Victor Orozco-Olvera

Manuel Tonneau, Dylan Thurgood, Diyi Liu et al. · oxford

Online hate speech is associated with substantial social harms, yet it remains unclear how consistently platforms enforce hate speech policies or whether enforcement is feasible at scale. We address these questions through a global audit of hate speech moderation on Twitter (now X). Using a complete 24-hour snapshot of public tweets, we construct representative samples comprising 540,000 tweets annotated for hate speech by trained annotators across eight major languages. Five months after posting, 80% of hateful tweets remain online, including explicitly violent hate speech. Such tweets are no more likely to be removed than non-hateful tweets, with neither severity nor visibility increasing the likelihood of removal. We then examine whether these enforcement gaps reflect technical limits of large-scale moderation systems. While fully automated detection systems cannot reliably identify hate speech without generating large numbers of false positives, they effectively prioritize likely violations for human review. Simulations of a human-AI moderation pipeline indicate that substantially reducing user exposure to hate speech is economically feasible at a cost below existing regulatory penalties. These results suggest that the persistence of online hate cannot be explained by technical constraints alone but also reflects institutional choices in the allocation of moderation resources.

Manuel Tonneau, Neil K. R. Seghal, Niyati Malhotra et al.

Demographic probing is widely used to study how large language models (LLMs) adapt their behavior to signaled demographic attributes. This approach typically uses a single demographic cue in isolation (e.g., a name or dialect) as a signal for group membership, implicitly assuming strong construct validity: that such cues are interchangeable operationalizations of the same underlying, demographically conditioned behavior. We test this assumption in realistic advice-seeking interactions, focusing on race and gender in a U.S. context. We find that cues intended to represent the same demographic group induce only partially overlapping changes in model behavior, while differentiation between groups within a given cue is weak and uneven. Consequently, estimated disparities are unstable, with both magnitude and direction varying across cues. We further show that these inconsistencies partly arise from variation in how strongly cues encode demographic attributes and from linguistic confounders that independently shape model behavior. Together, our findings suggest that demographic probing lacks construct validity: it does not yield a single, stable characterization of how LLMs condition on demographic information, which may reflect a misspecified or fragmented construct. We conclude by recommending the use of multiple, ecologically valid cues and explicit control of confounders to support more defensible claims about demographic effects in LLMs.

Manuel Tonneau, Pedro Vitor Quinta de Castro, Karim Lasri et al. · oxford

To address the global issue of online hate, hate speech detection (HSD) systems are typically developed on datasets from the United States, thereby failing to generalize to English dialects from the Majority World. Furthermore, HSD models are often evaluated on non-representative samples, raising concerns about overestimating model performance in real-world settings. In this work, we introduce NaijaHate, the first dataset annotated for HSD which contains a representative sample of Nigerian tweets. We demonstrate that HSD evaluated on biased datasets traditionally used in the literature consistently overestimates real-world performance by at least two-fold. We then propose NaijaXLM-T, a pretrained model tailored to the Nigerian Twitter context, and establish the key role played by domain-adaptive pretraining and finetuning in maximizing HSD performance. Finally, owing to the modest performance of HSD systems in real-world conditions, we find that content moderators would need to review about ten thousand Nigerian tweets flagged as hateful daily to moderate 60% of all hateful content, highlighting the challenges of moderating hate speech at scale as social media usage continues to grow globally. Taken together, these results pave the way towards robust HSD systems and a better protection of social media users from hateful content in low-resource settings.

Manuel Tonneau, Diyi Liu, Niyati Malhotra et al. · oxford

To address the global challenge of online hate speech, prior research has developed detection models to flag such content on social media. However, due to systematic biases in evaluation datasets, the real-world effectiveness of these models remains unclear, particularly across geographies. We introduce HateDay, the first global hate speech dataset representative of social media settings, constructed from a random sample of all tweets posted on September 21, 2022 and covering eight languages and four English-speaking countries. Using HateDay, we uncover substantial variation in the prevalence and composition of hate speech across languages and regions. We show that evaluations on academic datasets greatly overestimate real-world detection performance, which we find is very low, especially for non-European languages. Our analysis identifies key drivers of this gap, including models' difficulty to distinguish hate from offensive speech and a mismatch between the target groups emphasized in academic datasets and those most frequently targeted in real-world settings. We argue that poor model performance makes public models ill-suited for automatic hate speech moderation and find that high moderation rates are only achievable with substantial human oversight. Our results underscore the need to evaluate detection systems on data that reflects the complexity and diversity of real-world social media.