Adam M. Johansen

Juan Kuntz, Jen Ning Lim, Adam M. Johansen

(Neal and Hinton, 1998) recast maximum likelihood estimation of any given latent variable model as the minimization of a free energy functional $F$, and the EM algorithm as coordinate descent applied to $F$. Here, we explore alternative ways to optimize the functional. In particular, we identify various gradient flows associated with $F$ and show that their limits coincide with $F$'s stationary points. By discretizing the flows, we obtain practical particle-based algorithms for maximum likelihood estimation in broad classes of latent variable models. The novel algorithms scale to high-dimensional settings and perform well in numerical experiments.

Rocco Caprio, Juan Kuntz, Samuel Power et al.

We prove non-asymptotic error bounds for particle gradient descent (PGD, Kuntz et al., 2023), a recently introduced algorithm for maximum likelihood estimation of large latent variable models obtained by discretizing a gradient flow of the free energy. We begin by showing that the flow converges exponentially fast to the free energy's minimizers for models satisfying a condition that generalizes both the log-Sobolev and the Polyak--Łojasiewicz inequalities (LSI and PŁI, respectively). We achieve this by extending a result well-known in the optimal transport literature (that the LSI implies the Talagrand inequality) and its counterpart in the optimization literature (that the PŁI implies the so-called quadratic growth condition), and applying the extension to our new setting. We also generalize the Bakry--Émery Theorem and show that the LSI/PŁI extension holds for models with strongly concave log-likelihoods. For such models, we further control PGD's discretization error and obtain the non-asymptotic error bounds. While we are motivated by the study of PGD, we believe that the inequalities and results we extend may be of independent interest.

Jen Ning Lim, Juan Kuntz, Samuel Power et al.

Maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) of latent variable models is often recast as the minimization of a free energy functional over an extended space of parameters and probability distributions. This perspective was recently combined with insights from optimal transport to obtain novel particle-based algorithms for fitting latent variable models to data. Drawing inspiration from prior works which interpret `momentum-enriched' optimization algorithms as discretizations of ordinary differential equations, we propose an analogous dynamical-systems-inspired approach to minimizing the free energy functional. The result is a dynamical system that blends elements of Nesterov's Accelerated Gradient method, the underdamped Langevin diffusion, and particle methods. Under suitable assumptions, we prove that the continuous-time system minimizes the functional. By discretizing the system, we obtain a practical algorithm for MLE in latent variable models. The algorithm outperforms existing particle methods in numerical experiments and compares favourably with other MLE algorithms.

Chatchuea Kimchaiwong, Jeremie Houssineau, Adam M. Johansen

The problem of incorporating information from observations received serially in time is widespread in the field of uncertainty quantification. Within a probabilistic framework, such problems can be addressed using standard filtering techniques. However, in many real-world problems, some (or all) of the uncertainty is epistemic, arising from a lack of knowledge, and is difficult to model probabilistically. This paper introduces a possibilistic ensemble Kalman filter designed for this setting and characterizes some of its properties. Using possibility theory to describe epistemic uncertainty is appealing from a philosophical perspective, and it is easy to justify certain heuristics often employed in standard ensemble Kalman filters as principled approaches to capturing uncertainty within it. The possibilistic approach motivates a robust mechanism for characterizing uncertainty which shows good performance with small sample sizes, and can outperform standard ensemble Kalman filters at given sample size, even when dealing with genuinely aleatoric uncertainty.

Jen Ning Lim, Adam M. Johansen

Semi-implicit variational inference (SIVI) enriches the expressiveness of variational families by utilizing a kernel and a mixing distribution to hierarchically define the variational distribution. Existing SIVI methods parameterize the mixing distribution using implicit distributions, leading to intractable variational densities. As a result, directly maximizing the evidence lower bound (ELBO) is not possible, so they resort to one of the following: optimizing bounds on the ELBO, employing costly inner-loop Markov chain Monte Carlo runs, or solving minimax objectives. In this paper, we propose a novel method for SIVI called Particle Variational Inference (PVI) which employs empirical measures to approximate the optimal mixing distributions characterized as the minimizer of a free energy functional. PVI arises naturally as a particle approximation of a Euclidean--Wasserstein gradient flow and, unlike prior works, it directly optimizes the ELBO whilst making no parametric assumption about the mixing distribution. Our empirical results demonstrate that PVI performs favourably compared to other SIVI methods across various tasks. Moreover, we provide a theoretical analysis of the behaviour of the gradient flow of a related free energy functional: establishing the existence and uniqueness of solutions as well as propagation of chaos results.

Ryan S. Y. Chan, Murray Pollock, Adam M. Johansen et al.

Combining several (sample approximations of) distributions, which we term sub-posteriors, into a single distribution proportional to their product, is a common challenge. Occurring, for instance, in distributed 'big data' problems, or when working under multi-party privacy constraints. Many existing approaches resort to approximating the individual sub-posteriors for practical necessity, then find either an analytical approximation or sample approximation of the resulting (product-pooled) posterior. The quality of the posterior approximation for these approaches is poor when the sub-posteriors fall out-with a narrow range of distributional form, such as being approximately Gaussian. Recently, a Fusion approach has been proposed which finds an exact Monte Carlo approximation of the posterior, circumventing the drawbacks of approximate approaches. Unfortunately, existing Fusion approaches have a number of computational limitations, particularly when unifying a large number of sub-posteriors. In this paper, we generalise the theory underpinning existing Fusion approaches, and embed the resulting methodology within a recursive divide-and-conquer sequential Monte Carlo paradigm. This ultimately leads to a competitive Fusion approach, which is robust to increasing numbers of sub-posteriors.

Ayman Boustati, Ömer Deniz Akyildiz, Theodoros Damoulas et al.

We introduce a framework for inference in general state-space hidden Markov models (HMMs) under likelihood misspecification. In particular, we leverage the loss-theoretic perspective of Generalized Bayesian Inference (GBI) to define generalised filtering recursions in HMMs, that can tackle the problem of inference under model misspecification. In doing so, we arrive at principled procedures for robust inference against observation contamination by utilising the $β$-divergence. Operationalising the proposed framework is made possible via sequential Monte Carlo methods (SMC), where most standard particle methods, and their associated convergence results, are readily adapted to the new setting. We apply our approach to object tracking and Gaussian process regression problems, and observe improved performance over both standard filtering algorithms and other robust filters.

Richard G. Everitt, Adam M. Johansen, Ellen Rowing et al.

Models for which the likelihood function can be evaluated only up to a parameter-dependent unknown normalising constant, such as Markov random field models, are used widely in computer science, statistical physics, spatial statistics, and network analysis. However, Bayesian analysis of these models using standard Monte Carlo methods is not possible due to the intractability of their likelihood functions. Several methods that permit exact, or close to exact, simulation from the posterior distribution have recently been developed. However, estimating the evidence and Bayes' factors (BFs) for these models remains challenging in general. This paper describes new random weight importance sampling and sequential Monte Carlo methods for estimating BFs that use simulation to circumvent the evaluation of the intractable likelihood, and compares them to existing methods. In some cases we observe an advantage in the use of biased weight estimates. An initial investigation into the theoretical and empirical properties of this class of methods is presented. Some support for the use of biased estimates is presented, but we advocate caution in the use of such estimates.

Fredrik Lindsten, Adam M. Johansen, Christian A. Naesseth et al.

We propose a novel class of Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) algorithms, appropriate for inference in probabilistic graphical models. This class of algorithms adopts a divide-and-conquer approach based upon an auxiliary tree-structured decomposition of the model of interest, turning the overall inferential task into a collection of recursively solved sub-problems. The proposed method is applicable to a broad class of probabilistic graphical models, including models with loops. Unlike a standard SMC sampler, the proposed Divide-and-Conquer SMC employs multiple independent populations of weighted particles, which are resampled, merged, and propagated as the method progresses. We illustrate empirically that this approach can outperform standard methods in terms of the accuracy of the posterior expectation and marginal likelihood approximations. Divide-and-Conquer SMC also opens up novel parallel implementation options and the possibility of concentrating the computational effort on the most challenging sub-problems. We demonstrate its performance on a Markov random field and on a hierarchical logistic regression problem.