Anurag Mishra

Anurag Mishra

Time series foundation models (TSFMs) are increasingly deployed in high-stakes domains, yet their internal representations remain opaque. We present the first application of sparse autoencoders (SAEs) to a TSFM, training TopK SAEs on activations of Chronos-T5-Large (710M parameters) across six layers. Through 392 single-feature ablation experiments, we establish that every ablated feature produces a positive CRPS degradation, confirming causal relevance. Our analysis reveals a depth-dependent hierarchy: early encoder layers encode low-level frequency features, the mid-encoder concentrates causally critical change-detection features, and the final encoder compresses a rich but less causally important taxonomy of temporal concepts. The most critical features reside in the mid-encoder (max single-feature Delta CRPS = 38.61), not in the semantically richest final encoder layer, where progressive ablation paradoxically improves forecast quality. These findings demonstrate that mechanistic interpretability transfers effectively to TSFMs and that Chronos-T5 relies on abrupt-dynamics detection rather than periodic pattern recognition.

Tuhin Sahai, Anurag Mishra, Jose Miguel Pasini et al.

Given a Boolean formula $φ(x)$ in conjunctive normal form (CNF), the density of states counts the number of variable assignments that violate exactly $e$ clauses, for all values of $e$. Thus, the density of states is a histogram of the number of unsatisfied clauses over all possible assignments. This computation generalizes both maximum-satisfiability (MAX-SAT) and model counting problems and not only provides insight into the entire solution space, but also yields a measure for the \emph{hardness} of the problem instance. Consequently, in real-world scenarios, this problem is typically infeasible even when using state-of-the-art algorithms. While finding an exact answer to this problem is a computationally intensive task, we propose a novel approach for estimating density of states based on the concentration of measure inequalities. The methodology results in a quadratic unconstrained binary optimization (QUBO), which is particularly amenable to quantum annealing-based solutions. We present the overall approach and compare results from the D-Wave quantum annealer against the best-known classical algorithms such as the Hamze-de Freitas-Selby (HFS) algorithm and satisfiability modulo theory (SMT) solvers.