Zhongyang Zhao

Xuesong Wang, Sharaf K. Magableh, Oraib Dawaghreh et al.

Virtual bidding plays an important role in two-settlement electric power markets, as it can reduce discrepancies between day-ahead and real-time markets. Renewable energy penetration increases volatility in electricity prices, making accurate forecasting critical for virtual bidders, reducing uncertainty and maximizing profits. This study presents a Transformer-based deep learning model to forecast the price spread between real-time and day-ahead electricity prices in the ERCOT (Electric Reliability Council of Texas) market. The proposed model leverages various time-series features, including load forecasts, solar and wind generation forecasts, and temporal attributes. The model is trained under realistic constraints and validated using a walk-forward approach by updating the model every week. Based on the price spread prediction results, several trading strategies are proposed and the most effective strategy for maximizing cumulative profit under realistic market conditions is identified through backtesting. The results show that the strategy of trading only at the peak hour with a precision score of over 50% produces nearly consistent profit over the test period. The proposed method underscores the importance of an accurate electricity price forecasting model and introduces a new method of evaluating the price forecast model from a virtual bidder's perspective, providing valuable insights for future research.

Yizheng Liao, Yang Weng, Guangyi Liu et al.

There is an increasing need for monitoring and controlling uncertainties brought by distributed energy resources in distribution grids. For such goal, accurate multi-phase topology is the basis for correlating measurements in unbalanced distribution networks. Unfortunately, such topology knowledge is often unavailable due to limited investment, especially for \revv{low-voltage} distribution grids. Also, the bus phase labeling information is inaccurate due to human errors or outdated records. For this challenge, this paper utilizes smart meter data for an information-theoretic approach to learn the topology of distribution grids. Specifically, multi-phase unbalanced systems are converted into symmetrical components, namely positive, negative, and zero sequences. Then, this paper proves that the Chow-Liu algorithm finds the topology by utilizing power flow equations and the conditional independence relationships implied by the radial multi-phase structure of distribution grids with the presence of incorrect bus phase labels. At last, by utilizing Carson's equation, this paper proves that the bus phase connection can be correctly identified using voltage measurements. For validation, IEEE systems are simulated using three real data sets. The simulation results demonstrate that the algorithm is highly accurate for finding multi-phase topology even with strong load unbalancing condition and DERs. This ensures close monitoring and controlling DERs in distribution grids.