Yufan Zhang

Yufan Zhang, Honglin Wen, Qiuwei Wu et al.

Prediction intervals offer an effective tool for quantifying the uncertainty of loads in distribution systems. The traditional central PIs cannot adapt well to skewed distributions, and their offline training fashion is vulnerable to unforeseen changes in future load patterns. Therefore, we propose an optimal PI estimation approach, which is online and adaptive to different data distributions by adaptively determining symmetric or asymmetric probability proportion pairs for quantiles. It relies on the online learning ability of reinforcement learning to integrate the two online tasks, i.e., the adaptive selection of probability proportion pairs and quantile predictions, both of which are modeled by neural networks. As such, the quality of quantiles-formed PI can guide the selection process of optimal probability proportion pairs, which forms a closed loop to improve the quality of PIs. Furthermore, to improve the learning efficiency of quantile forecasts, a prioritized experience replay strategy is proposed for online quantile regression processes. Case studies on both load and net load demonstrate that the proposed method can better adapt to data distribution compared with online central PIs method. Compared with offline-trained methods, it obtains PIs with better quality and is more robust against concept drift.

Christopher Bogart, Aparna Warrier, Arav Agarwal et al.

As artificial intelligence (AI) systems become ubiquitous in professional contexts, there is an urgent need to equip workers, often with backgrounds outside of STEM, with the skills to use these tools effectively as well as responsibly, that is, to be AI literate. However, prevailing definitions and therefore assessments of AI literacy often emphasize foundational technical knowledge, such as programming, mathematics, and statistics, over practical knowledge such as interpreting model outputs, selecting tools, or identifying ethical concerns. This leaves a noticeable gap in assessing someone's AI literacy for real-world job use. We propose a work-task-oriented assessment model for AI literacy which is grounded in the competencies required for effective use of AI tools in professional settings. We describe the development of a novel AI literacy assessment instrument, and accompanying formative assessments, in the context of a US Navy robotics training program. The program included training in robotics and AI literacy, as well as a competition with practical tasks and a multiple choice scenario task meant to simulate use of AI in a job setting. We found that, as a measure of applied AI literacy, the competition's scenario task outperformed the tests we adopted from past research or developed ourselves. We argue that when training people for AI-related work, educators should consider evaluating them with instruments that emphasize highly contextualized practical skills rather than abstract technical knowledge, especially when preparing workers without technical backgrounds for AI-integrated roles.

Xuan He, Honglin Wen, Yufan Zhang et al.

Unit commitment (UC) are essential tools to transmission system operators for finding the most economical and feasible generation schedules and dispatch signals. Constraint screening has been receiving attention as it holds the promise for reducing a number of inactive or redundant constraints in the UC problem, so that the solution process of large scale UC problem can be accelerated by considering the reduced optimization problem. Standard constraint screening approach relies on optimizing over load and generations to find binding line flow constraints, yet the screening is conservative with a large percentage of constraints still reserved for the UC problem. In this paper, we propose a novel machine learning (ML) model to predict the most economical costs given load inputs. Such ML model bridges the cost perspectives of UC decisions to the optimization-based constraint screening model, and can screen out higher proportion of operational constraints. We verify the proposed method's performance on both sample-aware and sample-agnostic setting, and illustrate the proposed scheme can further reduce the computation time on a variety of setup for UC problems.

Kihyuk Hong, Woojin Chae, Yufan Zhang et al.

We study the problem of infinite-horizon average-reward reinforcement learning with linear Markov decision processes (MDPs). The associated Bellman operator of the problem not being a contraction makes the algorithm design challenging. Previous approaches either suffer from computational inefficiency or require strong assumptions on dynamics, such as ergodicity, for achieving a regret bound of $\widetilde{O}(\sqrt{T})$. In this paper, we propose the first algorithm that achieves $\widetilde{O}(\sqrt{T})$ regret with computational complexity polynomial in the problem parameters, without making strong assumptions on dynamics. Our approach approximates the average-reward setting by a discounted MDP with a carefully chosen discounting factor, and then applies an optimistic value iteration. We propose an algorithmic structure that plans for a nonstationary policy through optimistic value iteration and follows that policy until a specified information metric in the collected data doubles. Additionally, we introduce a value function clipping procedure for limiting the span of the value function for sample efficiency.

Yufan Zhang, Honglin Wen, Yuexin Bian et al.

Large penetration of renewable energy sources (RESs) brings huge uncertainty into the electricity markets. The current deterministic clearing approach in the day-ahead (DA) market, where RESs participate based on expected production, has been criticized for causing a lack of coordination between the DA and real-time (RT) markets, leading to high overall operating costs. Previous works indicate that improving day-ahead RES entering quantities can significantly mitigate the drawbacks of deterministic clearing. In this work, we propose using a trained forecasting model, referred to as value-oriented forecasting, to determine RES Improved Entering Quantities (RIEQ) more efficiently during the operational phase. Unlike traditional models that minimize statistical forecasting errors, our approach trains model parameters to minimize the expected overall operating costs across both DA and RT markets. We derive the exact form of the loss function used for training, which becomes piecewise linear when market clearing is modeled by linear programs. Additionally, we provide the analytical gradient of the loss function with respect to the forecast, enabling an efficient training strategy. Numerical studies demonstrate that our forecasts significantly reduce overall operating costs for deterministic market clearing compared to conventional forecasts based on expected RES production.

Woojin Chae, Kihyuk Hong, Yufan Zhang et al.

This paper proposes a computationally tractable algorithm for learning infinite-horizon average-reward linear mixture Markov decision processes (MDPs) under the Bellman optimality condition. Our algorithm for linear mixture MDPs achieves a nearly minimax optimal regret upper bound of $\widetilde{\mathcal{O}}(d\sqrt{\mathrm{sp}(v^*)T})$ over $T$ time steps where $\mathrm{sp}(v^*)$ is the span of the optimal bias function $v^*$ and $d$ is the dimension of the feature mapping. Our algorithm applies the recently developed technique of running value iteration on a discounted-reward MDP approximation with clipping by the span. We prove that the value iteration procedure, even with the clipping operation, converges. Moreover, we show that the associated variance term due to random transitions can be bounded even under clipping. Combined with the weighted ridge regression-based parameter estimation scheme, this leads to the nearly minimax optimal regret guarantee.

Raj Kolamuri, Zilin Si, Yufan Zhang et al.

Rotational displacement about the grasping point is a common grasp failure when an object is grasped at a location away from its center of gravity. Tactile sensors with soft surfaces, such as GelSight sensors, can detect the rotation patterns on the contacting surfaces when the object rotates. In this work, we propose a model-based algorithm that detects those rotational patterns and measures rotational displacement using the GelSight sensor. We also integrate the rotation detection feedback into a closed-loop regrasping framework, which detects the rotational failure of grasp in an early stage and drives the robot to a stable grasp pose. We validate our proposed rotation detection algorithm and grasp-regrasp system on self-collected dataset and online experiments to show how our approach accurately detects the rotation and increases grasp stability.