Heeyoung Kim

Wonmo Koo, Sanha Chang, Heeyoung Kim

Accurate vessel trajectory prediction is essential for safe and efficient maritime operations, enabling collision avoidance and supporting route optimization. Although memory-augmented neural networks have recently shown strong performance in pedestrian and road-vehicle trajectory prediction by selectively retrieving relevant information from an external memory, their potential for vessel trajectory prediction remains underexplored. This paper presents an empirical investigation of memory-based trajectory prediction using Automatic Identification System (AIS) data. Experiments on data from the Gulf of Mexico and the New York Bight demonstrate consistent and substantial performance gains over a range of deep learning baselines that do not incorporate an external memory.

Jaeyeong Lee, Wonmo Koo, Heeyoung Kim

Vessel trajectory prediction from Automatic Identification System (AIS) data is essential for maritime situational awareness, yet it remains challenging due to irregular sampling, missing reports, and complex dynamics. Beyond accurate point forecasts, maritime applications also demand well-calibrated uncertainty estimates for reliable decision-making. Bayesian Neural Ordinary Differential Equations (ODEs) offer a principled framework for continuous-time trajectory modeling with uncertainty quantification by placing a prior over the neural vector field parameters. However, the commonly used isotropic Gaussian weight prior fails to encode informative structural properties of vessel dynamics, such as smoothness and locality. Existing function-space Bayesian neural network methods address this limitation for static mappings, but do not transfer directly to Neural ODEs, where the primary quantity of interest is the trajectory rather than the vector field itself. In principle, one could place a Gaussian process (GP) prior directly over ODE solutions, but this requires propagating distributions through a nonlinear ODE solver, which is analytically intractable. To address this challenge, we adopt a practical approach that imposes a GP-kernel-based prior directly on the vector field evaluated at a finite set of measurement points. Specifically, we augment the standard weight-space variational objective with a kernel-based regularizer that penalizes deviations of the vector field from the structure implied by a GP prior. To handle long and irregular AIS trajectories, we further combine this function-space regularization with probabilistic multiple shooting, which decouples inference across temporal segments while maintaining global consistency.

Taeseong Yoon, Heeyoung Kim

Evidential deep learning (EDL) has shown remarkable success in uncertainty estimation. However, there is still room for improvement, particularly in out-of-distribution (OOD) detection and classification tasks. The limited OOD detection performance of EDL arises from its inability to reflect the distance between the testing example and training data when quantifying uncertainty, while its limited classification performance stems from its parameterization of the concentration parameters. To address these limitations, we propose a novel method called Density Aware Evidential Deep Learning (DAEDL). DAEDL integrates the feature space density of the testing example with the output of EDL during the prediction stage, while using a novel parameterization that resolves the issues in the conventional parameterization. We prove that DAEDL enjoys a number of favorable theoretical properties. DAEDL demonstrates state-of-the-art performance across diverse downstream tasks related to uncertainty estimation and classification

Kyeongjun Lee, Heeyoung Kim

Accurate vessel traffic flow prediction is crucial for smart port operations and navigational safety. However, maritime traffic flow data are often highly sparse with intermittent bursts, making robust forecasting challenging. Under such conditions, conventional spatio-temporal graph neural networks (ST-GNNs) can degrade toward conservative near-zero predictions and fail to capture non-zero activity. Although zero-inflated negative binomial (ZINB) models partially address excess zeros, their two-part formulation can still remain conservative around abrupt transitions. To address these issues, we propose a model-agnostic learnable Tweedie head that can be attached as a plug-and-play output module to arbitrary ST-GNN backbones. Instead of likelihood-based Tweedie training, which typically requires surrogate objectives, our approach optimizes the closed-form Tweedie unit deviance and predicts the mean for point forecasting while learning a node-level variance power to capture heterogeneous variability across port areas. Experiments on a maritime traffic graph constructed from real-world AIS data in the Port of Los Angeles and Long Beach show that the proposed head consistently improves RMSE across multiple ST-GNN backbones, especially on non-zero events, leading to more reliable forecasts for practical maritime traffic control.

Hyuck Lee, Heeyoung Kim

Pseudo-label-based semi-supervised learning (SSL) algorithms trained on a class-imbalanced set face two cascading challenges: 1) Classifiers tend to be biased towards majority classes, and 2) Biased pseudo-labels are used for training. It is difficult to appropriately re-balance the classifiers in SSL because the class distribution of an unlabeled set is often unknown and could be mismatched with that of a labeled set. We propose a novel class-imbalanced SSL algorithm called class-distribution-mismatch-aware debiasing (CDMAD). For each iteration of training, CDMAD first assesses the classifier's biased degree towards each class by calculating the logits on an image without any patterns (e.g., solid color image), which can be considered irrelevant to the training set. CDMAD then refines biased pseudo-labels of the base SSL algorithm by ensuring the classifier's neutrality. CDMAD uses these refined pseudo-labels during the training of the base SSL algorithm to improve the quality of the representations. In the test phase, CDMAD similarly refines biased class predictions on test samples. CDMAD can be seen as an extension of post-hoc logit adjustment to address a challenge of incorporating the unknown class distribution of the unlabeled set for re-balancing the biased classifier under class distribution mismatch. CDMAD ensures Fisher consistency for the balanced error. Extensive experiments verify the effectiveness of CDMAD.

Jaeyeong Lee, Heeyoung Kim

Real-world spatio-temporal forecasting must handle irregular time points, spatially sparse observations, and the need for uncertainty quantification. This setting is often further compounded by nonlocal interactions (long-range spatial coupling). Modeling continuous-space, continuous-time nonlocal dynamics naturally leads to infinite-dimensional integro-differential equations (IDEs), making principled Bayesian inference intractable. We propose the NonLocal Bayesian Spatio-Temporal model (NLBST), a hierarchical Bayesian framework for continuous spatio-temporal fields that learns explicit nonlocal coupling while retaining tractable inference. NLBST represents the latent field via a coordinate-based spatial basis expansion and models the coefficient process with a continuous-time ODE whose learnable linear operator corresponds to a Galerkin reduction of a nonlocal IDE; a Neural ODE residual captures additional nonlinear dynamics. A linear-Gaussian observation model enables Kalman-style sequential updates under missing and irregular observations, while the spatial basis representation enables inductive prediction at unmeasured locations without retraining. Global parameters are learned via variational inference, and uncertainty is handled through a Bayesian hierarchy. Experiments on synthetic and real-world datasets demonstrate strong forecasting and spatial generalization with well-calibrated uncertainty, yielding substantial gains over baselines in strongly nonlocal and partially observed regimes.

Taeseong Yoon, Heeyoung Kim

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) is crucial for deploying machine learning models in high-stakes applications, where overconfident predictions can lead to serious consequences. An effective UQ method must balance computational efficiency with the ability to generalize across diverse scenarios. Evidential deep learning (EDL) achieves efficiency by modeling uncertainty through the prediction of a Dirichlet distribution over class probabilities. However, the restrictive assumption of Dirichlet-distributed class probabilities limits EDL's robustness, particularly in complex or unforeseen situations. To address this, we propose \textit{flexible evidential deep learning} ($\mathcal{F}$-EDL), which extends EDL by predicting a flexible Dirichlet distribution -- a generalization of the Dirichlet distribution -- over class probabilities. This approach provides a more expressive and adaptive representation of uncertainty, significantly enhancing UQ generalization and reliability under challenging scenarios. We theoretically establish several advantages of $\mathcal{F}$-EDL and empirically demonstrate its state-of-the-art UQ performance across diverse evaluation settings, including classical, long-tailed, and noisy in-distribution scenarios.

Hyuck Lee, Seungjae Shin, Heeyoung Kim

Existing semi-supervised learning (SSL) algorithms typically assume class-balanced datasets, although the class distributions of many real-world datasets are imbalanced. In general, classifiers trained on a class-imbalanced dataset are biased toward the majority classes. This issue becomes more problematic for SSL algorithms because they utilize the biased prediction of unlabeled data for training. However, traditional class-imbalanced learning techniques, which are designed for labeled data, cannot be readily combined with SSL algorithms. We propose a scalable class-imbalanced SSL algorithm that can effectively use unlabeled data, while mitigating class imbalance by introducing an auxiliary balanced classifier (ABC) of a single layer, which is attached to a representation layer of an existing SSL algorithm. The ABC is trained with a class-balanced loss of a minibatch, while using high-quality representations learned from all data points in the minibatch using the backbone SSL algorithm to avoid overfitting and information loss.Moreover, we use consistency regularization, a recent SSL technique for utilizing unlabeled data in a modified way, to train the ABC to be balanced among the classes by selecting unlabeled data with the same probability for each class. The proposed algorithm achieves state-of-the-art performance in various class-imbalanced SSL experiments using four benchmark datasets.