He He

Jiaxin Wen, Chenglei Si, Yueh-han Chen et al. · berkeley

Many promising-looking ideas in AI research fail to deliver, but their validation takes substantial human labor and compute. Predicting an idea's chance of success is thus crucial for accelerating empirical AI research, a skill that even expert researchers can only acquire through substantial experience. We build the first benchmark for this task and compare LMs with human experts. Concretely, given two research ideas (e.g., two jailbreaking methods), we aim to predict which will perform better on a set of benchmarks. We scrape ideas and experimental results from conference papers, yielding 1,585 human-verified idea pairs published after our base model's cut-off date for testing, and 6,000 pairs for training. We then develop a system that combines a fine-tuned GPT-4.1 with a paper retrieval agent, and we recruit 25 human experts to compare with. In the NLP domain, our system beats human experts by a large margin (64.4% v.s. 48.9%). On the full test set, our system achieves 77% accuracy, while off-the-shelf frontier LMs like o3 perform no better than random guessing, even with the same retrieval augmentation. We verify that our system does not exploit superficial features like idea complexity through extensive human-written and LM-designed robustness tests. Finally, we evaluate our system on unpublished novel ideas, including ideas generated by an AI ideation agent. Our system achieves 63.6% accuracy, demonstrating its potential as a reward model for improving idea generation models. Altogether, our results outline a promising new direction for LMs to accelerate empirical AI research.

He He, Nanyun Peng, Percy Liang

We tackle the problem of generating a pun sentence given a pair of homophones (e.g., "died" and "dyed"). Supervised text generation is inappropriate due to the lack of a large corpus of puns, and even if such a corpus existed, mimicry is at odds with generating novel content. In this paper, we propose an unsupervised approach to pun generation using a corpus of unhumorous text and what we call the local-global surprisal principle: we posit that in a pun sentence, there is a strong association between the pun word (e.g., "dyed") and the distant context, as well as a strong association between the alternative word (e.g., "died") and the immediate context. This contrast creates surprise and thus humor. We instantiate this principle for pun generation in two ways: (i) as a measure based on the ratio of probabilities under a language model, and (ii) a retrieve-and-edit approach based on words suggested by a skip-gram model. Human evaluation shows that our retrieve-and-edit approach generates puns successfully 31% of the time, tripling the success rate of a neural generation baseline.