mixture priors for object states and softmax functions for semantic human sensor data likelihoods. Simulations of a multi-object search task show that PSDA enables robust collaborative state estimation under a wide range of conditions where semantic human sensor data can be erroneous or contain significant reference ambiguities.

Ofer Dagan, Nisar R. Ahmed

This paper explores the use of factor graphs as an inference and analysis tool for Bayesian peer-to-peer decentralized data fusion. We propose a framework by which agents can each use local factor graphs to represent relevant partitions of a complex global joint probability distribution, thus allowing them to avoid reasoning over the entirety of a more complex model and saving communication as well as computation cost. This allows heterogeneous multi-robot systems to cooperate on a variety of real world, task oriented missions, where scalability and modularity are key. To develop the initial theory and analyze the limits of this approach, we focus our attention on static linear Gaussian systems in tree-structured networks and use Channel Filters (also represented by factor graphs) to explicitly track common information. We discuss how this representation can be used to describe various multi-robot applications and to design and analyze new heterogeneous data fusion algorithms. We validate our method in simulations of a multi-agent multi-target tracking and cooperative multi-agent mapping problems, and discuss the computation and communication gains of this approach.

Ofer Dagan, Nisar R. Ahmed

In Bayesian peer-to-peer decentralized data fusion, the underlying distributions held locally by autonomous agents are frequently assumed to be over the same set of variables (homogeneous). This requires each agent to process and communicate the full global joint distribution, and thus leads to high computation and communication costs irrespective of relevancy to specific local objectives. This work formulates and studies heterogeneous decentralized fusion problems, defined as the set of problems in which either the communicated or the processed distributions describe different, but overlapping, random states of interest that are subsets of a larger full global joint state. We exploit the conditional independence structure of such problems and provide a rigorous derivation of novel exact and approximate conditionally factorized heterogeneous fusion rules. We further develop a new version of the homogeneous Channel Filter algorithm to enable conservative heterogeneous fusion for smoothing and filtering scenarios in dynamic problems. Numerical examples show more than $99.5\%$ potential communication reduction for heterogeneous channel filter fusion, and a multi-target tracking simulation shows that these methods provide consistent estimates while remaining computationally scalable.

Aastha Acharya, Rebecca Russell, Nisar R. Ahmed

The deployment of reinforcement learning (RL) in the real world comes with challenges in calibrating user trust and expectations. As a step toward developing RL systems that are able to communicate their competencies, we present a method of generating human-interpretable abstract behavior models that identify the experiential conditions leading to different task execution strategies and outcomes. Our approach consists of extracting experiential features from state representations, abstracting strategy descriptors from trajectories, and training an interpretable decision tree that identifies the conditions most predictive of different RL behaviors. We demonstrate our method on trajectory data generated from interactions with the environment and on imagined trajectory data that comes from a trained probabilistic world model in a model-based RL setting.

Michael L. Iuzzolino, Tetsumichi Umada, Nisar R. Ahmed et al.

We investigate how different active learning (AL) query policies coupled with classification uncertainty visualizations affect analyst trust in automated classification systems. A current standard policy for AL is to query the oracle (e.g., the analyst) to refine labels for datapoints where the classifier has the highest uncertainty. This is an optimal policy for the automation system as it yields maximal information gain. However, model-centric policies neglect the effects of this uncertainty on the human component of the system and the consequent manner in which the human will interact with the system post-training. In this paper, we present an empirical study evaluating how AL query policies and visualizations lending transparency to classification influence trust in automated classification of image data. We found that query policy significantly influences an analyst's trust in an image classification system, and we use these results to propose a set of oracle query policies and visualizations for use during AL training phases that can influence analyst trust in classification.

Zhaozhong Chen, Nisar Ahmed, Simon Julier et al.

Many state estimation algorithms must be tuned given the state space process and observation models, the process and observation noise parameters must be chosen. Conventional tuning approaches rely on heuristic hand-tuning or gradient-based optimization techniques to minimize a performance cost function. However, the relationship between tuned noise values and estimator performance is highly nonlinear and stochastic. Therefore, the tuning solutions can easily get trapped in local minima, which can lead to poor choices of noise parameters and suboptimal estimator performance. This paper describes how Bayesian Optimization (BO) can overcome these issues. BO poses optimization as a Bayesian search problem for a stochastic ``black box'' cost function, where the goal is to search the solution space to maximize the probability of improving the current best solution. As such, BO offers a principled approach to optimization-based estimator tuning in the presence of local minima and performance stochasticity. While extended Kalman filters (EKFs) are the main focus of this work, BO can be similarly used to tune other related state space filters. The method presented here uses performance metrics derived from normalized innovation squared (NIS) filter residuals obtained via sensor data, which renders knowledge of ground-truth states unnecessary. The robustness, accuracy, and reliability of BO-based tuning is illustrated on practical nonlinear state estimation problems,losed-loop aero-robotic control.

Nisar R. Ahmed

This work examines the problem of using finite Gaussian mixtures (GM) probability density functions in recursive Bayesian peer-to-peer decentralized data fusion (DDF). It is shown that algorithms for both exact and approximate GM DDF lead to the same problem of finding a suitable GM approximation to a posterior fusion pdf resulting from the division of a `naive Bayes' fusion GM (representing direct combination of possibly dependent information sources) by another non-Gaussian pdf (representing removal of either the actual or estimated `common information' between the information sources). The resulting quotient pdf for general GM fusion is naturally a mixture pdf, although the fused mixands are non-Gaussian and are not analytically tractable for recursive Bayesian updates. Parallelizable importance sampling algorithms for both direct local approximation and indirect global approximation of the quotient mixture are developed to find tractable GM approximations to the non-Gaussian `sum of quotients' mixtures. Practical application examples for multi-platform static target search and maneuverable range-based target tracking demonstrate the higher fidelity of the resulting approximations compared to existing GM DDF techniques, as well as their favorable computational features.

Steve McGuire, Christoffer Heckman, Daniel Szafir et al.

Determining extrinsic calibration parameters is a necessity in any robotic system composed of actuators and cameras. Once a system is outside the lab environment, parameters must be determined without relying on outside artifacts such as calibration targets. We propose a method that relies on structured motion of an observed arm to recover extrinsic calibration parameters. Our method combines known arm kinematics with observations of conics in the image plane to calculate maximum-likelihood estimates for calibration extrinsics. This method is validated in simulation and tested against a real-world model, yielding results consistent with ruler-based estimates. Our method shows promise for estimating the pose of a camera relative to an articulated arm's end effector without requiring tedious measurements or external artifacts. Index Terms: robotics, hand-eye problem, self-calibration, structure from motion

Brett W Israelsen, Nisar R Ahmed, Eric Frew et al.

Algorithmic assurances from advanced autonomous systems assist human users in understanding, trusting, and using such systems appropriately. Designing these systems with the capacity of assessing their own capabilities is one approach to creating an algorithmic assurance. The idea of `machine self-confidence' is introduced for autonomous systems. Using a factorization based framework for self-confidence assessment, one component of self-confidence, called `solver-quality', is discussed in the context of Markov decision processes for autonomous systems. Markov decision processes underlie much of the theory of reinforcement learning, and are commonly used for planning and decision making under uncertainty in robotics and autonomous systems. A `solver quality' metric is formally defined in the context of decision making algorithms based on Markov decision processes. A method for assessing solver quality is then derived, drawing inspiration from empirical hardness models. Finally, numerical experiments for an unmanned autonomous vehicle navigation problem under different solver, parameter, and environment conditions indicate that the self-confidence metric exhibits the desired properties. Discussion of results, and avenues for future investigation are included.

Zhaozhong Chen, Christoffer Heckman, Simon Julier et al.

Kalman filters are routinely used for many data fusion applications including navigation, tracking, and simultaneous localization and mapping problems. However, significant time and effort is frequently required to tune various Kalman filter model parameters, e.g. process noise covariance, pre-whitening filter models for non-white noise, etc. Conventional optimization techniques for tuning can get stuck in poor local minima and can be expensive to implement with real sensor data. To address these issues, a new "black box" Bayesian optimization strategy is developed for automatically tuning Kalman filters. In this approach, performance is characterized by one of two stochastic objective functions: normalized estimation error squared (NEES) when ground truth state models are available, or the normalized innovation error squared (NIS) when only sensor data is available. By intelligently sampling the parameter space to both learn and exploit a nonparametric Gaussian process surrogate function for the NEES/NIS costs, Bayesian optimization can efficiently identify multiple local minima and provide uncertainty quantification on its results.

Luke Burks, Ian Loefgren, Nisar Ahmed

This work develops novel strategies for optimal planning with semantic observations using continuous state partially observable markov decision processes (CPOMDPs). Two major innovations are presented in relation to Gaussian mixture (GM) CPOMDP policy approximation methods. While existing methods have many desirable theoretical properties, they are unable to efficiently represent and reason over hybrid continuous-discrete probabilistic models. The first major innovation is the derivation of closed-form variational Bayes GM approximations of Point-Based Value Iteration Bellman policy backups, using softmax models of continuous-discrete semantic observation probabilities. A key benefit of this approach is that dynamic decision-making tasks can be performed with complex non-Gaussian uncertainties, while also exploiting continuous dynamic state space models (thus avoiding cumbersome and costly discretization). The second major innovation is a new clustering-based technique for mixture condensation that scales well to very large GM policy functions and belief functions. Simulation results for a target search and interception task with semantic observations show that the GM policies resulting from these innovations are more effective than those produced by other state of the art policy approximations, but require significantly less modeling overhead and online runtime cost. Additional results show the robustness of this approach to model errors and scaling to higher dimensions.

Luke Burks, Ian Loefgren, Luke Barbier et al.

In search applications, autonomous unmanned vehicles must be able to efficiently reacquire and localize mobile targets that can remain out of view for long periods of time in large spaces. As such, all available information sources must be actively leveraged -- including imprecise but readily available semantic observations provided by humans. To achieve this, this work develops and validates a novel collaborative human-machine sensing solution for dynamic target search. Our approach uses continuous partially observable Markov decision process (CPOMDP) planning to generate vehicle trajectories that optimally exploit imperfect detection data from onboard sensors, as well as semantic natural language observations that can be specifically requested from human sensors. The key innovation is a scalable hierarchical Gaussian mixture model formulation for efficiently solving CPOMDPs with semantic observations in continuous dynamic state spaces. The approach is demonstrated and validated with a real human-robot team engaged in dynamic indoor target search and capture scenarios on a custom testbed.

Michael Ouimet, David Iglesias, Nisar Ahmed et al.

This paper describes a novel communication-spare cooperative localization algorithm for a team of mobile unmanned robotic vehicles. Exploiting an event-based estimation paradigm, robots only send measurements to neighbors when the expected innovation for state estimation is high. Since agents know the event-triggering condition for measurements to be sent, the lack of a measurement is thus also informative and fused into state estimates. The robots use a Covariance Intersection (CI) mechanism to occasionally synchronize their local estimates of the full network state. In addition, heuristic balancing dynamics on the robots' CI-triggering thresholds ensure that, in large diameter networks, the local error covariances remains below desired bounds across the network. Simulations on both linear and nonlinear dynamics/measurement models show that the event-triggering approach achieves nearly optimal state estimation performance in a wide range of operating conditions, even when using only a fraction of the communication cost required by conventional full data sharing. The robustness of the proposed approach to lossy communications, as well as the relationship between network topology and CI-based synchronization requirements, are also examined.

Brett W. Israelsen, Nisar Ahmed, Kenneth Center et al.

This work studies how an AI-controlled dog-fighting agent with tunable decision-making parameters can learn to optimize performance against an intelligent adversary, as measured by a stochastic objective function evaluated on simulated combat engagements. Gaussian process Bayesian optimization (GPBO) techniques are developed to automatically learn global Gaussian Process (GP) surrogate models, which provide statistical performance predictions in both explored and unexplored areas of the parameter space. This allows a learning engine to sample full-combat simulations at parameter values that are most likely to optimize performance and also provide highly informative data points for improving future predictions. However, standard GPBO methods do not provide a reliable surrogate model for the highly volatile objective functions found in aerial combat, and thus do not reliably identify global maxima. These issues are addressed by novel Repeat Sampling (RS) and Hybrid Repeat/Multi-point Sampling (HRMS) techniques. Simulation studies show that HRMS improves the accuracy of GP surrogate models, allowing AI decision-makers to more accurately predict performance and efficiently tune parameters.

Brett W. Israelsen, Nisar Ahmed, Kenneth Center et al.

A key requirement for the current generation of artificial decision-makers is that they should adapt well to changes in unexpected situations. This paper addresses the situation in which an AI for aerial dog fighting, with tunable parameters that govern its behavior, must optimize behavior with respect to an objective function that is evaluated and learned through simulations. Bayesian optimization with a Gaussian Process surrogate is used as the method for investigating the objective function. One key benefit is that during optimization, the Gaussian Process learns a global estimate of the true objective function, with predicted outcomes and a statistical measure of confidence in areas that haven't been investigated yet. Having a model of the objective function is important for being able to understand possible outcomes in the decision space; for example this is crucial for training and providing feedback to human pilots. However, standard Bayesian optimization does not perform consistently or provide an accurate Gaussian Process surrogate function for highly volatile objective functions. We treat these problems by introducing a novel sampling technique called Hybrid Repeat/Multi-point Sampling. This technique gives the AI ability to learn optimum behaviors in a highly uncertain environment. More importantly, it not only improves the reliability of the optimization, but also creates a better model of the entire objective surface. With this improved model the agent is equipped to more accurately/efficiently predict performance in unexplored scenarios.

Brett Israelsen, Nisar Ahmed

A key drawback of the current generation of artificial decision-makers is that they do not adapt well to changes in unexpected situations. This paper addresses the situation in which an AI for aerial dog fighting, with tunable parameters that govern its behavior, will optimize behavior with respect to an objective function that must be evaluated and learned through simulations. Once this objective function has been modeled, the agent can then choose its desired behavior in different situations. Bayesian optimization with a Gaussian Process surrogate is used as the method for investigating the objective function. One key benefit is that during optimization the Gaussian Process learns a global estimate of the true objective function, with predicted outcomes and a statistical measure of confidence in areas that haven't been investigated yet. However, standard Bayesian optimization does not perform consistently or provide an accurate Gaussian Process surrogate function for highly volatile objective functions. We treat these problems by introducing a novel sampling technique called Hybrid Repeat/Multi-point Sampling. This technique gives the AI ability to learn optimum behaviors in a highly uncertain environment. More importantly, it not only improves the reliability of the optimization, but also creates a better model of the entire objective surface. With this improved model the agent is equipped to better adapt behaviors.

Kin Gwn Lore, Nicholas Sweet, Kundan Kumar et al.

Effective human-machine collaboration can significantly improve many learning and planning strategies for information gathering via fusion of 'hard' and 'soft' data originating from machine and human sensors, respectively. However, gathering the most informative data from human sensors without task overloading remains a critical technical challenge. In this context, Value of Information (VOI) is a crucial decision-theoretic metric for scheduling interaction with human sensors. We present a new Deep Learning based VOI estimation framework that can be used to schedule collaborative human-machine sensing with computationally efficient online inference and minimal policy hand-tuning. Supervised learning is used to train deep convolutional neural networks (CNNs) to extract hierarchical features from 'images' of belief spaces obtained via data fusion. These features can be associated with soft data query choices to reliably compute VOI for human interaction. The CNN framework is described in detail, and a performance comparison to a feature-based POMDP scheduling policy is provided. The practical feasibility of our method is also demonstrated on a mobile robotic search problem with language-based semantic human sensor inputs.

Nisar Ahmed, Tsung-Lin Yang, Mark Campbell

Recent advances in communications, mobile computing, and artificial intelligence have greatly expanded the application space of intelligent distributed sensor networks. This in turn motivates the development of generalized Bayesian decentralized data fusion (DDF) algorithms for robust and efficient information sharing among autonomous agents using probabilistic belief models. However, DDF is significantly challenging to implement for general real-world applications requiring the use of dynamic/ad hoc network topologies and complex belief models, such as Gaussian mixtures or hybrid Bayesian networks. To tackle these issues, we first discuss some new key mathematical insights about exact DDF and conservative approximations to DDF. These insights are then used to develop novel generalized DDF algorithms for complex beliefs based on mixture pdfs and conditional factors. Numerical examples motivated by multi-robot target search demonstrate that our methods lead to significantly better fusion results, and thus have great potential to enhance distributed intelligent reasoning in sensor networks.