Zhen Li

Meng Ai, Zhuo Chen, Jibin Wang et al.

In the commercial sphere, such as operations and maintenance, advertising, and marketing recommendations, intelligent decision-making utilizing data mining and neural network technologies is crucial, especially in resource allocation to optimize ROI. This study delves into the Cost-aware Binary Treatment Assignment Problem (C-BTAP) across different industries, with a focus on the state-of-the-art Direct ROI Prediction (DRP) method. However, the DRP model confronts issues like covariate shift and insufficient training data, hindering its real-world effectiveness. Addressing these challenges is essential for ensuring dependable and robust predictions in varied operational contexts. This paper presents a robust Direct ROI Prediction (rDRP) method, designed to address challenges in real-world deployment of neural network-based uplift models, particularly under conditions of covariate shift and insufficient training data. The rDRP method, enhancing the standard DRP model, does not alter the model's structure or require retraining. It utilizes conformal prediction and Monte Carlo dropout for interval estimation, adapting to model uncertainty and data distribution shifts. A heuristic calibration method, inspired by a Kaggle competition, combines point and interval estimates. The effectiveness of these approaches is validated through offline tests and online A/B tests in various settings, demonstrating significant improvements in target rewards compared to the state-of-the-art method.

Jun Xu, Qinghua Tao, Zhen Li et al.

In this paper, the efficient hinging hyperplanes (EHH) neural network is proposed based on the model of hinging hyperplanes (HH). The EHH neural network is a distributed representation, the training of which involves solving several convex optimization problems and is fast. It is proved that for every EHH neural network, there is an equivalent adaptive hinging hyperplanes (AHH) tree, which was also proposed based on the model of HH and find good applications in system identification. The construction of the EHH neural network includes 2 stages. First the initial structure of the EHH neural network is randomly determined and the Lasso regression is used to choose the appropriate network. To alleviate the impact of randomness, secondly, the stacking strategy is employed to formulate a more general network structure. Different from other neural networks, the EHH neural network has interpretability ability, which can be easily obtained through its ANOVA decomposition (or interaction matrix). The interpretability can then be used as a suggestion for input variable selection. The EHH neural network is applied in nonlinear system identification, the simulation results show that the regression vector selected is reasonable and the identification speed is fast, while at the same time, the simulation accuracy is satisfactory.