Vinayak Gupta

Mike A. Merrill, Mingtian Tan, Vinayak Gupta et al.

Time series are critical for decision-making in fields like finance and healthcare. Their importance has driven a recent influx of works passing time series into language models, leading to non-trivial forecasting on some datasets. But it remains unknown whether non-trivial forecasting implies that language models can reason about time series. To address this gap, we generate a first-of-its-kind evaluation framework for time series reasoning, including formal tasks and a corresponding dataset of multi-scale time series paired with text captions across ten domains. Using these data, we probe whether language models achieve three forms of reasoning: (1) Etiological Reasoning - given an input time series, can the language model identify the scenario that most likely created it? (2) Question Answering - can a language model answer factual questions about time series? (3) Context-Aided Forecasting - does highly relevant textual context improve a language model's time series forecasts? We find that otherwise highly-capable language models demonstrate surprisingly limited time series reasoning: they score marginally above random on etiological and question answering tasks (up to 30 percentage points worse than humans) and show modest success in using context to improve forecasting. These weakness showcase that time series reasoning is an impactful, yet deeply underdeveloped direction for language model research. We also make our datasets and code public at to support further research in this direction at https://github.com/behavioral-data/TSandLanguage

Vinayak Gupta

With the research directions described in this thesis, we seek to address the critical challenges in designing recommender systems that can understand the dynamics of continuous-time event sequences. We follow a ground-up approach, i.e., first, we address the problems that may arise due to the poor quality of CTES data being fed into a recommender system. Later, we handle the task of designing accurate recommender systems. To improve the quality of the CTES data, we address a fundamental problem of overcoming missing events in temporal sequences. Moreover, to provide accurate sequence modeling frameworks, we design solutions for points-of-interest recommendation, i.e., models that can handle spatial mobility data of users to various POI check-ins and recommend candidate locations for the next check-in. Lastly, we highlight that the capabilities of the proposed models can have applications beyond recommender systems, and we extend their abilities to design solutions for large-scale CTES retrieval and human activity prediction. A significant part of this thesis uses the idea of modeling the underlying distribution of CTES via neural marked temporal point processes (MTPP). Traditional MTPP models are stochastic processes that utilize a fixed formulation to capture the generative mechanism of a sequence of discrete events localized in continuous time. In contrast, neural MTPP combine the underlying ideas from the point process literature with modern deep learning architectures. The ability of deep-learning models as accurate function approximators has led to a significant gain in the predictive prowess of neural MTPP models. In this thesis, we utilize and present several neural network-based enhancements for the current MTPP frameworks for the aforementioned real-world applications.

Vinayak Gupta, Yunze Man, Yu-Xiong Wang

Recent advances in diffusion models have revolutionized 2D and 3D content creation, yet generating photorealistic dynamic 4D scenes remains a significant challenge. Existing dynamic 4D generation methods typically rely on distilling knowledge from pre-trained 3D generative models, often fine-tuned on synthetic object datasets. Consequently, the resulting scenes tend to be object-centric and lack photorealism. While text-to-video models can generate more realistic scenes with motion, they often struggle with spatial understanding and provide limited control over camera viewpoints during rendering. To address these limitations, we present PaintScene4D, a novel text-to-4D scene generation framework that departs from conventional multi-view generative models in favor of a streamlined architecture that harnesses video generative models trained on diverse real-world datasets. Our method first generates a reference video using a video generation model, and then employs a strategic camera array selection for rendering. We apply a progressive warping and inpainting technique to ensure both spatial and temporal consistency across multiple viewpoints. Finally, we optimize multi-view images using a dynamic renderer, enabling flexible camera control based on user preferences. Adopting a training-free architecture, our PaintScene4D efficiently produces realistic 4D scenes that can be viewed from arbitrary trajectories. The code will be made publicly available. Our project page is at https://paintscene4d.github.io/

Vinayak Gupta, Rahul Goel, Sirikonda Dhawal et al.

Traditional Radiance Field (RF) representations capture details of a specific scene and must be trained afresh on each scene. Semantic feature fields have been added to RFs to facilitate several segmentation tasks. Generalised RF representations learn the principles of view interpolation. A generalised RF can render new views of an unknown and untrained scene, given a few views. We present a way to distil feature fields into the generalised GNT representation. Our GSN representation generates new views of unseen scenes on the fly along with consistent, per-pixel semantic features. This enables multi-view segmentation of arbitrary new scenes. We show different semantic features being distilled into generalised RFs. Our multi-view segmentation results are on par with methods that use traditional RFs. GSN closes the gap between standard and generalisable RF methods significantly. Project Page: https://vinayak-vg.github.io/GSN/

Mingtian Tan, Mike A. Merrill, Vinayak Gupta et al.

Large language models (LLMs) are being applied to time series forecasting. But are language models actually useful for time series? In a series of ablation studies on three recent and popular LLM-based time series forecasting methods, we find that removing the LLM component or replacing it with a basic attention layer does not degrade forecasting performance -- in most cases, the results even improve! We also find that despite their significant computational cost, pretrained LLMs do no better than models trained from scratch, do not represent the sequential dependencies in time series, and do not assist in few-shot settings. Additionally, we explore time series encoders and find that patching and attention structures perform similarly to LLM-based forecasters.

Vinayak Gupta, Srikanta Bedathur, Abir De

Recent developments in predictive modeling using marked temporal point processes (MTPP) have enabled an accurate characterization of several real-world applications involving continuous-time event sequences (CTESs). However, the retrieval problem of such sequences remains largely unaddressed in literature. To tackle this, we propose NEUROSEQRET which learns to retrieve and rank a relevant set of continuous-time event sequences for a given query sequence, from a large corpus of sequences. More specifically, NEUROSEQRET first applies a trainable unwarping function on the query sequence, which makes it comparable with corpus sequences, especially when a relevant query-corpus pair has individually different attributes. Next, it feeds the unwarped query sequence and the corpus sequence into MTPP guided neural relevance models. We develop two variants of the relevance model which offer a tradeoff between accuracy and efficiency. We also propose an optimization framework to learn binary sequence embeddings from the relevance scores, suitable for the locality-sensitive hashing leading to a significant speedup in returning top-K results for a given query sequence. Our experiments with several datasets show the significant accuracy boost of NEUROSEQRET beyond several baselines, as well as the efficacy of our hashing mechanism.