Xin You

Runze Yang, Longbing Cao, Xiaoming Wu et al.

Separating multiple effects in time series is fundamental yet challenging for time-series forecasting (TSF). However, existing TSF models cannot effectively learn interpretable multi-effect decomposition by their smoothing-based temporal techniques. Here, a new interpretable frequency-based decomposition pipeline MLOW captures the insight: a time series can be represented as a magnitude spectrum multiplied by the corresponding phase-aware basis functions, and the magnitude spectrum distribution of a time series always exhibits observable patterns for different effects. MLOW learns a low-rank representation of the magnitude spectrum to capture dominant trending and seasonal effects. We explore low-rank methods, including PCA, NMF, and Semi-NMF, and find that none can simultaneously achieve interpretable, efficient and generalizable decomposition. Thus, we propose hyperplane-nonnegative matrix factorization (Hyperplane-NMF). Further, to address the frequency (spectral) leakage restricting high-quality low-rank decomposition, MLOW enables a flexible selection of input horizons and frequency levels via a mathematical mechanism. Visual analysis demonstrates that MLOW enables interpretable and hierarchical multiple-effect decomposition, robust to noises. It can also enable plug-and-play in existing TSF backbones with remarkable performance improvement but minimal architectural modifications.

Runze Yang, Longbing Cao, Xin You et al.

The integration of Fourier transform and deep learning opens new avenues for time series forecasting. We reconsider the Fourier transform from a basis functions perspective. Specifically, the real and imaginary parts of the frequency components can be regarded as the coefficients of cosine and sine basis functions at tiered frequency levels, respectively. We find that existing Fourier-based methods face inconsistent starting cycles and inconsistent series length issues. They fail to interpret frequency components precisely and overlook temporal information. Accordingly, the novel Fourier Basis Mapping (FBM) method addresses these issues by integrating time-frequency features through Fourier basis expansion and mapping in the time-frequency space. Our approach extracts explicit frequency features while preserving temporal characteristics. FBM supports plug-and-play integration with various types of neural networks by only adjusting the first initial projection layer for better performance. First, we propose FBM-L, FBM-NL, and FBM-NP to enhance linear, MLP-based, and Transformer-based models, respectively, demonstrating the effectiveness of time-frequency features. Next, we propose a synergetic model architecture, termed FBM-S, which decomposes the seasonal, trend, and interaction effects into three separate blocks, each designed to model time-frequency features in a specialized manner. Finally, we introduce several techniques tailored for time-frequency features, including interaction masking, centralization, patching, rolling window projection, and multi-scale down-sampling. The results are validated on diverse real-world datasets for both long-term and short-term forecasting tasks with SOTA performance.