Deng Pan

Xin Li, Deng Pan, Chengyin Li et al.

There are increasing demands for understanding deep neural networks' (DNNs) behavior spurred by growing security and/or transparency concerns. Due to multi-layer nonlinearity of the deep neural network architectures, explaining DNN predictions still remains as an open problem, preventing us from gaining a deeper understanding of the mechanisms. To enhance the explainability of DNNs, we estimate the input feature's attributions to the prediction task using divergence and flux. Inspired by the divergence theorem in vector analysis, we develop a novel Negative Flux Aggregation (NeFLAG) formulation and an efficient approximation algorithm to estimate attribution map. Unlike the previous techniques, ours doesn't rely on fitting a surrogate model nor need any path integration of gradients. Both qualitative and quantitative experiments demonstrate a superior performance of NeFLAG in generating more faithful attribution maps than the competing methods. Our code is available at \url{https://github.com/xinli0928/NeFLAG}

Yu Zhao, Pan Deng, Junting Liu et al.

Multimodal traffic flow can reflect the health of the transportation system, and its prediction is crucial to urban traffic management. Recent works overemphasize spatio-temporal correlations of traffic flow, ignoring the physical concepts that lead to the generation of observations and their causal relationship. Spatio-temporal correlations are considered unstable under the influence of different conditions, and spurious correlations may exist in observations. In this paper, we analyze the physical concepts affecting the generation of multimode traffic flow from the perspective of the observation generation principle and propose a Causal Conditional Hidden Markov Model (CCHMM) to predict multimodal traffic flow. In the latent variables inference stage, a posterior network disentangles the causal representations of the concepts of interest from conditional information and observations, and a causal propagation module mines their causal relationship. In the data generation stage, a prior network samples the causal latent variables from the prior distribution and feeds them into the generator to generate multimodal traffic flow. We use a mutually supervised training method for the prior and posterior to enhance the identifiability of the model. Experiments on real-world datasets show that CCHMM can effectively disentangle causal representations of concepts of interest and identify causality, and accurately predict multimodal traffic flow.