Yu Zhao

MingCai Chen, Yu Zhao, Bing He et al.

Learning with Noisy Labels (LNL) has attracted significant attention from the research community. Many recent LNL methods rely on the assumption that clean samples tend to have "small loss". However, this assumption always fails to generalize to some real-world cases with imbalanced subpopulations, i.e., training subpopulations varying in sample size or recognition difficulty. Therefore, recent LNL methods face the risk of misclassifying those "informative" samples (e.g., hard samples or samples in the tail subpopulations) into noisy samples, leading to poor generalization performance. To address the above issue, we propose a novel LNL method to simultaneously deal with noisy labels and imbalanced subpopulations. It first leverages sample correlation to estimate samples' clean probabilities for label correction and then utilizes corrected labels for Distributionally Robust Optimization (DRO) to further improve the robustness. Specifically, in contrast to previous works using classification loss as the selection criterion, we introduce a feature-based metric that takes the sample correlation into account for estimating samples' clean probabilities. Then, we refurbish the noisy labels using the estimated clean probabilities and the pseudo-labels from the model's predictions. With refurbished labels, we use DRO to train the model to be robust to subpopulation imbalance. Extensive experiments on a wide range of benchmarks demonstrate that our technique can consistently improve current state-of-the-art robust learning paradigms against noisy labels, especially when encountering imbalanced subpopulations.

Pan Deng, Yu Zhao, Junting Liu et al.

As a representative of public transportation, the fundamental issue of managing bike-sharing systems is bike flow prediction. Recent methods overemphasize the spatio-temporal correlations in the data, ignoring the effects of contextual conditions on the transportation system and the inter-regional timevarying causality. In addition, due to the disturbance of incomplete observations in the data, random contextual conditions lead to spurious correlations between data and features, making the prediction of the model ineffective in special scenarios. To overcome this issue, we propose a Spatio-temporal Neural Structure Causal Model(STNSCM) from the perspective of causality. First, we build a causal graph to describe the traffic prediction, and further analyze the causal relationship between the input data, contextual conditions, spatiotemporal states, and prediction results. Second, we propose to apply the frontdoor criterion to eliminate confounding biases in the feature extraction process. Finally, we propose a counterfactual representation reasoning module to extrapolate the spatio-temporal state under the factual scenario to future counterfactual scenarios to improve the prediction performance. Experiments on real-world datasets demonstrate the superior performance of our model, especially its resistance to fluctuations caused by the external environment. The source code and data will be released.

Yu Zhao, Pan Deng, Junting Liu et al.

Multimodal traffic flow can reflect the health of the transportation system, and its prediction is crucial to urban traffic management. Recent works overemphasize spatio-temporal correlations of traffic flow, ignoring the physical concepts that lead to the generation of observations and their causal relationship. Spatio-temporal correlations are considered unstable under the influence of different conditions, and spurious correlations may exist in observations. In this paper, we analyze the physical concepts affecting the generation of multimode traffic flow from the perspective of the observation generation principle and propose a Causal Conditional Hidden Markov Model (CCHMM) to predict multimodal traffic flow. In the latent variables inference stage, a posterior network disentangles the causal representations of the concepts of interest from conditional information and observations, and a causal propagation module mines their causal relationship. In the data generation stage, a prior network samples the causal latent variables from the prior distribution and feeds them into the generator to generate multimodal traffic flow. We use a mutually supervised training method for the prior and posterior to enhance the identifiability of the model. Experiments on real-world datasets show that CCHMM can effectively disentangle causal representations of concepts of interest and identify causality, and accurately predict multimodal traffic flow.

Xiang Li, Yiqun Yao, Xin Jiang et al.

Large language models (LLMs) have showcased profound capabilities in language understanding and generation, facilitating a wide array of applications. However, there is a notable paucity of detailed, open-sourced methodologies on efficiently scaling LLMs beyond 50 billion parameters with minimum trial-and-error cost and computational resources. In this report, we introduce Tele-FLM (aka FLM-2), a 52B open-sourced multilingual large language model that features a stable, efficient pre-training paradigm and enhanced factual judgment capabilities. Tele-FLM demonstrates superior multilingual language modeling abilities, measured by BPB on textual corpus. Besides, in both English and Chinese foundation model evaluation, it is comparable to strong open-sourced models that involve larger pre-training FLOPs, such as Llama2-70B and DeepSeek-67B. In addition to the model weights, we share the core designs, engineering practices, and training details, which we expect to benefit both the academic and industrial communities.