Anqi Liu

Sara Kangaslahti, Danny Ebanks, Jean Kossaifi et al.

This paper proposes a topic modeling method that scales linearly to billions of documents. We make three core contributions: i) we present a topic modeling method, Tensor Latent Dirichlet Allocation (TLDA), that has identifiable and recoverable parameter guarantees and sample complexity guarantees for large data; ii) we show that this method is computationally and memory efficient (achieving speeds over 3-4x those of prior parallelized Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA) methods), and that it scales linearly to text datasets with over a billion documents; iii) we provide an open-source, GPU-based implementation, of this method. This scaling enables previously prohibitive analyses, and we perform two real-world, large-scale new studies of interest to political scientists: we provide the first thorough analysis of the evolution of the #MeToo movement through the lens of over two years of Twitter conversation and a detailed study of social media conversations about election fraud in the 2020 presidential election. Thus this method provides social scientists with the ability to study very large corpora at scale and to answer important theoretically-relevant questions about salient issues in near real-time.

Kate Sanders, Reno Kriz, Anqi Liu et al.

Contemporary vision benchmarks predominantly consider tasks on which humans can achieve near-perfect performance. However, humans are frequently presented with visual data that they cannot classify with 100% certainty, and models trained on standard vision benchmarks achieve low performance when evaluated on this data. To address this issue, we introduce a procedure for creating datasets of ambiguous images and use it to produce SQUID-E ("Squidy"), a collection of noisy images extracted from videos. All images are annotated with ground truth values and a test set is annotated with human uncertainty judgments. We use this dataset to characterize human uncertainty in vision tasks and evaluate existing visual event classification models. Experimental results suggest that existing vision models are not sufficiently equipped to provide meaningful outputs for ambiguous images and that datasets of this nature can be used to assess and improve such models through model training and direct evaluation of model calibration. These findings motivate large-scale ambiguous dataset creation and further research focusing on noisy visual data.

Samuel Barham, Orion Weller, Michelle Yuan et al.

To foster the development of new models for collaborative AI-assisted report generation, we introduce MegaWika, consisting of 13 million Wikipedia articles in 50 diverse languages, along with their 71 million referenced source materials. We process this dataset for a myriad of applications, going beyond the initial Wikipedia citation extraction and web scraping of content, including translating non-English articles for cross-lingual applications and providing FrameNet parses for automated semantic analysis. MegaWika is the largest resource for sentence-level report generation and the only report generation dataset that is multilingual. We manually analyze the quality of this resource through a semantically stratified sample. Finally, we provide baseline results and trained models for crucial steps in automated report generation: cross-lingual question answering and citation retrieval.

Drew Prinster, Anqi Liu, Suchi Saria

We propose \textbf{JAWS}, a series of wrapper methods for distribution-free uncertainty quantification tasks under covariate shift, centered on the core method \textbf{JAW}, the \textbf{JA}ckknife+ \textbf{W}eighted with data-dependent likelihood-ratio weights. JAWS also includes computationally efficient \textbf{A}pproximations of JAW using higher-order influence functions: \textbf{JAWA}. Theoretically, we show that JAW relaxes the jackknife+'s assumption of data exchangeability to achieve the same finite-sample coverage guarantee even under covariate shift. JAWA further approaches the JAW guarantee in the limit of the sample size or the influence function order under common regularity assumptions. Moreover, we propose a general approach to repurposing predictive interval-generating methods and their guarantees to the reverse task: estimating the probability that a prediction is erroneous, based on user-specified error criteria such as a safe or acceptable tolerance threshold around the true label. We then propose \textbf{JAW-E} and \textbf{JAWA-E} as the repurposed proposed methods for this \textbf{E}rror assessment task. Practically, JAWS outperform state-of-the-art predictive inference baselines in a variety of biased real world data sets for interval-generation and error-assessment predictive uncertainty auditing tasks.

Zhengping Jiang, Jingyu Zhang, Nathaniel Weir et al.

Hallucinations pose a challenge to the application of large language models (LLMs) thereby motivating the development of metrics to evaluate factual precision. We observe that popular metrics using the Decompose-Then-Verify framework, such as \FActScore, can be manipulated by adding obvious or repetitive subclaims to artificially inflate scores. This observation motivates our new customizable plug-and-play subclaim selection component called Core, which filters down individual subclaims according to their uniqueness and informativeness. We show that many popular factual precision metrics augmented by Core are substantially more robust on a wide range of knowledge domains. We release an evaluation framework supporting easy and modular use of Core and various decomposition strategies, which we recommend adoption by the community. We also release an expansion of the FActScore biography dataset to facilitate further studies of decomposition-based factual precision evaluation.

Zhaoning Li, Qiaoli Jiang, Zhengming Wu et al.

Autonomous cars are indispensable when humans go further down the hands-free route. Although existing literature highlights that the acceptance of the autonomous car will increase if it drives in a human-like manner, sparse research offers the naturalistic experience from a passenger's seat perspective to examine the humanness of current autonomous cars. The present study tested whether the AI driver could create a human-like ride experience for passengers based on 69 participants' feedback in a real-road scenario. We designed a ride experience-based version of the non-verbal Turing test for automated driving. Participants rode in autonomous cars (driven by either human or AI drivers) as a passenger and judged whether the driver was human or AI. The AI driver failed to pass our test because passengers detected the AI driver above chance. In contrast, when the human driver drove the car, the passengers' judgement was around chance. We further investigated how human passengers ascribe humanness in our test. Based on Lewin's field theory, we advanced a computational model combining signal detection theory with pre-trained language models to predict passengers' humanness rating behaviour. We employed affective transition between pre-study baseline emotions and corresponding post-stage emotions as the signal strength of our model. Results showed that the passengers' ascription of humanness would increase with the greater affective transition. Our study suggested an important role of affective transition in passengers' ascription of humanness, which might become a future direction for autonomous driving.

Bin Wang, Anqi Liu, Jiangtao Zhao et al.

Short-term air traffic flow prediction in terminal airspace is essential for proactive air traffic management. Existing approaches predominantly model traffic flow as aggregated time series, despite traffic dynamics being governed by aircraft states and interactions in continuous airspace. Such aggregation obscures fine-grained information including aircraft kinematics, boundary interactions, and control intent. Here we present AeroSense, a state-to-flow modeling framework that predicts future traffic flow directly from instantaneous airspace situations represented as dynamic sets of aircraft states derived from ADS-B trajectories. By establishing an end-to-end mapping from microscopic aircraft states to future regional traffic flow, AeroSense preserves aircraft-level dynamics while naturally accommodating varying traffic density without relying on historical look-back windows. Experiments on a large-scale real-world dataset show that AeroSense consistently improves predictive accuracy over aggregation-based forecasting approaches, particularly during high-density traffic periods. These findings suggest that instantaneous airspace situations provide an effective alternative to conventional time-series-based traffic forecasting paradigms.

Anqi Liu, Jiangtao Zhao, Guiyuan Jiang et al.

Accurate air traffic prediction in the terminal airspace (TA) is pivotal for proactive air traffic management (ATM). However, existing data-driven approaches predominantly rely on time series-based forecasting paradigms, which inherently overlook critical aircraft state information, such as real-time kinematics and proximity to airspace boundaries. To address this limitation, we propose \textit{AeroSense}, a direct state-to-flow modeling framework for air traffic prediction. Unlike classical time series-based methods that first aggregate aircraft trajectories into macroscopic flow sequences before modeling, AeroSense explicitly represents the real-time airspace situation as \textit{a dynamic set of aircraft states}, enabling the direct processing of a variable number of aircraft instead of time series as inputs. Specifically, we introduce a situation-aware state representation that enables AeroSense to sense the instantaneous terminal airspace situation directly from microscopic aircraft states. Furthermore, we design a model architecture that incorporates masked self-attention to capture inter-aircraft interactions, together with two decoupled prediction heads to model heterogeneous flow dynamics across two key functional areas of the TA. Extensive experiments on a large-scale real-world airport dataset demonstrate that AeroSense consistently achieves state-of-the-art performance, validating that direct modeling of microscopic aircraft states yields substantially higher predictive fidelity than time series-based baselines. Moreover, the proposed framework exhibits superior robustness during peak traffic periods, achieves Pareto-optimal performance under dayparting multi-object evaluation, and provides meaningful interpretability through attention-based visualizations.

Aayush Mishra, Anqi Liu

We study the problem of invariant learning when the environment labels are unknown. We focus on the invariant representation notion when the Bayes optimal conditional label distribution is the same across different environments. Previous work conducts Environment Inference (EI) by maximizing the penalty term from Invariant Risk Minimization (IRM) framework. The EI step uses a reference model which focuses on spurious correlations to efficiently reach a good environment partition. However, it is not clear how to find such a reference model. In this work, we propose to repeat the EI process and retrain an ERM model on the \textit{majority} environment inferred by the previous EI step. Under mild assumptions, we find that this iterative process helps learn a representation capturing the spurious correlation better than the single step. This results in better Environment Inference and better Invariant Learning. We show that this method outperforms baselines on both synthetic and real-world datasets.

Ha Manh Bui, Anqi Liu

Sampling-based methods, e.g., Deep Ensembles and Bayesian Neural Nets have become promising approaches to improve the quality of uncertainty estimation and robust generalization. However, they suffer from a large model size and high latency at test-time, which limits the scalability needed for low-resource devices and real-time applications. To resolve these computational issues, we propose Density-Softmax, a sampling-free deterministic framework via combining a density function built on a Lipschitz-constrained feature extractor with the softmax layer. Theoretically, we show that our model is the solution of minimax uncertainty risk and is distance-aware on feature space, thus reducing the over-confidence of the standard softmax under distribution shifts. Empirically, our method enjoys competitive results with state-of-the-art techniques in terms of uncertainty and robustness, while having a lower number of model parameters and a lower latency at test-time.

Zhitong Yang, Xing Ma, Anqi Liu et al.

Task-oriented dialog(TOD) aims to assist users in achieving specific goals through multi-turn conversation. Recently, good results have been obtained based on large pre-trained models. However, the labeled-data scarcity hinders the efficient development of TOD systems at scale. In this work, we constructed a weakly supervised dataset based on a teacher/student paradigm that leverages a large collection of unlabelled dialogues. Furthermore, we built a modular dialogue system and integrated coarse-to-fine grained classification for user intent detection. Experiments show that our method can reach the dialog goal with a higher success rate and generate more coherent responses.

Drew Prinster, Samuel Stanton, Anqi Liu et al.

As artificial intelligence (AI) / machine learning (ML) gain widespread adoption, practitioners are increasingly seeking means to quantify and control the risk these systems incur. This challenge is especially salient when such systems have autonomy to collect their own data, such as in black-box optimization and active learning, where their actions induce sequential feedback-loop shifts in the data distribution. Conformal prediction is a promising approach to uncertainty and risk quantification, but prior variants' validity guarantees have assumed some form of ``quasi-exchangeability'' on the data distribution, thereby excluding many types of sequential shifts. In this paper we prove that conformal prediction can theoretically be extended to \textit{any} joint data distribution, not just exchangeable or quasi-exchangeable ones. Although the most general case is exceedingly impractical to compute, for concrete practical applications we outline a procedure for deriving specific conformal algorithms for any data distribution, and we use this procedure to derive tractable algorithms for a series of AI/ML-agent-induced covariate shifts. We evaluate the proposed algorithms empirically on synthetic black-box optimization and active learning tasks.

Yihong Guo, Yixuan Wang, Yuanyuan Shi et al.

Training a policy in a source domain for deployment in the target domain under a dynamics shift can be challenging, often resulting in performance degradation. Previous work tackles this challenge by training on the source domain with modified rewards derived by matching distributions between the source and the target optimal trajectories. However, pure modified rewards only ensure the behavior of the learned policy in the source domain resembles trajectories produced by the target optimal policies, which does not guarantee optimal performance when the learned policy is actually deployed to the target domain. In this work, we propose to utilize imitation learning to transfer the policy learned from the reward modification to the target domain so that the new policy can generate the same trajectories in the target domain. Our approach, Domain Adaptation and Reward Augmented Imitation Learning (DARAIL), utilizes the reward modification for domain adaptation and follows the general framework of generative adversarial imitation learning from observation (GAIfO) by applying a reward augmented estimator for the policy optimization step. Theoretically, we present an error bound for our method under a mild assumption regarding the dynamics shift to justify the motivation of our method. Empirically, our method outperforms the pure modified reward method without imitation learning and also outperforms other baselines in benchmark off-dynamics environments.

Zhengping Jiang, Anqi Liu, Benjamin Van Durme

Language model outputs are not always reliable, thus prompting research into how to adapt model responses based on uncertainty. Common approaches include: \emph{abstention}, where models refrain from generating responses when uncertain; and \emph{linguistic calibration}, where models hedge their statements using uncertainty quantifiers. However, abstention can withhold valuable information, while linguistically calibrated responses are often challenging to leverage in downstream tasks. We propose a unified view, Conformal Linguistic Calibration (CLC), which reinterprets linguistic calibration as \emph{answer set prediction}. First we present a framework connecting abstention and linguistic calibration through the lens of linguistic pragmatics. We then describe an implementation of CLC that allows for controlling the level of imprecision in model responses. Results demonstrate our method produces calibrated outputs with conformal guarantees on factual accuracy. Further, our approach enables fine-tuning models to perform uncertainty-aware adaptive claim rewriting, offering a controllable balance between factuality and specificity.

Ha Manh Bui, Anqi Liu

Morden deep ensembles technique achieves strong uncertainty estimation performance by going through multiple forward passes with different models. This is at the price of a high storage space and a slow speed in the inference (test) time. To address this issue, we propose Density-Regression, a method that leverages the density function in uncertainty estimation and achieves fast inference by a single forward pass. We prove it is distance aware on the feature space, which is a necessary condition for a neural network to produce high-quality uncertainty estimation under distribution shifts. Empirically, we conduct experiments on regression tasks with the cubic toy dataset, benchmark UCI, weather forecast with time series, and depth estimation under real-world shifted applications. We show that Density-Regression has competitive uncertainty estimation performance under distribution shifts with modern deep regressors while using a lower model size and a faster inference speed.

Zhengping Jiang, Yining Lu, Hanjie Chen et al.

Free-text rationales play a pivotal role in explainable NLP, bridging the knowledge and reasoning gaps behind a model's decision-making. However, due to the diversity of potential reasoning paths and a corresponding lack of definitive ground truth, their evaluation remains a challenge. Existing evaluation metrics rely on the degree to which a rationale supports a target label, but we find these fall short in evaluating rationales that inadvertently leak the labels. To address this problem, we propose RORA, a Robust free-text Rationale evaluation against label leakage. RORA quantifies the new information supplied by a rationale to justify the label. This is achieved by assessing the conditional V-information \citep{hewitt-etal-2021-conditional} with a predictive family robust against leaky features that can be exploited by a small model. RORA consistently outperforms existing approaches in evaluating human-written, synthetic, or model-generated rationales, particularly demonstrating robustness against label leakage. We also show that RORA aligns well with human judgment, providing a more reliable and accurate measurement across diverse free-text rationales.

Liaoyaqi Wang, Zhengping Jiang, Anqi Liu et al.

We present a state-of-the-art model for fine-grained probability estimation of propositions conditioned on context. Recent advances in large language models (LLMs) have significantly enhanced their reasoning capabilities, particularly on well-defined tasks with complete information. However, LLMs continue to struggle with making accurate and well-calibrated probabilistic predictions under uncertainty or partial information. While incorporating uncertainty into model predictions often boosts performance, obtaining reliable estimates of that uncertainty remains understudied. In particular, LLM probability estimates tend to be coarse and biased towards more frequent numbers. Through a combination of human and synthetic data creation and assessment, scaling to larger models, and better supervision, we propose a set of strong and precise probability estimation models. We conduct systematic evaluations across tasks that rely on conditional probability estimation and show that our approach consistently outperforms existing fine-tuned and prompting-based methods by a large margin.

Kevin He, David Adam, Sarah Han-Oh et al.

Measurement quality assurance (QA) practices play a key role in the safe use of Intensity Modulated Radiation Therapies (IMRT) for cancer treatment. These practices have reduced measurement-based IMRT QA failure below 1%. However, these practices are time and labor intensive which can lead to delays in patient care. In this study, we examine how conformal prediction methodologies can be used to robustly triage plans. We propose a new training-aware conformal risk control method by combining the benefit of conformal risk control and conformal training. We incorporate the decision making thresholds based on the gamma passing rate, along with the risk functions used in clinical evaluation, into the design of the risk control framework. Our method achieves high sensitivity and specificity and significantly reduces the number of plans needing measurement without generating a huge confidence interval. Our results demonstrate the validity and applicability of conformal prediction methods for improving efficiency and reducing the workload of the IMRT QA process.

Ha Manh Bui, Enrique Mallada, Anqi Liu

By leveraging the representation power of deep neural networks, neural upper confidence bound (UCB) algorithms have shown success in contextual bandits. To further balance the exploration and exploitation, we propose Neural-$σ^2$-LinearUCB, a variance-aware algorithm that utilizes $σ^2_t$, i.e., an upper bound of the reward noise variance at round $t$, to enhance the uncertainty quantification quality of the UCB, resulting in a regret performance improvement. We provide an oracle version for our algorithm characterized by an oracle variance upper bound $σ^2_t$ and a practical version with a novel estimation for this variance bound. Theoretically, we provide rigorous regret analysis for both versions and prove that our oracle algorithm achieves a better regret guarantee than other neural-UCB algorithms in the neural contextual bandits setting. Empirically, our practical method enjoys a similar computational efficiency, while outperforming state-of-the-art techniques by having a better calibration and lower regret across multiple standard settings, including on the synthetic, UCI, MNIST, and CIFAR-10 datasets.

Ha Manh Bui, Felix Parker, Kimia Ghobadi et al.

We study the Non-Stationary Reinforcement Learning (RL) under distribution shifts in both finite-horizon episodic and infinite-horizon discounted Markov Decision Processes (MDPs). In the finite-horizon case, the transition functions may suddenly change at a particular episode. In the infinite-horizon setting, such changes can occur at an arbitrary time step during the agent's interaction with the environment. While the Q-learning Upper Confidence Bound algorithm (QUCB) can discover a proper policy during learning, due to the distribution shifts, this policy can exploit sub-optimal rewards after the shift happens. To address this issue, we propose Density-QUCB (DQUCB), a shift-aware Q-learning~UCB algorithm, which uses a transition density function to detect distribution shifts, then leverages its likelihood to enhance the uncertainty estimation quality of Q-learning~UCB, resulting in a balance between exploration and exploitation. Theoretically, we prove that our oracle DQUCB achieves a better regret guarantee than QUCB. Empirically, our DQUCB enjoys the computational efficiency of model-free RL and outperforms QUCB baselines by having a lower regret across RL tasks, as well as a real-world COVID-19 patient hospital allocation task using a Deep-Q-learning architecture.

Ha Manh Bui, Iliana Maifeld-Carucci, Anqi Liu

We study the problem of actively learning a classifier with a low calibration error. One of the most popular Acquisition Functions (AFs) in pool-based Active Learning (AL) is querying by the model's uncertainty. However, we recognize that an uncalibrated uncertainty model on the unlabeled pool may significantly affect the AF effectiveness, leading to sub-optimal generalization and high calibration error on unseen data. Deep Neural Networks (DNNs) make it even worse as the model uncertainty from DNN is usually uncalibrated. Therefore, we propose a new AF by estimating calibration errors and query samples with the highest calibration error before leveraging DNN uncertainty. Specifically, we utilize a kernel calibration error estimator under the covariate shift and formally show that AL with this AF eventually leads to a bounded calibration error on the unlabeled pool and unseen test data. Empirically, our proposed method surpasses other AF baselines by having a lower calibration and generalization error across pool-based AL settings.

Yihong Guo, Yu Yang, Pan Xu et al.

We study off-dynamics offline reinforcement learning, where the goal is to learn a policy from offline source and limited target datasets with mismatched dynamics. Existing methods either penalize the reward or discard source transitions occurring in parts of the transition space with high dynamics shift. As a result, they optimize the policy using data from low-shift regions, limiting exploration of high-reward states in the target domain that do not fall within these regions. Consequently, such methods often fail when the dynamics shift is significant or the optimal trajectories lie outside the low-shift regions. To overcome this limitation, we propose MOBODY, a Model-Based Off-Dynamics Offline RL algorithm that optimizes a policy using learned target dynamics transitions to explore the target domain, rather than only being trained with the low dynamics-shift transitions. For the dynamics learning, built on the observation that achieving the same next state requires taking different actions in different domains, MOBODY employs separate action encoders for each domain to encode different actions to the shared latent space while sharing a unified representation of states and a common transition function. We further introduce a target Q-weighted behavior cloning loss in policy optimization to avoid out-of-distribution actions, which push the policy toward actions with high target-domain Q-values, rather than high source domain Q-values or uniformly imitating all actions in the offline dataset. We evaluate MOBODY on a wide range of MuJoCo and Adroit benchmarks, demonstrating that it outperforms state-of-the-art off-dynamics RL baselines as well as policy learning methods based on different dynamics learning baselines, with especially pronounced improvements in challenging scenarios where existing methods struggle.

Aayush Mishra, David Joffe, Sankara Surendra Telidevara et al.

Recent studies have shown promising results in the detection of Mild Cognitive Impairment (MCI) using easily accessible Electroencephalogram (EEG) data which would help administer early and effective treatment for dementia patients. However, the reliability and practicality of such systems remains unclear. In this work, we investigate the potential limitations and challenges in developing a robust MCI detection method using two contrasting datasets: 1) CAUEEG, collected and annotated by expert neurologists in controlled settings and 2) GENEEG, a new dataset collected and annotated in general practice clinics, a setting where routine MCI diagnoses are typically made. We find that training on small datasets, as is done by most previous works, tends to produce high variance models that make overconfident predictions, and are unreliable in practice. Additionally, distribution shifts between datasets make cross-domain generalization challenging. Finally, we show that MCI detection using EEG may suffer from fundamental limitations because of the overlapping nature of feature distributions with control groups. We call for more effort in high-quality data collection in actionable settings (like general practice clinics) to make progress towards this salient goal of non-invasive MCI detection.

Anton Orlichenko, Gang Qu, Ziyu Zhou et al.

Objective: fMRI and derived measures such as functional connectivity (FC) have been used to predict brain age, general fluid intelligence, psychiatric disease status, and preclinical neurodegenerative disease. However, it is not always clear that all demographic confounds, such as age, sex, and race, have been removed from fMRI data. Additionally, many fMRI datasets are restricted to authorized researchers, making dissemination of these valuable data sources challenging. Methods: We create a variational autoencoder (VAE)-based model, DemoVAE, to decorrelate fMRI features from demographics and generate high-quality synthetic fMRI data based on user-supplied demographics. We train and validate our model using two large, widely used datasets, the Philadelphia Neurodevelopmental Cohort (PNC) and Bipolar and Schizophrenia Network for Intermediate Phenotypes (BSNIP). Results: We find that DemoVAE recapitulates group differences in fMRI data while capturing the full breadth of individual variations. Significantly, we also find that most clinical and computerized battery fields that are correlated with fMRI data are not correlated with DemoVAE latents. An exception are several fields related to schizophrenia medication and symptom severity. Conclusion: Our model generates fMRI data that captures the full distribution of FC better than traditional VAE or GAN models. We also find that most prediction using fMRI data is dependent on correlation with, and prediction of, demographics. Significance: Our DemoVAE model allows for generation of high quality synthetic data conditioned on subject demographics as well as the removal of the confounding effects of demographics. We identify that FC-based prediction tasks are highly influenced by demographic confounds.

Yihong Guo, Hao Liu, Yisong Yue et al.

We introduce a distributionally robust approach that enhances the reliability of offline policy evaluation in contextual bandits under general covariate shifts. Our method aims to deliver robust policy evaluation results in the presence of discrepancies in both context and policy distribution between logging and target data. Central to our methodology is the application of robust regression, a distributionally robust technique tailored here to improve the estimation of conditional reward distribution from logging data. Utilizing the reward model obtained from robust regression, we develop a comprehensive suite of policy value estimators, by integrating our reward model into established evaluation frameworks, namely direct methods and doubly robust methods. Through theoretical analysis, we further establish that the proposed policy value estimators offer a finite sample upper bound for the bias, providing a clear advantage over traditional methods, especially when the shift is large. Finally, we designed an extensive range of policy evaluation scenarios, covering diverse magnitudes of shifts and a spectrum of logging and target policies. Our empirical results indicate that our approach significantly outperforms baseline methods, most notably in 90% of the cases under the policy shift-only settings and 72% of the scenarios under the general covariate shift settings.

Maya Srikanth, Anqi Liu, Nicholas Adams-Cohen et al.

Tracking and collecting fast-evolving online discussions provides vast data for studying social media usage and its role in people's public lives. However, collecting social media data using a static set of keywords fails to satisfy the growing need to monitor dynamic conversations and to study fast-changing topics. We propose a dynamic keyword search method to maximize the coverage of relevant information in fast-evolving online discussions. The method uses word embedding models to represent the semantic relations between keywords and predictive models to forecast the future time series. We also implement a visual user interface to aid in the decision-making process in each round of keyword updates. This allows for both human-assisted tracking and fully-automated data collection. In simulations using historical #MeToo data in 2017, our human-assisted tracking method outperforms the traditional static baseline method significantly, with 37.1% higher F-1 score than traditional static monitors in tracking the top trending keywords. We conduct a contemporary case study to cover dynamic conversations about the recent Presidential Inauguration and to test the dynamic data collection system. Our case studies reflect the effectiveness of our process and also points to the potential challenges in future deployment.

Anqi Liu, Hao Liu, Tongxin Li et al.

Discovering the complete set of causal relations among a group of variables is a challenging unsupervised learning problem. Often, this challenge is compounded by the fact that there are latent or hidden confounders. When only observational data is available, the problem is ill-posed, i.e. the causal relationships are non-identifiable unless strong modeling assumptions are made. When interventions are available, we provide guarantees on identifiability and learnability under mild assumptions. We assume a linear structural equation model (SEM) with independent latent factors and directed acyclic graph (DAG) relationships among the observables. Since the latent variable inference is based on independent component analysis (ICA), we call this model SEM-ICA. We use the method of moments principle to establish model identifiability. We develop efficient algorithms based on coupled tensor decomposition with linear constraints to obtain scalable and guaranteed solutions. Thus, we provide a principled approach to tackling the joint problem of causal discovery and latent variable inference.

Ashkan Rezaei, Anqi Liu, Omid Memarrast et al.

Making predictions that are fair with regard to protected group membership (race, gender, age, etc.) has become an important requirement for classification algorithms. Existing techniques derive a fair model from sampled labeled data relying on the assumption that training and testing data are identically and independently drawn (iid) from the same distribution. In practice, distribution shift can and does occur between training and testing datasets as the characteristics of individuals interacting with the machine learning system change. We investigate fairness under covariate shift, a relaxation of the iid assumption in which the inputs or covariates change while the conditional label distribution remains the same. We seek fair decisions under these assumptions on target data with unknown labels. We propose an approach that obtains the predictor that is robust to the worst-case in terms of target performance while satisfying target fairness requirements and matching statistical properties of the source data. We demonstrate the benefits of our approach on benchmark prediction tasks.

Haoxuan Wang, Zhiding Yu, Yisong Yue et al.

We propose a framework for learning calibrated uncertainties under domain shifts, where the source (training) distribution differs from the target (test) distribution. We detect such domain shifts via a differentiable density ratio estimator and train it together with the task network, composing an adjusted softmax predictive form concerning domain shift. In particular, the density ratio estimation reflects the closeness of a target (test) sample to the source (training) distribution. We employ it to adjust the uncertainty of prediction in the task network. This idea of using the density ratio is based on the distributionally robust learning (DRL) framework, which accounts for the domain shift by adversarial risk minimization. We show that our proposed method generates calibrated uncertainties that benefit downstream tasks, such as unsupervised domain adaptation (UDA) and semi-supervised learning (SSL). On these tasks, methods like self-training and FixMatch use uncertainties to select confident pseudo-labels for re-training. Our experiments show that the introduction of DRL leads to significant improvements in cross-domain performance. We also show that the estimated density ratios align with human selection frequencies, suggesting a positive correlation with a proxy of human perceived uncertainties.

Eric Zhao, Anqi Liu, Animashree Anandkumar et al.

We address the problem of active learning under label shift: when the class proportions of source and target domains differ. We introduce a "medial distribution" to incorporate a tradeoff between importance weighting and class-balanced sampling and propose their combined usage in active learning. Our method is known as Mediated Active Learning under Label Shift (MALLS). It balances the bias from class-balanced sampling and the variance from importance weighting. We prove sample complexity and generalization guarantees for MALLS which show active learning reduces asymptotic sample complexity even under arbitrary label shift. We empirically demonstrate MALLS scales to high-dimensional datasets and can reduce the sample complexity of active learning by 60% in deep active learning tasks.

Yashwanth Kumar Nakka, Anqi Liu, Guanya Shi et al.

Learning-based control algorithms require data collection with abundant supervision for training. Safe exploration algorithms ensure the safety of this data collection process even when only partial knowledge is available. We present a new approach for optimal motion planning with safe exploration that integrates chance-constrained stochastic optimal control with dynamics learning and feedback control. We derive an iterative convex optimization algorithm that solves an \underline{Info}rmation-cost \underline{S}tochastic \underline{N}onlinear \underline{O}ptimal \underline{C}ontrol problem (Info-SNOC). The optimization objective encodes control cost for performance and exploration cost for learning, and the safety is incorporated as distributionally robust chance constraints. The dynamics are predicted from a robust regression model that is learned from data. The Info-SNOC algorithm is used to compute a sub-optimal pool of safe motion plans that aid in exploration for learning unknown residual dynamics under safety constraints. A stable feedback controller is used to execute the motion plan and collect data for model learning. We prove the safety of rollout from our exploration method and reduction in uncertainty over epochs, thereby guaranteeing the consistency of our learning method. We validate the effectiveness of Info-SNOC by designing and implementing a pool of safe trajectories for a planar robot. We demonstrate that our approach has higher success rate in ensuring safety when compared to a deterministic trajectory optimization approach.

Anqi Liu, Hao Liu, Anima Anandkumar et al.

We propose a robust regression approach to off-policy evaluation (OPE) for contextual bandits. We frame OPE as a covariate-shift problem and leverage modern robust regression tools. Ours is a general approach that can be used to augment any existing OPE method that utilizes the direct method. When augmenting doubly robust methods, we call the resulting method Triply Robust. We prove upper bounds on the resulting bias and variance, as well as derive novel minimax bounds based on robust minimax analysis for covariate shift. Our robust regression method is compatible with deep learning, and is thus applicable to complex OPE settings that require powerful function approximators. Finally, we demonstrate superior empirical performance across the standard OPE benchmarks, especially in the case where the logging policy is unknown and must be estimated from data.

Anqi Liu, Maya Srikanth, Nicholas Adams-Cohen et al.

Online harassment is a significant social problem. Prevention of online harassment requires rapid detection of harassing, offensive, and negative social media posts. In this paper, we propose the use of word embedding models to identify offensive and harassing social media messages in two aspects: detecting fast-changing topics for more effective data collection and representing word semantics in different domains. We demonstrate with preliminary results that using the GloVe (Global Vectors for Word Representation) model facilitates the discovery of new and relevant keywords to use for data collection and trolling detection. Our paper concludes with a discussion of a research agenda to further develop and test word embedding models for identification of social media harassment and trolling.

Anqi Liu, Guanya Shi, Soon-Jo Chung et al.

We study the problem of safe learning and exploration in sequential control problems. The goal is to safely collect data samples from operating in an environment, in order to learn to achieve a challenging control goal (e.g., an agile maneuver close to a boundary). A central challenge in this setting is how to quantify uncertainty in order to choose provably-safe actions that allow us to collect informative data and reduce uncertainty, thereby achieving both improved controller safety and optimality. To address this challenge, we present a deep robust regression model that is trained to directly predict the uncertainty bounds for safe exploration. We derive generalization bounds for learning, and connect them with safety and stability bounds in control. We demonstrate empirically that our robust regression approach can outperform the conventional Gaussian process (GP) based safe exploration in settings where it is difficult to specify a good GP prior.

Quanying Liu, Haiyan Wu, Anqi Liu

We model human decision-making behaviors in a risk-taking task using inverse reinforcement learning (IRL) for the purposes of understanding real human decision making under risk. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first work applying IRL to reveal the implicit reward function in human risk-taking decision making and to interpret risk-prone and risk-averse decision-making policies. We hypothesize that the state history (e.g. rewards and decisions in previous trials) are related to the human reward function, which leads to risk-averse and risk-prone decisions. We design features that reflect these factors in the reward function of IRL and learn the corresponding weight that is interpretable as the importance of features. The results confirm the sub-optimal risk-related decisions of human-driven by the personalized reward function. In particular, the risk-prone person tends to decide based on the current pump number, while the risk-averse person relies on burst information from the previous trial and the average end status. Our results demonstrate that IRL is an effective tool to model human decision-making behavior, as well as to help interpret the human psychological process in risk decision-making.

Kamyar Azizzadenesheli, Anqi Liu, Fanny Yang et al.

We propose Regularized Learning under Label shifts (RLLS), a principled and a practical domain-adaptation algorithm to correct for shifts in the label distribution between a source and a target domain. We first estimate importance weights using labeled source data and unlabeled target data, and then train a classifier on the weighted source samples. We derive a generalization bound for the classifier on the target domain which is independent of the (ambient) data dimensions, and instead only depends on the complexity of the function class. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first generalization bound for the label-shift problem where the labels in the target domain are not available. Based on this bound, we propose a regularized estimator for the small-sample regime which accounts for the uncertainty in the estimated weights. Experiments on the CIFAR-10 and MNIST datasets show that RLLS improves classification accuracy, especially in the low sample and large-shift regimes, compared to previous methods.

Rizal Fathony, Kaiser Asif, Anqi Liu et al.

We propose a robust adversarial prediction framework for general multiclass classification. Our method seeks predictive distributions that robustly optimize non-convex and non-continuous multiclass loss metrics against the worst-case conditional label distributions (the adversarial distributions) that (approximately) match the statistics of the training data. Although the optimized loss metrics are non-convex and non-continuous, the dual formulation of the framework is a convex optimization problem that can be recast as a risk minimization model with a prescribed convex surrogate loss we call the adversarial surrogate loss. We show that the adversarial surrogate losses fill an existing gap in surrogate loss construction for general multiclass classification problems, by simultaneously aligning better with the original multiclass loss, guaranteeing Fisher consistency, enabling a way to incorporate rich feature spaces via the kernel trick, and providing competitive performance in practice.

Anqi Liu, Rizal Fathony, Brian D. Ziebart

Under covariate shift, training (source) data and testing (target) data differ in input space distribution, but share the same conditional label distribution. This poses a challenging machine learning task. Robust Bias-Aware (RBA) prediction provides the conditional label distribution that is robust to the worstcase logarithmic loss for the target distribution while matching feature expectation constraints from the source distribution. However, employing RBA with insufficient feature constraints may result in high certainty predictions for much of the source data, while leaving too much uncertainty for target data predictions. To overcome this issue, we extend the representer theorem to the RBA setting, enabling minimization of regularized expected target risk by a reweighted kernel expectation under the source distribution. By applying kernel methods, we establish consistency guarantees and demonstrate better performance of the RBA classifier than competing methods on synthetically biased UCI datasets as well as datasets that have natural covariate shift.

Anqi Liu, Brian D. Ziebart

Covariate shift relaxes the widely-employed independent and identically distributed (IID) assumption by allowing different training and testing input distributions. Unfortunately, common methods for addressing covariate shift by trying to remove the bias between training and testing distributions using importance weighting often provide poor performance guarantees in theory and unreliable predictions with high variance in practice. Recently developed methods that construct a predictor that is inherently robust to the difficulties of learning under covariate shift are restricted to minimizing logloss and can be too conservative when faced with high-dimensional learning tasks. We address these limitations in two ways: by robustly minimizing various loss functions, including non-convex ones, under the testing distribution; and by separately shaping the influence of covariate shift according to different feature-based views of the relationship between input variables and example labels. These generalizations make robust covariate shift prediction applicable to more task scenarios. We demonstrate the benefits on classification under covariate shift tasks.