Hanyu Zhang

Marina Meilă, Hanyu Zhang

Manifold learning (ML), known also as non-linear dimension reduction, is a set of methods to find the low dimensional structure of data. Dimension reduction for large, high dimensional data is not merely a way to reduce the data; the new representations and descriptors obtained by ML reveal the geometric shape of high dimensional point clouds, and allow one to visualize, de-noise and interpret them. This survey presents the principles underlying ML, the representative methods, as well as their statistical foundations from a practicing statistician's perspective. It describes the trade-offs, and what theory tells us about the parameter and algorithmic choices we make in order to obtain reliable conclusions.

Ritesh Ojha, Wenbo Chen, Hanyu Zhang et al.

The load planning problem is a critical challenge in service network design for parcel carriers: it decides how many trailers to assign for dispatch over time between pairs of terminals. Another key challenge is to determine a flow plan, which specifies how parcel volumes are assigned to planned loads. This paper considers the Outbound Load Planning Problem (OLPP) that considers flow and load planning challenges jointly in order to adjust loads and flows as the demand forecast changes over time before the day of operations in a terminal. The paper aims at developing a decision-support tool to inform planners making these decisions at terminals across the network. The paper formulates the OLPP as a mixed-integer programming model and shows that it admits a large number of symmetries in a network where each commodity can be routed through primary and alternate terminals. As a result, an optimization solver may return fundamentally different solutions to closely related problems, confusing planners and reducing trust in optimization. To remedy this limitation, this paper proposes a lexicographical optimization approach that eliminates those symmetries by generating optimal solutions staying close to a reference plan. Moreover, this paper designs an optimization proxy that addresses the computational challenges of the optimization model. The optimization proxy combines a machine-learning model and a repair procedure to find near-optimal solutions that satisfy real-time constraints imposed by planners in the loop. An extensive computational study on industrial instances shows that the optimization proxy is orders of magnitude faster for generating solutions that are consistent with each other. The proposed approach also demonstrates the benefits of the OLPP for load consolidation and the significant savings obtained from combining machine learning and optimization.

Wenxuan Yang, Hanyu Zhang, Weimin Tan et al.

Self-supervised pre-training medical foundation models on large-scale datasets demonstrate exceptional performance. Recent research challenges this common paradigm by introducing data-effective learning approaches, demonstrating that merely increasing pre-training data volume does not necessarily improve model performance. However, current methods still have unclear standards and the underlying theoretical foundation remains unknown. In this paper, as the first attempt to address this limitation, we introduce V-information into self-supervised pre-training of foundation models to provide a theoretical foundation for sample selection. Our derivation confirms that by optimizing V-information, sample selection can be framed as an optimization problem where choosing diverse and challenging samples enhances model performance even under limited training data. Under this guidance, we develop an optimized data-effective learning method (OptiDEL) to optimize V-information in real-world medical domains by generating more diverse and harder samples. We compare the OptiDEL method with state-of-the-art approaches finding that OptiDEL consistently outperforms existing approaches across eight different datasets, with foundation models trained on only 5% of the pre-training data achieving up to 6.2% higher mIoU than those trained on the full dataset. Remarkably, OptiDEL demonstrates an average improvement of 4.7% mIoU over competing methods while using 20x less training data.

Luke Bhan, Hanyu Zhang, Andrew Gordon Wilson et al.

Monitoring forecasting systems is critical for customer satisfaction, profitability, and operational efficiency in large-scale retail businesses. We propose The Forecast Critic, a system that leverages Large Language Models (LLMs) for automated forecast monitoring, taking advantage of their broad world knowledge and strong ``reasoning'' capabilities. As a prerequisite for this, we systematically evaluate the ability of LLMs to assess time series forecast quality, focusing on three key questions. (1) Can LLMs be deployed to perform forecast monitoring and identify obviously unreasonable forecasts? (2) Can LLMs effectively incorporate unstructured exogenous features to assess what a reasonable forecast looks like? (3) How does performance vary across model sizes and reasoning capabilities, measured across state-of-the-art LLMs? We present three experiments, including on both synthetic and real-world forecasting data. Our results show that LLMs can reliably detect and critique poor forecasts, such as those plagued by temporal misalignment, trend inconsistencies, and spike errors. The best-performing model we evaluated achieves an F1 score of 0.88, somewhat below human-level performance (F1 score: 0.97). We also demonstrate that multi-modal LLMs can effectively incorporate unstructured contextual signals to refine their assessment of the forecast. Models correctly identify missing or spurious promotional spikes when provided with historical context about past promotions (F1 score: 0.84). Lastly, we demonstrate that these techniques succeed in identifying inaccurate forecasts on the real-world M5 time series dataset, with unreasonable forecasts having an sCRPS at least 10% higher than that of reasonable forecasts. These findings suggest that LLMs, even without domain-specific fine-tuning, may provide a viable and scalable option for automated forecast monitoring and evaluation.

Ethan Baron, Boris Oreshkin, Ruijun Ma et al.

Many time series applications require access to multi-step forecast trajectories in the form of sample paths. Recently, time series foundation models have leveraged multi-step lookahead predictions to improve the quality and efficiency of multi-step forecasts. However, these models only predict independent marginal distributions for each time step, rather than a full joint predictive distribution. To generate forecast sample paths with realistic correlation structures, one typically resorts to autoregressive sampling, which can be extremely expensive. In this paper, we present a copula-based approach to efficiently generate accurate, correlated sample paths from existing multi-step time series foundation models in one forward pass. Our copula-based approach generates correlated sample paths orders of magnitude faster than autoregressive sampling, and it yields improved sample path quality by mitigating the snowballing error phenomenon.

Marina Meilă, Hanyu Zhang

We address the problem of validating the ouput of clustering algorithms. Given data $\mathcal{D}$ and a partition $\mathcal{C}$ of these data into $K$ clusters, when can we say that the clusters obtained are correct or meaningful for the data? This paper introduces a paradigm in which a clustering $\mathcal{C}$ is considered meaningful if it is good with respect to a loss function such as the K-means distortion, and stable, i.e. the only good clustering up to small perturbations. Furthermore, we present a generic method to obtain post-inference guarantees of near-optimality and stability for a clustering $\mathcal{C}$. The method can be instantiated for a variety of clustering criteria (also called loss functions) for which convex relaxations exist. Obtaining the guarantees amounts to solving a convex optimization problem. We demonstrate the practical relevance of this method by obtaining guarantees for the K-means and the Normalized Cut clustering criteria on realistic data sets. We also prove that asymptotic instability implies finite sample instability w.h.p., allowing inferences about the population clusterability from a sample. The guarantees do not depend on any distributional assumptions, but they depend on the data set $\mathcal{D}$ admitting a stable clustering.

Samson Koelle, Hanyu Zhang, Marina Meila et al.

Manifold embedding algorithms map high-dimensional data down to coordinates in a much lower-dimensional space. One of the aims of dimension reduction is to find intrinsic coordinates that describe the data manifold. The coordinates returned by the embedding algorithm are abstract, and finding their physical or domain-related meaning is not formalized and often left to domain experts. This paper studies the problem of recovering the meaning of the new low-dimensional representation in an automatic, principled fashion. We propose a method to explain embedding coordinates of a manifold as non-linear compositions of functions from a user-defined dictionary. We show that this problem can be set up as a sparse linear Group Lasso recovery problem, find sufficient recovery conditions, and demonstrate its effectiveness on data.