David Jones

Evan Munro, David Jones, Jennifer Brennan et al.

In online platforms, the impact of a treatment on an observed outcome may change over time as 1) users learn about the intervention, and 2) the system personalization, such as individualized recommendations, change over time. We introduce a non-parametric causal model of user actions in a personalized system. We show that the Cookie-Cookie-Day (CCD) experiment, designed for the measurement of the user learning effect, is biased when there is personalization. We derive new experimental designs that intervene in the personalization system to generate the variation necessary to separately identify the causal effect mediated through user learning and personalization. Making parametric assumptions allows for the estimation of long-term causal effects based on medium-term experiments. In simulations, we show that our new designs successfully recover the dynamic causal effects of interest.

Hagen Soltau, Izhak Shafran, Alex Ottenwess et al.

We propose a Perceiver-based sequence classifier to detect abnormalities in speech reflective of several neurological disorders. We combine this classifier with a Universal Speech Model (USM) that is trained (unsupervised) on 12 million hours of diverse audio recordings. Our model compresses long sequences into a small set of class-specific latent representations and a factorized projection is used to predict different attributes of the disordered input speech. The benefit of our approach is that it allows us to model different regions of the input for different classes and is at the same time data efficient. We evaluated the proposed model extensively on a curated corpus from the Mayo Clinic. Our model outperforms standard transformer (80.9%) and perceiver (81.8%) models and achieves an average accuracy of 83.1%. With limited task-specific data, we find that pretraining is important and surprisingly pretraining with the unrelated automatic speech recognition (ASR) task is also beneficial. Encodings from the middle layers provide a mix of both acoustic and phonetic information and achieve best prediction results compared to just using the final layer encodings (83.1% vs. 79.6%). The results are promising and with further refinements may help clinicians detect speech abnormalities without needing access to highly specialized speech-language pathologists.

Krishnakant V. Saboo, Anirudh Choudhary, Yurui Cao et al.

We model Alzheimer's disease (AD) progression by combining differential equations (DEs) and reinforcement learning (RL) with domain knowledge. DEs provide relationships between some, but not all, factors relevant to AD. We assume that the missing relationships must satisfy general criteria about the working of the brain, for e.g., maximizing cognition while minimizing the cost of supporting cognition. This allows us to extract the missing relationships by using RL to optimize an objective (reward) function that captures the above criteria. We use our model consisting of DEs (as a simulator) and the trained RL agent to predict individualized 10-year AD progression using baseline (year 0) features on synthetic and real data. The model was comparable or better at predicting 10-year cognition trajectories than state-of-the-art learning-based models. Our interpretable model demonstrated, and provided insights into, "recovery/compensatory" processes that mitigate the effect of AD, even though those processes were not explicitly encoded in the model. Our framework combines DEs with RL for modelling AD progression and has broad applicability for understanding other neurological disorders.